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Marlins vs Phillies Picks and Odds (June 13)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 12, 2022 · 10:06 PM PDT

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola delivering a pitch
Jun 8, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch in the first inning during game against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Phillies are -155 home favorites over the Marlins on Monday night
  • Sandy Alcantara (6-2, 1.61) will start for Miami against Aaron Nola (4-4, 3.50)
  • A look at the Marlins vs Phillies odds and matchup can be found below with a pick

The Miami Marlins and host Philadelphia Phillies will both try to start new winning streaks when they meet at 7:05 p.m. ET Monday in the opener of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.

The Marlins (27-31, 12-17 road) lost to the Astros 9-4 on Sunday in Houston, snapping their five-game winning streak. The Phillies (30-30, 17-16 home) had their string of nine straight wins end as they were hammered 13-1 by the Arizona Diamondbacks at home.

Marlins vs Phillies Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Miami Marlins +125 +1.5 (-160) Over 7.5 (-115)
Philadelphia Phillies -155 -1.5 (+135) Under 7.5 (-105)

Odds as of June 12th at BetMGM.

 

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The Phillies are -155 favorites, giving them a 60.78% implied win probability. The Phillies have +3000 World Series odds and the Marlins are at +19000.

The weather forecast expects a gametime temperature of 84 degrees and a low of 67 with partly cloudy skies and west wind at 5 mph. There is a 20% chance of rain but not until 11 p.m., so the game should not be affected.

Miami vs Philadelphia Probable Pitchers

Sandy Alcantara (6-2, 1.61) is scheduled to pitch for the Marlins against Aaron Nola (4-4, 3.50). Both will be working on five days of rest. Alcantara’s National League Cy Young odds are +650 and Nola is listed at +3500.

Alcantara vs Nola

Sandy Alcantara
VS
Aaron Nola
6-2 Record 4-4
1.61 ERA 3.50
2.53 xERA 2.67
0.94 WHIP 0.88
3.21 SO/W 8.50

Alcantara has been outstanding over his last six starts, compiling a 4-0 record with a microscopic 0.56 ERA.

Last Tuesday, Alcantara pitched nine scoreless innings against the Washington Nationals at home but wound up with a no-decision. He allowed six hits, did not walk a better and struck out six.

Alcantara has a 6-4 lifetime record against the Phillies and a 3.11 ERA in 11 starts. He is 4-1 with a 1.84 ERA in five starts at Citizens Bank Park.

On the road this season, Alcantara is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA in five starts. He has been outstanding in seven outings at night with a 4-1 record and 1.10 ERA.

The Phillies’ Bryce Harper is hitting .360 (9 of 25) off Alcantara in his career with three doubles and one home run and has +1100 National League MVP odds. J.T. Realmuto is 6 for 16 (.375) with one homer but Odubel Herrera is just 2 for 12 (.167) with one double.

Nola has won each of his last three starts with a 2.42 ERA during that span. He pitched eight shutout innings last Tuesday to beat the Brewers in Milwaukee, giving up four hits while striking out six and walking none.

In 17 career starts against the Marlins, Nola is 4-8 with a 3.59 ERA

Nola can be dominant, though.

Nola is 2-1 with a 4.41 ERA in six starts at home this year. He is 3-3 in nine starts at night with a 3.09 ERA.

The Marlins’ Jesus Aguilar is 4 for 12 (.333) with a homer off Nola.

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Marlins vs Phillies Betting Outlook

Bryan De La Cruz provided one of the few highlights for the Marlins on Sunday in their loss to the Astros when he hit a three-run home off Justin Verlander in the seventh inning. That drew Miami within 5-4 but it got no closer.

Right fielder Avisail Garcia was a late scratch because of left hand inflammation. He is questionable for Monday and scheduled for an MRI.

Phillies pitchers walked 11 on Sunday in the drubbing by the Diamondbacks and their hitters struck out 13 times. Realmuto went 3 for 4 with a double in a losing effort.

Closer Corey Knebel should be available Monday after playing catch Sunday with incident. Knebel felt shoulder tightness while warming up to pitch the ninth inning in Saturday’s win over the Diamondbacks and did not enter the game.

Knebel couldn’t close out this bid – but it was for a good cause.

The Marlins took three of four from the Phillies at home in April in the teams’ only series so far this season. Garrett Cooper went 3 for 8 for the Marlins with one double and a home run and Jazz Chisholm Jr. was 3 for 9 with a double and two triples.

Miami is 30-22 against Philadelphia since the start of the 2019 season.

MIA vs PHI Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
4/17/22 Marlins Phillies MIA, 11-3
4/16/22 Marlins Phillies PHI, 10-3
4/15/22 Marlins Phillies MIA, 7-1
4/14/22 Marlins Phillies MIA, 4-3
10/3/21 Marlins Phillies MIA, 5-4
10/2/21 Marlins Phillies MIA, 3-1
10/1/21 Marlins Phillies PHI, 5-0
9/5/21 Marlins Phillies PHI, 4-3
9/4/21 Marlins Phillies MIA, 3-2
9/3/21 Marlins Phillies MIA, 10-3

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction

This is an intriguing matchup between two of the hottest pitchers in the NL. Alcantara has been just a smidge better lately, so we’ll ride with him as an underdog.

Pick: Marlins ML (+125)

 

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