Cubs vs Reds Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (August 18)

• The Cincinnati Reds are home favorites over the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday afternoon
• The Reds trot out Tyler Mahle (10-3, 3.58) to the mound to face Adrian Sampson
• The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction

The Cincinnati Reds try to stay hot in August — and remain a factor in the National League Wild Card standings — against the Chicago Cubs at 12:35 pm ET on Wednesday on getaway day of a three-game series at the Great American Ballpark.

Cincinnati beat Chicago 14-5 Monday in the first game of the series that saw Jonathan India go 3-for-5 (including a three-run homer) and drive in five runs and Joey Votto pick up career hit No. 2,000. With Tyler Mahle enjoying a breakout season — and the games starting a pitcher that has not pitched in a big league game since 2019 in Sampson, the Reds are heavy favorites Wednesday.

The Reds were 10-5 in August entering play Tuesday night, while the Cubs have gone into a complete tailspin since they essentially traded their entire team away at the deadline. The 2016 World Series champions — which seems like 1908 all over again for Cubs fans — have gone 1-14 this month (losing 12 straight) entering Tuesday.

Reds vs Cubs Odds

Odds as of August 17th at DraftKings.

Probable Pitchers

On the mound, Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle (10-3, 3.58) faces Adrian Sampson, who is making his first appearance in a big-league game since 2019 and pitched in the KBO last season.

Mahle has had a breakout season in 2021, earning double-digit victories for the first time in his career. Only eight of his 24 starts have been of the quality variety, but he’s definitely trending in the right direction  Cincy anagram David Bell is clearly getting more confidence in the big righty, stretching him out as the season has wore on.

After throwing under 100 pitches in 12 of his first 13 starts, he’s eclipsed the century mark in eight of his last 11 outings. Mahle is also coming off recording quality starts in consecutive outings for the first time this season.

Sampson vs Mahle Key Stats

Mahle owns a 2-0 record  and 1.29 ERA against the Pirates and Phillies. He was especially sharp against Philly last Friday in his previous outing. The 26-year-old tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing only three hits and no walks while striking out seven in an eventual 6-1 victory against a division-leading team in their park.

Mahle, however, has not been especially sharp at the GAB, sporting a 3-2 mark with a 5.74 ERA in 11 home starts this season. In ten day game starts, he has a 5-3 record and 4.58 ERA.

As for Sampson, the 29-year-old journeyman has not thrown a pitch in a Major League Baseball game since September 27, 2019, as a member of the Rangers bullpen. He owns a 6-12 career record and 5.71 ERA in 41 appearances (20 starts). He pitched in the Korean Baseball Organization in 2020, going 9-12 with a 5.40 ERA in 25 starts over 130.0 innings for the Lotte Giants.

Needless to say, the announcement of his impending big-league return drew sharp reaction on Twitter.

Congratulations to Adrian Sampson, who was the 15th caller on the Eric In The Morning Show and won a start with the #Cubs https://t.co/tdfSPWWGAl

— Fully Krausened (@fullykrausened1) August 17, 2021

And, if that wasn’t cruel enough, thee was this.

Wow they called up the Iowa Cubs bat boy Adrian Sampson to start tomorrow’s game for the #Cubs pic.twitter.com/KEXai9gBlM

— Dylan Heuer (@dylan_heuer) August 17, 2021

Tale of Two Teams

August has been very different for these two teams, with Chicago essentially waving the white flag (and not the one with a “W” on it that waves on the center-field flag pole at Wrigley after home victories) followings the July 31st trade deadline. Manager David Ross’ club has only won one game this month, while fielding a less-than-competitive roster.

Meantime, the Reds are in third place (trailing San Diego by 1.5 games) in the NL Wild Card standings behind only the Dodgers and Padres and hold a 2.5-game lead over the Cardinals. India has been hot for the home team, posting consecutive three-hit games entering Tuesday’s affair.

And with the Cubs trading away players like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez, not many players in their current lineup have faced Mahle.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

NOTE: Sampson has only pitched to two batters in Cincinnati’s projected lineup Wednesday

As you might expect, Sampson — who pitched in the American League prior to his one year in South Korea — doesn’t have much of a record against Cincy. Tyler Naquin (1-for-2, RBI) and Mike Moustakas (0-for-1).

Cubs vs Reds Pick

It may seem harsh, but the fact of the matter is bettors should bet against the Cubs in virtually every game the rest of the season. I say “virtually” because the North Siders may have a chance in games Kyle Hendricks starts. Plus, with Mahle coming into his own this season — and especially of late — this is a clear-cut mismatch.

With the Reds very much in the thick of the postseason hunt and at home (where they own a 32-27 mark), I’m fading the Cubs in a major way in this spot.

The Pick: Reds moneyline (-265)