2018 NBA Draft Odds: Is Grayson Allen a 1st-Rounder?
- All eyes will be on Brooklyn on June 21st as the 2018 NBA Draft returns to Barclays Center.
- Who will the Suns select with the first-overall pick?
- How many Kentucky Wildcats will hear their names announced in the first round?
The NBA has become the league that never sleeps thanks to an offseason that’s arguably more entertaining than the predictable on-court product. Before LeBron James, Paul George, and Chris Paul hit free agency, before the Kawhi Leonard saga resolves itself in San Antonio, every team in the league will have a chance to bolster its roster at the 2018 NBA Draft.
Trades, rumors, and Twitter bombs are an inevitable part of draft day and will turn the current outlook on its head. But we still have a good idea on how the biggest storylines associated with the draft are going to play out, and we have crafted a wide variety of odds and over/unders to prove it, covering everything from the first-overall pick to teams that will trade up to Grayson Allen’s draft position to shoe deals to lazy player comparisons. We even touch on the 2019 NBA Draft at the tail end.
First-Round Props
Odds to be the #1 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft
| Player (School) | Odds |
|---|---|
| DeAndre Ayton (Arizona) | 3/7 |
| Luka Doncic (Slovenia) | 4/1 |
| Marvin Bagley (Duke) | 20/1 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. (MSU) | 50/1 |
| FIELD | 25/1 |
Forget everything you’ve heard about the longstanding relationship between Suns head coach Igor Kokoškov and Slovenian prospect Luka Doncic. Phoenix badly needs a center to pair with Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton is, without question, the best big man available. The 7’1″ All-American averaged 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks during his lone season at Arizona, and has the size, skill, and drive to excel at the next level.
Ayton’s average draft ranking hasn’t budged since March, and there’s no reason to believe it will fall in the coming days.
Odds the top-five teams trade their first pick during the draft
| Team (Pick #) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns (1) | 100/1 |
| Sacramento Kings (2) | 50/1 |
| Atlanta Hawks (3) | 50/1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies (4) | 15/1 |
| Dallas Mavericks (5) | 11/1 |
| None of the Top-5 | 1/5 |
If any team trades their top-five pick it’s most likely to be the Mavericks, who have been driven by a win-now mentality since Mark Cuban purchased the club in 2000. Dallas’ recent draft record has been spotty at best, and the team would be better served by adding an established veteran rather than taking a flyer on an 18-year-old brimming with upside.
Odds the following teams trade up in the first round
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 2/1 |
| Boston Celtics | 1/1 |
| Lose Angeles Clippers | 7/1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 25/1 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 20/1 |
Never underestimate Trader Danny and his ability to fleece a team. Ainge will likely be one of the busiest GMs in the league once the 2018 NBA Draft officially begins.
Odds teams without a first-round pick acquire one
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 5/2 |
| Miami Heat | 3/1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 8/1 |
| Detroit Pistons | 9/1 |
| Houston Rockets | 25/1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 25/1 |
Keep an eye on Pat Riley and the Heat. Miami doesn’t have any picks in the upcoming NBA Draft, and may consider dangling disgruntled center Hassan Whiteside in exchange for a top ten selection. The 29-year-old is still among the game’s best rim protectors and would benefit greatly from a change in scenery.
Odds to have most first-round picks (conference)
| NCAA Conference | Odds |
|---|---|
| SEC | 2/1 |
| ACC | 5/2 |
| Pac 12 | 5/1 |
| Big 12 | 11/1 |
| Big 10 | 20/1 |
| FIELD | 10/1 |
The SEC didn’t produce a national champion in 2018, but it is likely to produce many of the best players in the first round of the 2018 NBA Draft. Hold onto your (draft) hats as Michael Porter, Kevin Knox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Collin Sexton, and Robert Williams (arguably the most thunderous dunker available) lead a steady procession of SEC alumni on June 21st.
Over/under first-round picks by school
| School (Potential first-round picks) | Over/Under |
|---|---|
| Villanova (Mik. Bridges, J. Brunson, D. Divincenzo, O. Spellman) | 3.0 |
| Duke (M. Bagley, W. Carter, G. Allen, G. Trent, T. Duval) | 2.5 |
Over/under international players drafted in the first round: 2.5
Slovenian shooting guard Luka Doncic and French point guard Elie Okobo are the only two non-U.S. players who can consistently be found in the first round of NBA draft boards. One player who could crash the party, however, is Dzanan Musa, a 6’9” small forward from Bosnia who’s earned comparisons to Bojan Bogdanovic. The 19-year-old Musa is a lights-out shooter who could appeal to teams in need of more court spacing.
Odds no college seniors are selected in the first round: 3/1
You won’t find a more taboo word at the NBA Draft than “senior.” The very mention of it makes GMs recoil and cross themselves for protection. But we should see at least one in the first round; Chandler Hutchinson from Boise State is rumored to have a promise in the early 20s, potentially from Indiana.
Odds the 76ers do not trade any of their six draft picks during the draft: 50/1
No team needs six draft picks, especially a team like Philadelphia, which already has one of the youngest rosters in the league. Expect the Sixers to package two or more of the picks in an attempt to move up in the draft or add an experienced veteran to replace free-agent forward Amir Johnson.
Odds a first-round pick does not put on his team’s hat: 75/1
There are two traditions you can count on during every NBA Draft: The Sacramento Kings will make a horrible, head-scratching pick, and every player taken in the first round will don the hat of the team that selected them. Don’t count on either of those changing.
PLAYER PROPS
Grayson Allen props
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Odds Grayson Allen is not selected in the first round | 1/3 |
| Over/Under Grayson Allen draft position | 37.5 |
| Odds the majority of fans at Barclays Center boo Grayson Allen when selected | 1/4 |
You have to look long and hard to find a reputable draft board that still has Grayson Allen listed in its first round. The 22-year-old guard has seen his stock plummet precariously since his freshman season as he’s failed to demonstrate the maturity and consistent stroke needed to succeed at the next level.
Allen was especially underwhelming in Duke’s Midwest Regional Final loss to Kansas, shooting just 3-13 from the field and 2-9 from beyond the arc. That poor performance is still fresh in the minds of talent evaluators and will cause him to drop like a stone into the second round. Ain’t that a kick in the pants?
The “booing” prop is is as close to a sure thing as you’ll find in the 2018 NBA Draft. The only real question is whether the boos will be accompanied by lusty chants and mean-spirited laughter. Allen will soon discover that karma can be a real bitch.
Mikal & Miles Bridges props
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Odds Mikal Bridges (Villanova) is drafted before Miles Bridges (MSU) | 1/8 |
| Odds Mikal and Miles Bridges are drafted with consecutive picks | 7/2 |
| Over/Under combined draft position of Mikal & Miles Bridges | 19.5 |
| Odds the Knicks draft Mikal or Miles Bridges | 7/3 |
Odds LiAngelo Ball is drafted in the 2018 NBA Draft: 10,000/1
LiAngelo Ball is more likely to get retroactively drafted into the Vietnam War than drafted into the NBA. Go ahead, you can tell his dad we said that.
BROADCAST & SIDE-SHOW PROPS
Odds the following player comparisons are made by an ESPN analyst during the NBA Draft broadcast
| College Player (Team) | NBA Comparison | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Trae Young (Oklahoma) | Steph Curry | 1/4 |
| Deandre Ayton (Arizona) | David Robinson, Patrick Ewing or Hakeem Olajuwon | 1/3 |
| Grayson Allen (Duke) | Danny Ainge or JJ Redick | 2/3 |
| Marvin Bagley (Duke) | Jahlil Okafor | 1/1 |
| Mo Bamba (Texas) | Rudy Gobert | 3/2 |
| Jalen Brunson (Villanova) | Mark Jackson | 6/1 |
| Luka Doncic (Serbia) | Larry Bird | 25/1 |
Marvin Bagley should consider it a compliment if broadcasters compare him to Jahlil Okafor at the draft, and an outright insult if they’re comparing him to Okafor in another three years. The third-overall pick has become the poster child for wasted opportunities and is just a few more DNP-CD’s away from patrolling the paint from an unpronounceable team in Europe.
The Trae Young/Steph Curry comparisons are outlandish, but they’ve been made before and they’ll be made again. It’s TV’s version of click-bait.
Over/under first-round picks signed by the following shoe companies by Opening Day 2018
| Shoe Company | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nike | 15.5 |
| Puma | 4.5 |
| Adidas | 3.5 |
| Under Armour | 2.5 |
| Jordan | 1.5 |
| Big Baller | 0.5 |
| FIELD | 0.5 |
Watch your back, Nike, there’s a big cat on the prowl! Puma’s basketball division is back in a huge way, already signing DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, and Zhaire Smith to lucrative shoe deals.
Nike is still the top predator when it comes to sheer quantity, but Puma is making a play to be the alpha male, and it’s started with some choice cuts of meat.
Color of Adam Silver’s tie on draft day
| Tie Color | Odds |
|---|---|
| Striped | 3/2 |
| Red | 3/1 |
| Blue | 5/1 |
| Purple | 9/1 |
| Polka Dots | 20/1 |
| FIELD | 25/1 |
Adam Silver has been an agent of change as Commissioner of the NBA, but he’s a creature of habit when it comes to fashion. He wore stripes to the NBA Draft in 2016 and 2017 and will likely complete the trifecta in 2018.
Odds the majority of fans at Barclays Center boo the Knicks’ pick: 3/2
Nets fans may not hate the Knicks quite as much as the rest of America hates Grayson Allen, but it’s close. Expect plenty of bellowing boos when Adam Silver announces New York’s first round pick.
Odds a “Woj Bomb” announces the trade of a lottery pick: 1/7
What’s a “Woj Bomb?” You must be new here. Adrian Wojnarowski breaks about 90% of the biggest NBA news on Twitter. He used to scoop ESPN on every draft pick before ESPN decided “if you can’t beat’em, hire’em.” He’s so prodigious that he has his own hashtag and apparel:
It’s officially #WojBomb SZN!! Hope y’all are ready for some madness! #NBA #NBAdraft #NBAfreeagency
Get Yours ➡️ https://t.co/iPvXH4Caf4 pic.twitter.com/onvOlp6ETe
— Kings Of The Court (@KingsOTCourt) June 18, 2018
2019 NBA DRAFT ODDS
Odds to be the #1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| RJ Barrett (Duke) | 5/4 |
| Cam Reddish (Duke) | 5/1 |
| Nassir Little (UNC) | 9/1 |
| Bol Bol (Oregon) | 12/1 |
| Zion Williamson (Duke) | 15/1 |
| FIELD | 11/2 |
Here are two undisputed facts: (1) Blake Griffin in 2009 was the last sophomore (or older) player drafted first overall; (2) RJ Barrett has been at the top of the 2019 class for years. While Duke has only produced one first-overall pick this millennium (Kyrie Irving, 2011) it’s not like playing under Coach K is a negative for a player’s draft stock.
Odds RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Zion Williamson of Duke are the top-three picks (any order): 45/1
It would be completely unprecedented for the top-three picks to all come from the same school, but there is a non-zero chance of that happening. After all, the top three picks are going to be one-and-done players, and Barrett, Reddish, and Williamson were the top-three 2018 prospects on some recruiting rankings, such as ESPN.
Last year, the top-four on ESPN’s big board were Bagley, Porter, and Ayton, who could feasibly go 1-2-3 this year, and almost certainly would have if (a) Porter didn’t get injured and (b) Luka Doncic didn’t exist.
Odds players who “tested the waters” in 2018 are lottery picks in 2019
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jontay Porter (Missouri) | 5/4 |
| Bruno Fernando (Maryland) | 4/1 |
| Kris Wilkes (UCLA) | 9/1 |
| Tyus Battle (Syracuse) | 12/1 |
| Shamorie Ponds (St. John’s) | 15/1 |
| Caleb Martin (Nevada) | 90/1 |
| Cody Martin (Nevada) | 149/1 |
It’s debatable whether Miles Bridges, who was a projected lottery pick in 2017, hurt or helped his stock by staying in school an extra year. Jontay Porter will be in a similar situation heading into next season. He wasn’t as highly ranked as Bridges after his freshman season, but he was a sure-fire first-rounder. Unless he shows more explosiveness and convinces NBA teams that the has the athleticism to be worthy of a lottery pick, he’s more likely to go later than #14 than earlier, even in next year’s weaker draft class.
Ryan worked as an Editor and resident Lead NBA and MLB Writer for SB from 2017-19. He has authored his own weekly columns for Fox Sports and AskMen, and has created successful campaigns for the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL. Ryan's critically acclaimed stories have been published in 20 books.
