First Four Picks and Best Bets for 2021 March Madness

• The NCAA Tournament’s First Four games all take place on Thursday, March 18th, starting at 5:10 pm ET
• Drake’s leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill, who hasn’t played since Feb. 10, is expected to return vs Wichita State
• See below for betting analysis and picks for the First Four Games

Let the Madness begin. The NCAA Tournament’s First Four games tip-off on Thursday, starting at 5:10 pm ET, with each of the four winners earning a spot in Saturday’s First Round. We’ve already seen major line movement in two of the four contests since the odds were released, so pat yourself on the back if you got in early on Mount St. Mary’s or Drake.

First Four Odds (Thursday, March 18th)

Odds taken March 17th at FanDuel and DraftKings.

Speaking of Drake, the Bulldogs received some good news this week about leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill’s availability for Thursday, which is a major reason for the odds shift in their favor.

Pick #1: Drake Takes Down Wichita State

The Bulldogs opened up as a 2-point underdog against Wichita State, but the line has swung 3 points and they’re now favored by 1. Hemphill, who hasn’t played since Feb. 10th due to a foot injury, has been practicing this week and all signs point to him playing versus the Shockers.

Drake's ShanQuan Hemphill (foot) "is on track to play" in the First Four on Thursday versus Wichita State, per Darian DeVries. Averaged 14.1 PPG and 6.3 RPG. Led the team in scoring and rebounding.

Has not played in weeks.

Significant First Four news.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 16, 2021

That’s big news for Drake’s offense, which ranks 19th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom), and is also missing third leading scorer Roman Penn. In nine games without Hemphill, the Bulldogs averaged just 68.6 points per game which is 9 points lower than their season mark.

One bit of positive news from their recent injuries has been the emergence of Joseph Yesufu. The Senior guard has picked up the offensive slack with Hemphill and Penn out, averaging 23 points in Drake’s last six outings. Given his ascension, and the return of Hemphill, the Bulldogs offensive ceiling is back to where it was six weeks ago.

We're in and enjoying the moment.#DrakeALLIN#DSMHometownTeam

(🎥 @kstarce14)

ʙᴜʟʟᴅᴏɢ ʙᴀꜱᴋᴇᴛʙᴀʟʟ ᴘᴏꜱᴛ-ꜱᴇᴀꜱᴏɴ ᴘʀᴇꜱᴇɴᴛᴇᴅ ʙʏ @HyVee pic.twitter.com/uF861XkRT7

— Drake Basketball (@DrakeBulldogsMB) March 15, 2021

Wichita State meanwhile, relies heavily on its three-point efficiency to score which could be an issue against the Bulldogs. On average, 34.2% of the Shockers offense comes from behind the arc, while Drake limited enemy shooters to 29.4% from three this season, the 16th best mark in the country.

Pick: Drake Bulldogs -1 (-110)

Pick #2: Mount St. Mary’s Gets Past Texas Southern

The other game that has seen a significant line move is Mount St. Mary’s versus Texas Southern. The Tigers opened up as a 2-point favorite, but the game now sits at a pick’em.

Texas Southern enters play riding a nine-game winning streak, but will be hard pressed to execute its game plan against a very methodical Mountaineers program. The Tigers are used to lots of possessions and scoring inside, which is precisely the opposite of how Mount St. Mary’s is determined play.

🏆 2021 NEC CHAMPIONS 🏆#RingSZN #ClimbTHEMOUNTain pic.twitter.com/A5a5yvBkRb

— Mount Men’s Basketball (@MountHoops) March 10, 2021

The Mountaineers rank 355th in pace out of 356 programs, and average only 66 possessions per game. They crowd the interior with three forwards that stand 6’8 or taller, which could cause major headaches for Texas Southern. The Tigers get 79.6% of their offensive production from inside the three-point line, while Mount St. Mary’s limited opposing shooters to 44.2% from two-point range in league play this season.

If Texas Southern decides to ramp up its three-point attempts instead, that could also be a recipe for disaster. They shot just 27.6% from beyond the arc in 2020-21, while the Mountaineers rank 25th in the country at defending the three-point line. Not surprisingly, given the defensive prowess we just covered, Mount St. Mary’s surrendered the 17th fewest points per game nationally (62.3).

Are you ready? #MarchMadness #ClimbTHEMOUNTain pic.twitter.com/vh4ZTRgk6W

— Mount Men’s Basketball (@MountHoops) March 16, 2021

At the other end of the court, the Mountaineers are certainly no offensive juggernaut, but they did exceed offensive expectations in the final four games leading into this matchup, and can do so against the Tigers as well. Six of their top-seven players are upperclassmen, and their veteran-laden group won’t be coaxed into a fast-paced shootout with Texas Southern.

Pick: Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers moneyline (-109)