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Marlins vs Nationals Odds, Picks & Predictions (July 4)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Jul 3, 2022 · 7:34 PM PDT

Miami Marlins third baseman Brian Anderson swinging the bat
Jul 3, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Miami Marlins third baseman Brian Anderson (15) hits an RBI single against the Washington Nationals during the tenth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Marlins are -115 home favorites over the Nationals on Monday
  • Rookie Braxton Garrett (1-3, 5.24) will pitch for Miami against fellow lefty Patrick Corbin (4-10, 6.06)
  • A look at the Marlins vs Nationals odds and matchup can be found below with a prediction

In the traditional Independence Day morning game in Washington, the Miami Marlins will try to sweep a four-game series from the Nationals when the teams meet at 11:05 am ET Monday at Nationals Park.

The Marlins (36-40, 17-24 road) ran their winning streak to four games with a 7-3 victory in 10 innings Sunday. The Nationals (29-51, 14-29 home) dropped their fourth game in a row.

Marlins vs Nationals Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Miami Marlins -115 -1.5 (+130) Over 9 (-115)/td>
Washington Nationals -105 +1.5 (-150) Under 9 (-105)

Odds as of July 3rd at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook promo codes.

 

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As a -115 favorite, Miami has an implied win probability of 53.49%. The Marlins’ World Series odds are +30000 and the Nationals are listed at +100000.

The weather forecast calls for sunny, a high temperature of 88 degrees and calm wind.

Miami vs Washington Probable Pitchers

In a matchup of left-handers, Marlins rookie Braxton Garrett (1-3, 5.24) is scheduled to start against Patrick Corbin (4-10, 6.06). Both will be pitching on five days of rest.

Garrett vs Corbin

Braxton Garrett
VS
Patrick Corbin
1-3 Record 4-10
5.24 ERA 6.06
4.49 xERA 6.00
1.70 WHIP 1.70
3.67 SO/W 2.50

Garrett has struggled over his last three starts with an 0-2 record and 6.08 ERA. He lost to the Cardinals on Tuesday in St. Louis as he was tagged for five runs and seven hits in 4.2 innings with five strikeouts and one walk.

This will be Garrett’s second career appearance against the Nationals. In 2020, he started and lost, getting rocked for five runs (four earned) in 2.2 innings. This will be Garrett’s first time pitching at Nationals Park.

Garrett is 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA in three road starts this season. In day games, he is 0-2 with 4.08 ERA in four starts.

Corbin tied his career high for strikeouts with 12 as he pitched eight innings to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday at home. He gave up one run, five hits and two walks.

This will be Corbin’s 17th career start versus the Marlins. He is 5-6 with a 4.22 ERA.

Corbin is 3-5 with a 5.05 ERA in nine starts at home this year. He has a 2-2 record and 4.91 ERA in five starts during the daylight.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Marlins Batters Batting Average vs Patrick Corbin
Miguel Rojas .406
Jon Berti .400
Avisail Garcia .375
Bryan De La Cruz .333
Brian Anderson .286
Jesus Aguilar .227
Garrett Cooper .217
Billy Hamilton .214
Jesus Sanchez .167
Jacob Stallings .077
Luke Williams .000
Nationals Batters Batting Average vs Braxton Garrett
Juan Soto 1.000
Victor Robles .000

The Marlins’ Luis Rojas has a .406 career batting average (13 of 32) against Corbin, but Jacob Stallings is 1 for 13 (.077). Nationals hitters have a total of just two at-bats versus Garrett.

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Marlins vs Nationals Betting Outlook

Brian Anderson’s infield single broke a 4-4 tie in the 10th inning and sparked the Marlins’ winning three-run rally.

With the Marlins down to their last strike in the top of the ninth inning, Jesus Sanchez hit a two-run home run to put them ahead 4-3. The Nationals tied in the bottom half of Victor Robles’ RBI single with two outs.

Jon Berti and Sanchez each drove in two runs for the Marlins. Luke Williams added a homer.

Josh Bell went deep for the Nationals and finished with two hits.

Nationals star right fielder Juan Soto is questionable for Monday after leaving the game with right calf tightness. Soto, whose eight-game hitting streak ended, was set to undergo an MRI on Sunday night. He has +8000 National League MVP odds.

The Marlins have won 10 of 11 games from the Nationals this season, including all six at Nationals Park. That comes after Washington went 103-59 against Miami in a nine-year span from 2013-21.

MIA vs WAS Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
7/3/22 Nationals Marlins MIA, 7-3
7/2/22 Nationals Marlins MIA, 5-3
7/1/22 Nationals Marlins MIA, 6-3
6/9/22 Marlins Nationals MIA, 7-4
6/8/22 Marlins Nationals MIA, 2-1
6/7/22 Marlins Nationals MIA, 12-2
5/18/22 Marlins Nationals WAS, 5-4
5/17/22 Marlins Nationals MIA, 5-1
5/16/22 Marlins Nationals MIA, 8-2
4/28/22 Nationals Marlins MIA, 3-2

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction

It is tough to sweep a four-game series even when one team is dominating the other team in a particular season such as the Marlins are to the Nationals. Corbin is slowly turning his season around and is worth backing in this game.

Pick: Nationals ML (-105)

 

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