UPDATED #9 Northwestern vs #8 Florida Atlantic Predictions, Odds & Best Bets for 2024 NCAA Tournament
- The Northwestern Wildcats and FAU Owls battle in the first round of March Madness on Friday
- Florida Atlantic reached the Final Four last season
- See the Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic odds, predictions, and expert picks for March 22
Coming off a Cinderella run the Final Four last season, the #8 Florida Atlantic Owls (25-8, 6-2 neutral, 16-17 ATS) are hoping to spark new magic on Friday when they face the #9 Northwestern Wildcats (21-11, 1-2 neutral, 17-13-2 ATS) in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
The Northwestern vs FAU odds opened with the Wildcats as slight 1.5-point favorites but that spread has completely flipped, and now the Owls are three-point chalk as of Thursday morning.
Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern Wildcats | +3 (-115) | +130 | Over 142 (-108) |
| FAU Owls | -3 (-105) | -155 | Under 142 (-112) |
On the moneyline, FAU has moved from +105 underdog to -155 favorite to advance, while the Wildcats have faded from -125 to +130. The game total, which opened at 140.5, has been bet up to 142 in Friday’s college basketball odds.
Editor’s note: as of early Friday morning, FAU had shortened even further to -175, while the Northwestern vs FAU point spread had moved to 3.5. The game total has risen all the way to 143.
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Odds as of March 21. Download the best March Madness betting apps to wager on Northwestern vs FAU.
The winner of Northwestern vs FAU will move onto face the winner of #1 UConn vs #16 Stetson in the second round of the March Madness bracket.
Both teams were listed at +6000 to win the East Region in the opening Final Four odds at DraftKings. FAU is now +4000 while the Wildcats are +5000.
FAU Pairs Quality Wins with Head-Scratching Losses
With the majority of last year’s Final Four production returning (including all four leading scorers), expectations had never been higher in Boca Raton than they were heading into this season. But the Owls’ 10-3 record in the non-con was an omen of things to come.
FAU picked up impressive neutral-court wins over Arizona (96-95 OT) Texas A&M (96-89), and Virginia Tech (84-50) while suffering ugly losses to Bryant (61-52 home) and Florida Gulf Coast (72-68), who finished the year 174th and 241st at KenPom, respectively.
The Owls managed a 14-4 record in AAC play, good enough for second in the conference behind South Florida, but bowed out of the AAC Tournament in the semifinals to Temple (74-73) as massive 14-point favorites, blowing an eight-point halftime lead in the process.
Junior guard Johnell Davis has become one of the most-dangerous players in the country this year, averaging 18.2 PPG along with 6.3 RPG and 3.0 APG. Seven-one center Vladislav Goldin has also upped his production (15.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG) while connecting at a much better rate from the free-throw line (65.4% vs 59.1% last year) and doing a better job of staying out of foul trouble.
The big issue for the Owls has been defense. The team finished last season rated 34th in efficiency at KenPom, yet sit outside the top-100 this season (107th) while employing almost identical personnel.
Northwestern Holds Its Own in Stacked Big Ten
With seven teams in KenPom’s top 50, the Big Ten rated as the second-strongest conference in the nation this year (just behind the Big 12). Led by senior point guard Boo Buie (19.2 PPG, 5.1 APG), the Wildcats managed to finish tied for third in the 14-team conference in the regular season at 12-8, while also securing a non-conference win over Dayton early in the year (71-66 home).
Undoubtedly the highlight of Northwestern’s season was a 92-88 OT win over then-#2 Purdue in Evanston, spearheaded by a season-high 31-point outburst from Buie.
The Purdue win was just one of five victories Northwestern landed over fellow NCAA Tournament teams. Though, overall, the Wildcats were just 5-7 straight-up against tournament teams.
The Wildcats were dealt some significant injuries in the back-half of the season. Senior guard Ty Berry (11.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG) is out with a knee injury while senior center Matthew Nicholson (6.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG) is out with a leg injury.
The shorthanded Wildcats went just 4-4 down the stretch, including a 70-61 loss to Wisconsin in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament on March 15. Including the Wisconsin game, which took place in Minneapolis, Northwestern only played three neutral-court games all season, beating Rhode Island (72-61) and losing to Mississippi State (66-57), both in Connecticut.
Last season, the Wildcats reached the NCAA Tournament as a #7 seed and got past #10 Boise State (75-67) in the first round before falling to #2 UCLA (68-63) in the second.
Northwestern vs FAU Prediction
The Wildcats are the antithesis of this year’s FAU team. Northwestern plays resolute defense (22nd in efficiency) but has a slow-paced, lackluster offense (88th in efficiency and 315th in tempo) and is just 320th in the country in effective field-goal percentage (47.3%), compared to FAU in 25th (55.0%).
Northwestern is well below average from three (32.1%) while FAU is one of the better teams in the nation from deep (35.6%, 83rd), led by Davis who’s connecting at a career-best 42.5%.
I don’t like laying three points in what projects to be a close game, but I am going to back FAU to win. They are more experienced and – especially with the Wildcats suffering from injuries – deeper. I also trust that Dusty May will have his defensive issues somewhat cleaned up now that it’s tournament time. FAU averaged just 66.5 points against in its four March Madness victories last season before falling 72-71 to San Diego State in the Final Four.
Northwestern vs FAU picks:
- Florida Atlantic moneyline (-150)
- Goldin over 7.5 rebounds (-120)
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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
