Illinois vs Michigan State Odds and Picks (Feb. 19)

• Illinois is a one-point road favorite over Michigan State on Saturday
• Michigan State has lost three of its last four games and Illinois has dropped two of three
• A look at the matchup and odds can be found below with a pick

In a pivotal Big Ten game, #12 Illinois visits #19 Michigan State at 12 p.m. ET Saturday at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.

Illinois is 11-4 in conference play and tied for second place with Wisconsin, 0.5 games behind Purdue (12-4). Michigan State (9-5) is in sixth place but trails the Boilermakers by only one game in the loss column.

Illinois (18-7/5-4 road) has lost two of its last three games, including dropping a 70-59 decision at Rutgers on Wednesday. Michigan State (18-7/10-2 home) fell at Penn State 62-58 on Tuesday for its third loss in the last four games.

Illinois vs Michigan State Odds

Odds as of February 18th at FanDuel.

Illinois is a one-point choice in a game that will be broadcast by ESPN. The Fighting Illini have a 53.49% implied win probability as -115 moneyline favorites.

Illinois Betting Outlook

Illinois has been the losing side against the spread in its last three games and is 11-14 overall this season. The Fighting Illini are 3-6 in road games.

Junior center Kofi Cockburn was a bright spot in an otherwise dismal performance at Rutgers. He had 20 points and 10 rebounds for his 14^th double-double of the season and 42^nd of his career.

Kofi Cockburn. Amazing. pic.twitter.com/5slfDvZ3B7

— Benjamin Hochman (@hochman) December 23, 2021

Cockburn is averaging 21.4 points and 11.3 rebounds a game. He has scored at least 20 points on 11 occasions.

Nationally, Cockburn ranks among the top 10 in scoring (eighth), rebounding (sixth) and field goal percentage (64.4, ninth). He leads the Big Ten in rebounding and is second in the other two categories.

Senior guard Trent Frazier contributed 12 points, four assists and four steals. He has season averages of 12.0 points, 4.0 assists and 3.0 rebounds.

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Illinois missed its first 13 shots and fell behind 33-24 by halftime for its lowest-scoring half of the season. Rutgers also hammered the Fighting Illini on the boards with a whopping 46-28 advantage in rebounds.

Illinois shot 37.9% (22 of 58) and made just 6 of 23 (26.1%) from three-point range.

Freshman guard RJ Melendez is becoming a factor off the bench as he scored 11 points in 11 minutes. It was his second straight double-digit scoring game after not having more than six points in a game all season.

RJ Melendez in 11 minutes:
10 pts
2 Rebs
1 Blk
1 Stl pic.twitter.com/K7PN37tjH1

— Dariush Takhtehchian, M.D (@takhtehchianmd) February 17, 2022

Senior guard Alfonso Plummer is averaging 14.9 points a game but managed just four points Wednesday on 2-of-8 shooting.

Michigan State Betting Outlook

Michigan State has not been a profitable proposition lately with four ATS losses in its last five games. The Spartans are 13-12 overall, including 6-6 in East Lansing.

Despite playing a solid defensive game and getting a surprisingly good performance from junior forward Julius Marble II, Michigan State blew a 14-point lead with 13:20 remaining and wound up losing at Penn State.

Marble had 14 points and eight rebounds while making 6 of 7 shots from the floor. It was his fifth double-figure scoring game this season but first since Jan. 15.

Julius Marble II with the 🔨!@MSU_Basketball #SpartanDawgs #ChampionsClassic pic.twitter.com/KjC8doHt1c

— State Farm Champions Classic (@championclassic) December 2, 2020

Michigan State has had a different player lead them in scoring in each of the last six games.

Michigan State held Penn State to 39.3% (22 of 56) shooting, though the Nittany Lions made 40.0% (10 of 25) of their tries from deep.

The only other Michigan State player to score in double figures was freshman guard Max Christie. His 10 points were right in line with his season average of 9.8.

The Spartans’ leading scorer, senior forward Gabe Brown, managed just seven points on 2-of-8 shooting. His has a season average of 12.1.

Another look at that Gabe Brown dunk 😳

That was a nasty throwdown by the @MSU_Basketball star pic.twitter.com/62PGhbwBAH

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) January 29, 2022

Just one other Michigan State player is scoring in double figures and that is junior forward Malik Hall at 10.2 points a game.

Illinois vs Michigan State Prediction

Illinois squeaked past Michigan State 56-55 on Jan. 25 at home despite Cockburn missing the game while in concussion protocol. Frazier led the Fighting Illini with 16 points and five assists and Plummer chipped with 11.

Michigan State was led by senior forward Marcus Bingham Jr.’s 13 points. Brown finished with 10 points as the Spartans lost to Illinois for just the second time in the last six meetings.

Both teams need this game, and neither is playing well. Let’s go with Michigan State because of Illinois’ struggles on the road.

• The Pick: Michigan State +1 (-110)