Guardians vs Tigers Odds & Picks (July 4)
- The Cleveland Guardians are -140 road favorites over the Detroit Tigers in an American League afternoon game slated for Monday, July 4
- It’s the first game of a day-night twinbill
- The Guardians vs Tigers odds and best bets are analyzed in the following story
The Detroit Tigers (30-47, 19-24 home) own a winning record (3-2) against the Cleveland Guardians (40-36 , 20-19 away) this season and that’s saying something. Winning and the Tigers are two words not often found together in the same sentence this season.
Only two American League teams show a worse record than Detroit’s 30-47 slate. However, the 19-24 home mark fashioned by the Tigers is better than five other AL clubs.
Cleveland, though, is among three AL Central teams with winning road records and oddsmakers are listing the Guardians as -140 away favorites in the opener of a doubleheader against Detroit. Cleveland is an impressive 10-3 straight up as a road favorite this season.
First pitch at Comerica Park is set for 1:10pm ET on Monday, July 4. Clear skies with 11 mph wind and a temperature of 87 degrees are in the weather forecast.
Guardians vs Tigers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | -140 | -1.5 (+122) | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Detroit Tigers | +118 | +1.5 (-145) | U 8.5 (-110) |
Odds as of July 3 at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook promo codes.
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At odds of -140, the Guardians are offering an implied probability of victory of 58.33% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Cleveland would deliver a payout of $17.10.
The MLB betting trends show that in the AL Division odds, Cleveland is +1300 to win the AL Central. Detroit is +8000 to win the AL Central. The MLB pennant odds show the Guardians at +3000 and the Tigers at +80000 to win the AL flag. Cleveland is at +8000 and Detroit is +100000 to win it all in the World Series odds.
Cleveland vs Detroit Probable Pitchers
Guardians right-hander Zach Plesac has one win over his last 11 starts dating back to April 22. He’s been a hard-luck pitcher of late. In his last three starts, Plesac is 0-1 despite posting a 1.00 ERA over that span.
Plesac’s analytics are not good. Among MLB hurlers, he’s in the bottom 3% in xSLG (.569), the bottom 4% in xBA (.305) and the bottom 5% in xERA (5.95), xwOBA (.389) and xwOBAcon (.447).
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Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA in seven road starts. He’s 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA in seven career starts against Detroit. At Comerica Park, Plesac is 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts.
Plesac vs Hill
| 2-5 | Record | 0-0 |
| 3.86 | ERA | 0.00 |
| 5.95 | xERA | 0.00 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 0.00 |
| 2.85 | SO/W Ratio | 0.00 |
With Rony Garcia going on the IL, the Tigers selected the contract of right-hander Garrett Hill from the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens. Hill, 26, gets the start in the opener of the twinbill and will be making his MLB debut.
Garrett Hill will make his MLB debut as Tigers starter for Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader vs. Cleveland. He’ll make at least 3 turns in rotation before Tigers reassess their pitching situation at All-Star break.
— Jason Beck (@beckjason) July 3, 2022
Rated the 21st-best prospect in the Detroit system by Baseball America, Hill shows a 4.06 ERA at Toledo to go with a 28.7% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 32.6% ground ball rate.
Combined with his numbers at Double-A Erie, Hill has struck out 98 batters in 69 innings pitched. Hill will be the fifth pitcher to make his MLB debut with the Tigers this season.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Tigers Batters | Batting Average vs Plesac | Guardians Batters | Batting Average vs Hill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Barnhart | .000 | Gabriel Arias | .000 |
| Javier Baez | .000 | Ernie Clement | .000 |
| Miguel Cabrera | .143 | Andres Gimenez | .000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | .231 | Steven Kwan | .000 |
| Harold Castro | .111 | Sandy Leon | .000 |
| Willi Castro | .400 | Luke Maille | .000 |
| Kody Clemens | .000 | Owen Miller | .000 |
| Riley Greene | .000 | Josh Naylor | .000 |
| Robbie Grossman | .250 | Richie Palacios | .000 |
| Eric Haase | .200 | Jose Ramirez | .000 |
| Victor Reyes | .429 | Franmil Reyes | .000 |
| Jonathan Schoop | .000 | Amed Rosario | .000 |
| Spencer Torkelson | .000 | Myles Straw | .000 |
Detroit’s Victor Reyes is 3-for-7 (.429) when facing Plesac. Willi Castro is 4-for-10 (.400) with an RBI. Eric Haase is only 1-for-5 against Pleasc but that one hit was a solo homer.
Since this is Hill’s MLB debut, no Cleveland batter has faced him before.
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction
Plesac has been solid this year against AL Central opponents and historically dominant against Detroit. However, this is Cleveland’s third doubleheader in six days. The Guardians are 1-3 in the previous four games. Overall, Cleveland is 4-8 SU over the past 12 games.
.@La_Mole_13 looking 💪 #ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/ZxH4FXYsMo
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) July 3, 2022
Hill wasn’t nearly as dominant with Toledo as he was with Erie. Another step up baseball’s ladder figures to have similar impact on his ability as he seeks to get big-league hitters out for the first time.
Detroit is 4-7 SU over the past 11 games and 4-9 through the past 13 home games.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-140)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
