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Twins vs Guardians Odds, Lines & Spread (Sep. 19)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 18, 2022 · 7:32 PM PDT

Guardians game winning celebration
Sep 17, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians shortstop Amed Rosario, middle, celebrates with teammates after hitting an RBI single to win the game during the fifteenth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Twins vs Guardians odds are a pick’em for Monday’s series finale at 1:10 pm ET
  • Minnesota will give the ball to Sonny Gray (8-4, 2.83 ERA), while Cleveland will counter with Cal Quantrill (12-5, 3.51 ERA)
  • Read below for the Twins vs Guardians odds and betting prediction

Cleveland started the weekend with a four-game lead over Minnesota atop the AL Central. Four games between the division foes later, and the Guardians are now six games in front.

With just 16 contests remaining, the Guardians can essentially end the Twins’ playoff hopes with another defeat on Monday, in the fifth and deciding game of this five-game set.

Twins vs Guardians Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Minnesota Twins -110 -1.5 (+160) Ov 7.5 (+100)
Cleveland Guardians -110 +1.5 (-190) Un 7.5 (-120)

Odds as of September 18 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code.

Oddsmakers are projecting this contest to be incredibly close, as they couldn’t bring themselves to establish a favorite. As a result, the game is currently listed as a pick’em, while Guardians vs Twins features a total of 7.5.

 

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First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio, with a risk of thunderstorms and 74 degree temperatures in the forecast.

Minnesota vs Cleveland Probable Pitchers

The main reason for such tight odds is the pitching matchup. Both teams are trotting out strong starters in Monday’s MLB lineups, with Cleveland giving the ball to Cal Quantrill. The 27-year-old has pitched extremely well over the second half of the season, yielding three or fewer runs in seven of eight outings.

Three of those performances have been shutouts, while he was excellent 10 days ago when he last faced Minnesota. Quantrill surrendered just one run over 5 innings, and struck out seven. He’s 1-0 against the Twins this season in two starts, with a 2.77 ERA. Given the state of the Twins lineup, something we’ll hit on later, he’s primed for another strong outing on Monday.

Quantrill is 12-0 in 41 games at Progressive Field since arriving in Cleveland back in 2020, and has gone 33 straight home starts without a loss.

Gray vs Quantrill Stats

Sonny Gray
VS
Cal Quantrill
8-4 Record 12-5
2.83 ERA 3.51
1.10 WHIP 1.22
.218 OBA .255
3.3 SO/W Ratio 2.7

Not to be outdone, Minnesota will counter with Sonny Gray, who’s been even more impressive recently. Gray has yielded two runs or fewer in nine of his past 10 starts. Last time out, he blanked KC over 7 innings, allowing just three hits.

The start before he held the mighty Yankees to only two runs over 6 innings, while in the past 30 days he owns a 1.93 ERA and .202 opponent batting average. Like Quantrill, he’s also 1-0 versus Monday’s opponent, with a 2.93 ERA in three starts.

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Twins vs Guardians Betting Trends

This series has been controlled by Cleveland so far, with the Guardians taking three of the first four games. Cleveland’s won 11 of their last 14 overall, and the surge has shortened their World Series odds to +3500.

The Guardians have outscored the Twins 16-13 this weekend, but were shut out on Sunday by Joe Ryan and Co. after managing only three hits. Cleveland is far from an explosive lineup, and typically relies on strong pitching and defense to win ball games. The Guardians are a below league average scoring team, and rank bottom-10 in slugging and OPS.

Conversely, their 3.57 team ERA is the fifth lowest in the American League, and only four teams in MLB have a better defensive runs saved metric per FanGraphs.

Minnesota on the other hand, is struggling to win games due to injuries and an underperforming lineup. The Twins are slashing .214/.272/.353 over the past week, numbers that pale in comparison to their season long marks. Three everyday regulars are on the IL, including Byron Buxton who leads the team in home runs.

Not surprisingly, they’re averaging just 3.4 runs over their past eight games, and have dropped 12 of their past 18 outings overall.

MIN vs CLE Last 10 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Score
9/18/22 Twins Guardians MIN, 3-0
9/17/22 Twins Guardians  CLE, 7-6
9/17/22 Twins Guardians  CLE, 5-1
9/16/22 Twins Guardians  CLE, 4-3
9/11/22 Guardians Twins CLE, 4-1
9/10/22 Guardians Twins CLE, 6-4
9/9/22 Guardians Twins CLE, 7-6
6/30/22 Twins Guardians CLE, 5-3
6/29/22 Twins Guardians CLE, 7-6
6/28/22 Twins Guardians MIN, 6-0

Twins vs Guardians Pick

We were on the under in the first game of Saturday’s double-header between these two clubs, and we’re going right back to the well on Monday.

Both starting pitchers are in some of their best form of the season, while neither offense is one to fear. Unders have been prevalent in this series lately, with four of the past five meetings reaching seven runs or less.

Each of Gray’s last five starts have produced a total below eight, and the betting market expects this matchup to fall shy of that number as well. As of Sunday night, 76% of the money bet on the total is backing the under.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)

 

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