Purdue vs Rutgers Picks and Odds (Dec. 9)

Odds as of December 8th, 2021.

Matt Painter’s club got a scare at home against the Hawkeyes last week, only leading by a pair with just over 3:00 remaining. But Trevion Williams displayed his senior leadership down the stretch, finishing with 13 points and 18 rebounds, and Purdue closed out the seven-point win.

Meantime, Steve Pickiell’s guys shut down the nation’s leading scoring in a 35-point loss. But neutralizing Kofi Cockburn — who was averaging 26.8 points per game coming in and scored a season-low 13 — was not nearly enough. Rutgers only managed 31% shooting from the field and made just 2-of-4 from the free-throw line against the Fighting Illini.

Charity Case

If the Scarlet Knights want to beat the Boilers a fourth-straight time (chew on that for a second), Rutgers needs to get to the charity stripe more than four times Thursday. Purdue has outscored its opponents by 77 points at the free throw line this season, the top discrepancy in the country. There’s not one particular player on Painter’s roster Rutgers can focus on shutting down — several have been dazzling.

Purdue has NINE starters.

Matt Painter's best chance to get to a Final Four.

NO ONE is winning this year at Mackey Arena. https://t.co/w8I0zFePOI

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) December 1, 2021

Purdue is flat-out dominating college basketball this season. The Boilermakers have the best offensive adjusted efficiency and offensive effective field-goal percentage in the country and rank in the top-10 in four other offensive categories.

Between the perimeter play of Jaden Ivey and Sasha Stefanovic and the frontcourt led by Williams and Zach Edey — all of whom are averaging in double-figures — there are very few weaknesses on Purdue right now. Rutgers faces a tall order at home.

David vs Goliath

The Scarlet Knights are arguably the worst team in the Big Ten through eight games. In the inaugural NCAA NET rankings, they weighed in at a humbling 217th. In the meantime, they’ve fallen to triple-digits in KenPom’s offensive adjusted efficiency rankings for the first time in nearly three years. Following upset losses to DePaul, Lafayette and UMass, a group that entered the 2021-22 docket with expectations of returning to the Big Dance may already be eliminated — barring a miraculous conference tourney run. Pickiell’s team got utterly smoked by Illinois.

The biggest problem? Rutgers is struggling to score in any fashion. The team can’t shoot from anywhere, ranking 320th in effective field goal percentage —  or get to the free throw line (206th in free throw rate and 280th in free throw percentage).

Making matters worse is the team’s health. Multiple players have come down with the flu in recent days — a less-than-ideal situation when you’re trying to take down the top team in the sport.

The Pick

Another question mark for Rutgers is the status of senior guard Geo Baker. He’s missed the last three games with a hamstring injury and is averaging 11.2 points and 4.0 assists per game. His experience — he has not lost to Purdue since January 2019 — and leadership are invaluable. If he’s on the floor, Rutgers has a chance to keep this relatively close.

But without him, this could get ugly in a hurry. The Scarlet Knights have never beaten the nation’s top team, losing their first nine attempts by an average of 19.5 points. Considering the Scarlet Knights’ myriad health issues — and Purdue’s dominance — this feels like a blowout is brewing.

Pick: Purdue -11.5 (-115)