Warriors vs Mavericks Odds, Spread and Picks

• Mavericks host Warriors for the second matchup between the two teams in five days
• Dallas rallied from a 20+ point deficit to beat Golden State last head-to-head
• Find the odds, betting analysis, and prediction below

After a successful road trip, the Dallas Mavericks return home to open a 4-game set.

Their opponent Thursday night, the Golden State Warriors, were one of the home foes Dallas dispatched on their trip, in one of the wildest games in the NBA this season.

The two teams collide for the second time in five days, and they’re heading in opposite directions. The Mavericks are looking for their ninth win in 11 games. GState, meanwhile, currently suffering a rash of injuries, have dropped six of their last eight.

It all gets underway at 8:30pm ET at American Airlines Arena and can be seen live on NBA League Pass.

Warriors vs Mavericks Odds

Odds as of March 2 at DraftKings

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Despite their struggles, the Warriors are a 2.5-point road favorite.

Warriors Betting Outlook

Golden State came out of the All-Star break strong, blowing out the Portland Trail Blazers, but it’s been ugly since.

It started with a 107-101 loss to the Mavericks, blowing a 21-point lead in the third quarter. Dallas finished off the Dubs with a punishing 33-8 run in the final 10 minutes of the fourth quarter.

Luka Doncic drops 3⃣4⃣ and leads Dallas Mavericks to a comeback win over Golden State Warriors 👇 pic.twitter.com/JMlawZrobV

— Sky Sports NBA (@SkySportsNBA) February 28, 2022

Last time out, they were blasted by the Minnesota Timberwolves 129-114, the highest point total they have surrendered this season.

Although the Warriors boast the fourth-best scoring defense in the NBA at 104.0 per game, during this eight-game stretch, they’ve surrendered 113.6.

Dallas came back from a 21-point deficit tonight, marking their largest comeback win of the season (prev. 20 points vs. SAS, 10/28/21).

The Mavericks also broke Golden State’s streak of 62 consecutive wins when the Warriors led by 20+ points. https://t.co/CQpud7svOj

— Mavs PR (@MavsPR) February 28, 2022

Steph Curry, once a favorite in the 2022 NBA MVP odds, led the Dubs in scoring with 34 points, but his shooting has tailed off since the break. He hasn’t shot better than 31.3% from three-point range in any of his last three games.

Golden State is still missing do-everything forward Draymond Green (back). A back ailment will also sideline veteran Andre Iguodala,  while Damion Lee (quadriceps), Moses Moody (eye) and Klay Thompson (illness) will all be game-time decisions.

Mavericks Betting Outlook

Dallas is being powered by Luka Doncic, plain and simple.

Since the Mavericks dealt forward Kristaps Porzingis to the Wizards, he has averaged 32 points, 10.7 rebounds and 6.6 assists in seven games. That includes a 51-point explosion against the Clippers, and two other 40+ point performances.

Don't make @luka7doncic angry…… pic.twitter.com/QVICKt8oXT

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) March 2, 2022

Last time out, the Mavericks built a 21-point lead over the Lakers, only to see themselves trailing 100-94 with seven minutes to play. An 11-0 run helped finally put LA away, giving the Mavericks a strong 4-1 finish to their road trip.

One of the key returns in the Porzingis deal is guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who has started to find his way in his new digs.

Coming off the bench, he potted 14 points and added nine assists in 24 minutes of work. His breakout came a game earlier against Warriors, when he went for 24 points and five dimes.

SPENCER. DINWIDDIE. pic.twitter.com/a1AM4KZKeS

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) March 2, 2022

Still, the Mavericks only average 106.7 points per game, which ranks 25th in the NBA. However, they balance that out with the NBA’s second best scoring defense, holding teams to 103.4 points per game.

The Mavs are in a three-way tie for the fourth-best odds to win the NBA Western Conference.

Warriors vs Mavericks Prediction

This will be the fourth and final meeting between these teams, with the Mavericks trying to close it out with three straight wins.

Golden State is 13-14-1 against the spread as a road team this season, though they do sport a 17-12 SU mark on the season, which is tied for the 4th-most road wins in the conference.

Dallas is 16-14-1 ATS at home, while holding a 20-11 SU record. They’re one of five teams in the West with 20+ home wins.

Mavericks absolutely SHUT DOWN the Warriors in the 4th quarter 👀 pic.twitter.com/dMbeYhoZex

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) February 28, 2022

Golden State’s slide has allowed the upstart Memphis Grizzlies to close to within a half-game of them for the second seed. The Mavs have clawed their way into fifth in the west, just a half-game ahead of the Denver Nuggets.

There’s a distinct possibility these two could collide in the playoffs — and perhaps by then, the Dubs will be at some form of better health.

Until then, however, Doncic is carrying the offensive load, while Dallas’ defense holds down the opposition.

Expect much of the same Thursday.

The pick: Mavericks +2.5 (-110)