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Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Odds and Picks: A-Sun Title Game

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Mar 7, 2022 · 9:11 PM PST

Tyreese Davis makes a pass
Jacksonville's Tyreese Davis (23) passes as Pittsburgh's John Hugley defends during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Tuesday, Dec. 21, 2021, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
  • The Jacksonville vs Bellarmine odds favor the Knights by 2.5-points on Tuesday (March 8) at 5pm ET
  •  Both teams knocked off a top-two seed to advance to the final of the A-Sun Tournament
  • Read below for the Jacksonville vs Bellarmine odds, analysis, and betting prediction

There’s an interesting twist to this year’s A-Sun Title Game. The winner may not be the team representing the conference at the NCAA Tournament next week. That’s because Bellarmine is still officially in its transition phase to Division 1, which means if they beat Jacksonville on Tuesday (March 8), the automatic March Madness bid will revert back to the A-Sun’s regular-season champ Jacksonville State.

Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Jacksonville Dolphins OFF +2.5  (-110) O 123 (-110)
Bellarmine Knights OFF -2.5  (-110) U 123 (-110)

Odds as of March 7th at BetMGM.

 

The Knights opened up as a 2.5-point favorite over the Dolphins in the A-Sun Championship Final, in a game that features a total of 123. Tipoff is scheduled for 5pm ET at Freedom Hall in Louisville, KY, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

Assuming the chalk holds, Jacksonville State is a #15 seed in the latest March Madness bracket projection. If Jacksonville pulls the upset on Tuesday, it’s likely they would be on the #16 line; the sit 21 spots lower than Jacksonville in the NET Rankings.

To add another layer of intrigue to this story, Jacksonville just beat Jacksonville State in the conference tourney semifinal, so seeing them granted a March Madness bid would be extra painful should Bellarmine emerge victorious on Tuesday. The Dolphins will be seeking their first March Madness trip since 1986.

Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Betting Analysis

Bellarmine is in the A-Sun Title Game in just its second season in the conference. Prior to the 2020-21 season, they were a Division 2 powerhouse winning the National Championship at that level in 2011, and making the Final Four three additional times over the past decade.

The Knights finished their conference schedule with an 11-5 record, good enough for a tie for the third best mark in the A-Sun. The Dolphins were also 11-5, and both teams knocked off a top-two seed on their opponent’s home court to reach the championship game.

Jacksonville defeated Jacksonville State as mentioned 54-51, while Bellarmine ended Liberty’s three-year run as conference champ by downing the Flames 53-50.

These two teams met once during the regular season, and it was an epic contest. The Knights prevailed 76-73 in overtime, in a game that featured nine ties and eight lead changes. Neither program led by more than 6 points all game, and both teams were more efficient on offense than usual.

Jacksonville and Bellarmine are two of the five lowest teams in the conference, with the Dolphins ranking dead last in points per game. They’re also last in three-point makes, and second last in turnovers.

The Knights on the other hand, actually shoot the ball fairly well despite their pedestrian 69.9 points per game average. They rank third in the conference in field-goal percentage, second in free-throw percentage, and are the most efficient team from 2-point range.

Defensively is where both programs shine. Jacksonville leads the A-Sun in defensive rating and scoring defense, as well as opponent field-goal percentage and defensive rebounding.

Not to be outdone, Bellarmine ranks top-four in scoring defense, defensive rebounds and steals. They’re more forgiving to enemy shooters, ranking eighth in opponent field-goal percentage, which should elevate the Dolphins’ offensive ceiling.

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Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Betting Trends

Both programs enter play red-hot against the spread. Jacksonville has covered in 13 of its last 18 outings, including its first meeting with Bellarmine, and is 8-5 ATS as an underdog this season.

The Knights meanwhile, have covered in both tournament games so far, and are 11-6-1 ATS against conference opponents this season.

Total wise, both teams lean under. Sixteen of the Dolphins’ 27 contests have fallen under the total this season, including six of their past 10. As for Bellarmine, the under is 17-11 overall in their action to date, including 11-7 in conference games.

Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Pick

The Dolphins ended the regular season by winning eight of 10, and actually grade out much higher than the Panthers per KenPom (161 vs 203) and the NCAA NET Rankings (160 vs 199). They will have extremely long Final Four odds if they pull the upset here, but their defense is suffocating and they should be able to find just enough offense versus Bellarmine’s shaky perimeter D to at least crack the NCAA Tournament field.

Their first meeting was closely contested and this one should be as well. I’ll gladly take the points and ride the Dolphins incredibly hot ATS form.

Pick: Jacksonville Dolphins (+2.5)

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