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Twins vs Guardians Odds & Picks (Sep. 17)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 17, 2022 · 6:07 AM PDT

Shane Bieber delivers a pitch
Sep 6, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (57) warms up during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Twins vs Guardians odds favor Cleveland as -180 moneyline favorites in Game 1 of Saturday’s doubleheader at 1:10 pm ET
  • Minnesota will give the ball to Louie Varland (0-0, 3.38 ERA), while Cleveland will counter with Shane Bieber (10-8, 2.91 ERA)
  • Read below for the Twins vs Guardians odds and betting prediction

With 20 games left in the regular season heading into this weekend, the Cleveland Guardians (76-66, 36-31 home) are sitting pretty in the AL Central. Cleveland has a three game lead on the second place White Sox, and a four game lead on third place Minnesota.

The Guardians and Twins (72-70, 29-38 away) will play a five game series between Friday to Monday, including a double-header on Saturday. Oddsmakers are making a statement in regards to Game 1 of the twin bill, by making Cleveland the heavy chalk.

Twins vs Guardians Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Minnesota Twins +155 +1.5 (-140) Ov 7.5 (-110)
Cleveland Guardians -180 -1.5 (+120) Un 7.5 (-110)

Odds as of September 16 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.

The Guardians are currently -180 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 7.5. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio, with sunshine and 80 degree temperatures in the forecast.

 

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Minnesota vs Cleveland Probable Pitchers

Cleveland, who sport +4000 World Series odds, will give the ball to ace Shane Bieber in Saturday’s MLB lineups. The 27-year-old is fresh off back-to-back outstanding performances, the most recent against this same Minnesota team.

Bieber, a longshot AL Cy Young odds contender, held the Twins to one run over 6.1 innings, while scattering five hits. He struck out seven batters along the way, giving him at least that many k’s in four straight starts. His previous outing before that was an 8 inning gem against KC, where he also held the Royals to one run.

He’s yielded two earned runs or less in nine of his past 11 starts, and has had Minnesota’s number all season. Bieber sports a 2.45 ERA against the Twins through three starts, with 19 strikeouts over 17 innings.

Varland vs Bieber Stats

Louie Varland
VS
Shane Bieber
0-0 Record 10-8
3.38 ERA 2.91
0.75 WHIP 1.06
.167 OBA .229
5.1 SO/W Ratio 5.1

Minnesota will counter with rookie Louie Varland. The 24-year-old made his MLB debut last week against the Yankees, holding the Bronx Bombers to only three hits and two runs over 5.1 innings.

Varland performed well in the minors prior to his call-up, but by no means is he an elite prospect. He was a 15th round pick back in 2019, and boasted an 8-5 record with a 3.06 ERA this year in AA and AAA ball.

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Twins vs Guardians Betting Trends

Cleveland’s lineup isn’t exactly one to fear, although they have performed much better over the past week and a half. The Guardians are 8-2 over that stretch, scoring five or more runs in half of those contests. Over the past seven days, they’re slashing .291/.353/.463, pounding nine home runs along the way.

Jose Ramirez ranks second in the AL in RBI with 111, while he and teammate Andres Gimenez both rank inside the top-18 in WAR. Despite their strong seasons however, neither has performed all that well against the Twins. Ramirez has just 4 RBI in 57 at-bats, while Gimenez is batting only .216 versus Minnesota pitching.

The Twins meanwhile, are not going down in the AL Central without a fight. They’re fresh off sweeping the Royals, holding KC to just five runs over three games.

Minnesota will need its strong pitching to continue on Saturday, given the current state of their lineup. The Twins are slashing .237/.306/.678 over the past month, numbers that are well below their season averages. If there’s a player to watch out for from Minnesota it’s Carlos Correa. The 27-year-old is hitting .415 versus Twins pitching this season, with five homers and 10 RBI.

On the injury front, Minnesota will enter play shorthanded. Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton, the team’s home run leader, are on IL, while Max Kepler is currently day-to-day.

MIN vs CLE Last 10 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Score
9/11/22 Guardians Twins CLE, 4-1
9/10/22 Guardians Twins CLE, 6-4
9/9/22 Guardians Twins CLE, 7-6
6/30/22 Twins Guardians CLE, 5-3
6/29/22 Twins Guardians CLE, 7-6
6/28/22 Twins Guardians MIN, 6-0
6/28/22 Twins Guardians CLE, 3-2
6/27/22 Twins Guardians MIN, 11-1
6/23/22 Guardians Twins MIN, 1-0
6/22/22 Guardians Twins CLE, 11-10

Twins vs Guardians Pick

Cleveland had won the five previous meetings with Minnesota entering play on Friday, two of which were started by Bieber. Both of those outings were low scoring games, which is how Game 1 of Saturday’s double-header is likely to play out as well.

Six of Bieber’s last seven starts have produced a total of seven runs or less, while only seven teams have seen more of their games go under the total than Cleveland.

In spite of their recent surge, expect a slow start offensively for the Guardians having never faced Varland before. The injuries are adding up for Minnesota meanwhile, and Bieber is not a pitcher you want to face at less than full strength.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)

 

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