UNC Greensboro vs Florida State Odds and Picks
- 4-seed Florida State is a 10.5-point favorite over 13-seed UNC Greensboro in East Region First Round Action on Saturday (March 20th, 12:45 pm ET)
- The Seminoles have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen in back-to-back March Madness appearances
- See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction
Fresh off a disappointing loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament final, Florida State enters the NCAA Tournament with aspirations of another deep run. The Seminoles advanced all the way to the Elite Eight in 2018, and were one of the final 16 teams in 2019.
They’ll open March Madness versus UNC Greensboro in the 13-4 East Region matchup on Saturday (March 20th), with tip-off scheduled for 12:45 pm ET.
UNC Greensboro vs Florida State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Greensboro Spartans | +10.5 (-116) | +460 | Over 145.5 (-110) |
| Florida State Seminoles | -10.5 (-106) | -620 | Under 145.5 (-110) |
Odds as of March 19th at FanDuel.
Florida State is currently a 10.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 145.5. While the Seminoles have been an NCAA Tournament staple over the past few years, the Spartans are making just their second appearance since 2001.
Defensively Minded
UNC Greensboro earned its ticket to March Madness by winning the Southern Conference Tournament. They defeated Mercer 69-61 in the championship game, thanks to a fantastic effort from leading scorer Isaiah Miller. The two-time Southern Conference player of the year, poured in 25 points and grabbed 12 boards, helping the Spartans cover the 5-point spread.
https://twitter.com/UNCGBasketball/status/1369109075800260616
Miller, who’s also a two-time conference defensive player of the year, is the lone Spartan who averages in double-figures this season, which is likely going to be an issue against such a talented Florida State team. UNCG is a poor perimeter shooting team and relies heavily on Miller for offense. They shot just 42.4% from the field in 2020-21, and 30% from three, which was the 318th lowest mark in the nation.
"It doesn't matter if we're a mid-major… We don't buy into that. We feel like we can compete with any team in the nation."
Kaleb Hunter discusses @UNCGBasketball's mindset going into March Madness. pic.twitter.com/kSnDLkDYyb
— March Madness Men’s Basketball TV (@MM_MBB_TV) March 18, 2021
If the Spartans are going to keep this game close, it will be because of their defense. They press hard on D, which has led to them producing turnovers at a 21% clip. They led the Southern in points allowed, opponent field-goal percentage and steals, while ranking second versus the three-ball.
Seminoles Can Shoot the Lights Out
While UNC Greensboro struggles offensively, Florida State is an elite shooting team. They averaged 80.5 points per outing in ACC play, and shot 39% from three this season, which ranked ninth in the country. Five players average at least 9 points per game, and both leading scorer M.J. Walker and Anthony Polite shoot 44% from beyond the arc.
Anyone feel like dancing?!
WE DO #NewBlood | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/PNMvYJwZTw
— Florida State Men’s Basketball (@FSUHoops) March 14, 2021
Defensively they’re no slouch, which makes this matchup so tough for UNCG. The Seminoles held opponents to 39.8% from the field this season, the 20th best mark in nation, while forcing 7.4 steals and 5.1 blocks per outing.
The majority of the Seminoles games went over the total this season, including seven of their past nine, but keep in mind the quality of the competition. They played in a tough ACC conference versus opponents who could match them offensively, something the Spartans won’t be able to do.
Play the Under
UNC Greensboro averaged 73.6 points per game in 2020-21, but just three of their contests were against teams ranked inside the top-100. In those outings, they averaged only 60 points per game, which isn’t promising for their offensive outlook versus Florida State.
The under hit in eight of the Spartans’ last 12 contests overall, and with their offensive limitations and strong defensive prowess, betting the under in this matchup is the way to go.
MATCHUP IS SET 😈#NewBlood | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/1WbAdr6Eoq
— Florida State Men’s Basketball (@FSUHoops) March 14, 2021
Even if the Seminoles come out on fire, 145.5 points is a big total to go over. In two of Florida State’s three out of conference games this season versus teams ranked in the same ball park as UNCG, the total fell short of 145, and neither opponent was in the same defensive class as the Spartans.
Pick: Under 145.5 (-110)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
