Odds Heavily Favor 2020-21 NBA Season Beginning in December

• The NBA season is set to start in December 2020 or January 2021
• Major losses could force the league to start next season as early as the week of Christmas
• Negotiations are ongoing between the NBPA and NBA

The 2019-20 NBA season has just been completed, but the 2020-21 campaign is almost upon us. Whether a December 22nd or January 18th start date, the NBA is coming back, and it’s coming back much sooner than some players and fans might have expected.

The team atop the 2021 NBA Championship odds, the Los Angeles Lakers, only claimed their NBA title a few weeks ago. The latest odds on the start date of the next NBA season leans heavily towards a December start, which would mean training camps opening up on the 1st of the month.

Here are the latest NBA season start date odds.

When Will The Next NBA Season Start?

Odds taken Nov. 5

Christmas Likelihood

There will be an NBA Board of Governors meeting on Thursday to vote on a December 22nd start date, as reported by Adrian Wojnarowski. The deadline for this decision is Friday, and Marc Stein tweeted on Wednesday that the Players’ Association is moving towards accepting the December 22nd option.

Players, particularly who went deep into the playoffs, have been reluctant to get underway so quickly but, it appears there has been a shift. While the Lakers, Heat, Nuggets, and Celtics might not feel they have sufficient time off, several other teams have had a long rest. Eight franchises haven’t played competitive basketball since March. The teams that went to the bubble but did not make the playoffs haven’t played since August. Moreover, all of the teams that fell in the first round were knocked out before September.

NBA Voting Update: All the momentum on the player side today indicates that the union, through a vote of team player representatives, is poised to ratify the NBA's plan to open training camps Dec. 1 and start the 2020-21 season Dec. 22 by week's end

— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) November 4, 2020

The league and owners were keen to start before or on Christmas Day. The five consecutive games on Christmas is massive for the NBA. It has been reported that the league could lose as much as $1 billion if they don’t play in December – those losses would impact player salaries.

January Scenario

The alternative is a Martin Luther King Day start on January 18th. This would be a shorter regular season (50 games rather than the 72 proposed by the December 22nd start) and could have a massive financial impact on the league.

Obviously, this has the added bonus of keeping the players happy and means extra rest for some of the league’s best teams. The financial losses are tough to swallow for a league that had to complete the post-season without fans and will be playing the majority of games behind closed doors for the foreseeable future.

Ten teams haven’t played since March. Then, following a four-month hiatus, four other teams haven't played since mid-August, and eight others haven't since early September. Over two-thirds of the NBA have had at least three months off. I'd bet on the Dec. 22 start to be approved. https://t.co/7K8E3gahpC

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) November 3, 2020

January would mean a fresh start, an opportunity for players to recharge their batteries, and for teams to properly prepare for the season. It would avoid a rushed free agency.

Money Forces December

The on-court product might benefit from a January start. There’s no question the Conference Finalists would prefer it. That cannot and does not outweigh the sheer amount of money at stake. Getting back to competitive basketball, giving television companies live games to put on people’s screens, is what owners and Adam Silver want.

Here is what an 18% escrow would look like for some of the top earners:

Steph Curry ➡️$43M to $35.3M 🔽$7.4M

LeBron James ➡️$39.2M to $32.2M 🔽$7.0M

Kawhi Leonard ➡️$34.4M to $28.2M 🔽$6.2M

Total player escrow projects from $720M to $800M

— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) November 4, 2020

According to Stein, it seems enough players are willing to accept this truncated offseason. The limited rest and shortened training camps (Silver proposes three pre-season exhibition games per team) might make for an unpredictable start to the year, and some will argue it isn’t fair, but a December start looks inevitable.

Strange things happen, especially in 2020, but it would take something extraordinary to force the NBA to start any later than December. Money talks.