Ohio State vs UNC Picks & Odds (Dec. 17)
- North Carolina is a 1.5-point favorite in the Ohio State vs UNC odds on Saturday afternoon
- The Tar Heels have lost four straight games away from home
- See the Ohio State vs UNC odds and predictions below
How the mighty have fallen. North Carolina started the season as the number one ranked team in the nation. A month later they find themselves on the outside of the top-25 looking in.
UNC (7-4, 1-1 ACC) will go searching for its first win over a top-50 opponent this season on Saturday, as they face #23 Ohio State (7-2, 1-0 Big Ten) in the CBS Sports Classic in New York City.
Online sportsbooks are bullish on their winning prospects, as they opened the Tar Heels as the short chalk in the college basketball odds.
Ohio State vs UNC Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State Buckeyes | +1.5 (-110) | OFF | OFF |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | -1.5 (-110) | OFF | OFF |
Odds as of December 16 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on the Ohio State vs UNC game.
UNC opened as a 1.5-point favorite, in a game without a total as of Friday evening. Tip-off is scheduled for 3pm ET at the historic Madison Square Garden Arena, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.
Ohio State vs UNC Betting Analysis
After starting the season 5-0, the Tar Heels proceeded to drop four straight games. Each of those contests was away from home, while each was also against a top-35 opponent. North Carolina was outscored by 27 points during that stretch and failed to cover the spread in each contest. They enter play just 3-8 ATS overall, although they have covered in back-to-back outings.
Offense certainly hasn’t been their issue, as they enter play ranked ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom.
Give the people what they want.pic.twitter.com/hReAghrVrO
— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) December 14, 2022
Four starters average in double-figures, led by the 18 points from Caleb Love and the 16.4 points of Armando Bacot. Defensively however, they’ve looked nothing like a National Championship odds contender.
North Carolina ranks 245th in scoring defense, and 59th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’ve yielded an average of 82.5 points to top-35 programs this season, including a season-high 103 to #7 Alabama, one of only two ranked schools they’ve played so far.
Life won’t get any easier for UNC in its own end on Saturday, as the Buckeyes bring the nation’s 38th-highest scoring offense into play. Ohio State ranks fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency, and has put up big numbers against almost everyone they’ve faced.
Can't explain how I feel, I'm just happy I'm here 👑💯 #Team124 #BuckeyeNation pic.twitter.com/iIyP7RPbNg
— Zed Key (@iamzedkey) December 9, 2022
The Buckeyes have played five top-65 teams so far, scoring at least 72 points in all but one of those outings. They’re 3-2 in those games straight up, but just 2-3 against the spread. All five Ohio State starters average in double-figures, led by star forward Zed Key.
Defensively, they’ve been superior to the Tar Heels, allowing only 63 points per game, while holding enemy shooters to a 45% effective field goal percentage.
Ohio State vs UNC Prediction
OSU is also one of college basketball’s top rebounding teams, which is going to minimize one of UNC’s biggest strengths. Led by Bacot, North Carolina ranks 26th in total rebounding, but the Buckeyes check in at number 18.
With Key leading the way, Ohio State is especially proficient on the offensive glass. They rank 13th in offensive rebounds per game, and fifth in offensive rebounding percentage. That’s led to an abundance of second chance opportunities this season, and we should expect similar production on Saturday.
NCAAB Offensive Rebounding Percentage Leaders
| Team | Rank |
|---|---|
| Houston | 1 |
| Duke | 2 |
| Mississippi State | 3 |
| Tennessee | 4 |
| Ohio State | 5 |
The Bacot vs Key matchup is going to be a critical factor in determining Saturday’s winner. Key has produced 22 points and at least eight boards in two of his past three outings, while Bacot is fresh off four straight double-doubles.
North Carolina has crumbled in each of its four games away from home versus quality opposition, and until they prove they can beat a top ranked team, they cannot be trusted.
The Buckeyes rate higher than the Tar Heels in both KenPom’s metric and the NET Rankings and should be the rightful favorite in this matchup.
Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5 (-110)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
