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Rays vs Reds Odds and Picks (July 8)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Jul 7, 2022 · 8:41 PM PDT

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan flipping a rosin bag
Jun 15, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan (18) flips a rosin bag during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Rays are -152 road favorites over the Reds on Friday night
  • Lefty Shane McClanahan (9-3, 1.78) will pitch for the Rays against Luis Castillo (3-4, 3.09)
  • A look at the Rays vs Reds odds and matchup can be found below with a prediction

The Tampa Bay Rays and host Cincinnati Reds begin a three-game series at 6:40 p.m. ET Friday at Great American Ball Park.

The Rays (45-37, 20-20 road) are coming off winning two of three games from the Red Sox in Boston, including 7-1 on Wednesday. Tampa Bay, which was off Thursday, has won five its last six games overall.

The Reds (29-54, 15-28 home) split a doubleheader with the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday and have lost 7 of their last 10 games.

Rays vs Reds Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Tampa Bay Rays -152 -1.5 (+112) Over 7.5 (-117)
Cincinnati Reds +132 +1.5 (-139) Under 7.5 (-103)

Odds as of July 7th at Barstool Sportsbook.

 

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The Rays are -152 favorites, giving them an expected win probability of 60.32%. Tampa Bay’s World Series odds are +3000 while the Reds are listed at +10000.

If the weather forecast is correct, a strong chance of a delay or postponement exists as there is an 80% possibility of showers and thunderstorms. The gametime temperature is expected to be 79 degrees with wind from the northeast at 5 mph.

Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati Probable Pitchers

Shane McClanahan (9-3, 1.78) is scheduled to start for the Rays against Luis Castillo (3-4, 3.09). McClanahan will be pitching on five days of rest and Castillo on four.

At +290, McClanahan is the co-favorite in the American League Cy Young Award odds with the Houston Astros’ Justin Verlander.

McClanahan vs Castillo

Shane McClanahan
VS
Luis Castillo
9-3 Record 3-4
1.74 ERA 3.09
2.21 xERA 3.51
0.81 WHIP 1.14
7.82 SO/W 3.00

McClanahan is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts, including beating the Blue Jays last Saturday in Toronto in the opener of a doubleheader. He struck out 10 in seven innings while yielding one run, three hits and one walk.

This will be McClanahan’s first career appearance against the Reds.

McClanahan is 2-1 with a 1.44 ERA in five starts on the road this season. At night, he has a 4-2 record and 2.11 ERA in eight starts.

In his last four starts, Castillo is 1-0 with 2.88 ERA as trade rumors continue to swirl around him in advance of the Aug. 2 deadline.

Castillo pitched well Sunday in a no-decision against the visiting Atlanta Braves. He went seven innings and gave up only one run on six hits while striking out six and walking one.

Castillo has never faced the Rays.

He is 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA in five home starts in 2022 and 3-3 with a 3.09 ERA in eight starts in night games.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Rays Batters Batting Average vs Luis Castillo
Francisco Mejia .500
Harold Ramirez .000

Rays hitters have a combined 10 at-bats against Castillo and Francisco Mejia is 3 for 6 with two home runs. No one on the Reds’ active roster has batted against McClanahan.

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Rays vs Reds Betting Outlook

The Reds lost 4-2 in the first game of Thursday’s doubleheader then won the nightcap 5-1.

Tyler Naquin had a home run among his two hits to spark the Reds in the second game. Brandon Drury’s two-run triple highlighted a four-run seventh inning in which Cincinnati broke a 1-1 tie. Jonathan India also had two hits after leaving Wednesday’s game when hit on the left ankle by a pitch.

Donovan Solano had three hits, including a solo homer, in the first game. India and Tommy Pham added two hits each in a losing effort.

First baseman Joey Votto is questionable for Friday after sitting out the last four games with lower back stiffness.

Rookie reliever Alexis Diaz is expected to return Friday after being on the 15-day injured list since June 16 with right biceps tendinitis. Following the first game of the doubleheader, the Reds placed catcher Aramis Garcia on the 10-day IL with back and finger injuries and reliever Luis Cessa on the 15-day IL because of a left side injury.

On Wednesday, Randy Arozarena hit a solo home run and two-run double to lead the Rays over the Red Sox.

Josh Lowe hit two doubles for the Rays. Yandy Diaz also had two of Tampa Bay’s 11 hits.

The Rays plan to activate infielder Yu Chang, who was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates, on Friday. Infielder Vidal Brujan was optioned to Triple-A Durham after Wednesday’s game to open a roster spot.

The teams last met in 2017 when the Rays took two games in a three-game series.

TB vs CIN Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
6/21/17 Rays Reds TB, 8-3
6/20/17 Rays Reds TB, 6-5
6/19/21 Rays Reds CIN, 7-3
4/13/14 Reds Rays CIN, 12-4
4/12/14 Reds Rays TB, 1-0
4/11/14 Reds Rays TB, 2-1
6/29/11 Rays Reds CIN, 4-3
6/28/11 Rays Reds TB, 4-3
6/27/11 Rays Reds CIN, 5-0
6/9/05 Reds Rays CIN, 14-5

Rays vs Reds Prediction

Castillo has looked sharp lately, but a case can be made – and is by the oddsmakers — that McClanahan is the best pitcher in baseball. We’ve got to keep riding the talented lefty in a matchup against on one of the major leagues’ worst team.

Pick: Rays ML (-152)

 

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