Should David Price Opting Out Hurt Dodgers’ World Series Odds?
- David Price announced on Saturday he would not be participating in the 2020 season
- Price was slotted in as the Dodgers number three starter
- We discuss whether his absence affects their World Series odds
When the Dodgers acquired David Price alongside Mookie Betts this past winter, they were able to shore up a starting rotation that had taken some hits.
The oft-injured Rich Hill and pseudo-starter Kenta Maeda departed over the off-season, which put Price behind Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler.
But now Price has announced that he won’t play in 2020 due to Covid-19. So does losing their third starter hurt LA’s World Series odds?
2020 World Series Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +375 |
| New York Yankees | +450 |
| Houston Astros | +1200 |
| Minnesota Twins | +2000 |
| Atlanta Braves | +2200 |
| Oakland A’s | +2200 |
| New York Mets | +2500 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +2500 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +2800 |
| Chicago White Sox | +3000 |
| Washington Nationals | +3000 |
Odds as of July 4th.
While they’ve been flip-flopping with the Yankees for the past few months, the Dodgers currently top the board when it comes to the 2020 World Series odds.
— David Price (@DAVIDprice24) July 4, 2020
From their stacked lineup featuring reigning MVP Cody Bellinger, to a rotation topped by Kershaw and Buehler, there’s lots of reasons to like LA.
But in a shortened season, where many think pitching will be paramount, how big of a blow is the loss of Dave Price?
Red Sox Drama Behind David Price
When Price initially signed with the Red Sox, he was looked at as a savior.
But things didn’t go quite to plan. Feuds with the media and struggles on the field got in the way. Despite winning a World Series in 2018, Price couldn’t escape his previous playoff struggles, and seemed at odds with the press.
David Price: Red Sox vs Career
| 103 (98) | Games (Starts) | 218 (213) |
| 46-24 | Record | 104-56 |
| 3.84 | ERA | 3.09 |
| 1.204 | WHIP | 1.132 |
| 9.3 | K/9 | 8.6 |
| 2.4 | BB/9 | 2.3 |
Outside of his K/9, Price’s numbers look much better outside of Boston than they do with the Re d Sox. If you remove the first 28 games of his career, his ERA drops to 2.97 and his K/9 rise to 8.7, closing the gap even further.
[Just so we’re all up to speed]
Globe: How about that David Price spat from 2 yrs ago?
Eck: Screw David Price
Price: I tried to apologize. You bailed. No one likes you.
Shaughnessy: aKtUaLlY his teammates liked him!
Boston media: WHOA, David! Eck’s teammates liked him. Wtf dude?— Dan O'Mara (@Dan_OMara) July 17, 2019
But we also have to consider that Price turned 30 his first year in Boston so a dip was inevitable. And outside of his 2018 season, Price’s numbers were perfectly fine for a third starter.
So what do the Dodgers do?
No Shortage of Options After David Price
The good thing for LA is that they’re in pretty good shape behind Price, with a couple of question marks.
Dodgers Remaining Starting Options Career Stats
| Pitcher | Starts | Record | ERA | WHIP | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Urias | 28 | 9-7 | 2.49 | 1.283 | 187/72 |
| Alex Wood | 136 | 53-43 | 3.40 | 1.223 | 768/238 |
| Dustin May | 4 | 2-3 | 3.63 | 1.096 | 32/5 |
| Tony Gonsolin | 6 | 4-2 | 2.93 | 1.025 | 37/15 |
| Ross Stripling | 52 | 20-24 | 3.51 | 1.196 | 377/91 |
| Jimmy Nelson | 107 | 33-46 | 4.22 | 1.372 | 578/240 |
Urias bumps up to the third spot in the rotation. A quick glance at his numbers presents one season of sustained MLB success. But the former top prospect has actually thrown 63 games in the majors, along with five postseason appearances.
He should be a safe bet.
With David Price opting out, the back end of the Dodgers rotation gets even more interesting. More length is available for Julio Urias and Alex Wood, and one of Dustin May, Ross Stripling and (less likely) Tony Gonsolin will have a rotation spot of his own.
— Scott White (@CBSScottWhite) July 4, 2020
Wood is just hoping a return to the Dodgers fixes what went wrong in 2019. Injuries and a 5.80 ERA ruined his lone year with the Reds. But LA knew what they were getting when they brought him back and Dave Roberts quickly named him a starter.
Given the options, the Dodgers may run with youngsters May orGonsolin as fifth starters, insulating them with a strong bullpen.
Where Dodgers Sit in World Series Picture
With their top two starters intact, nothing changes for LA with David Price sitting out.
Wood’s career numbers are better than Price’s last four years, and the Dodgers have been grooming Urias for this.
If you were riding the Dodgers before, there’s no reason to panic. They should be able to maintain their dominance.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
