Cincinnati vs Houston Odds and Picks for 2021 AAC Championship Game
- The Cincinnati Bearcats are 10.5-point home favorites over the Houston Cougars in the AAC Championship Game on Saturday, December 4th
- Unbeaten 12-0 Cincinnati are ranked #3 in the NCAA and seeking first CFP berth
- The two teams have split their last four meetings
The Houston Cougars are all that stand in the way of the Cincinnati Bearcats and a place in NCAA football history. These two schools will clash this Saturday in Cincinnati with the American Athletic Conference (AAC) Championship on the line.
The 12-0 Bearcats, ranked #3 in the nation, are seeking to become the first team from a non-power-five conference to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. A win over the 11-1 Cougars should make it so.
Oddsmakers are setting Cincinnati as a heavy 10.5-point favorite to beat the Cougars. The Bearcats are just 7-5 against the spread this season.
Houston vs Cincinnati AAC Championship Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Cougars | +330 | +10.5 (-110) | O 53.5 (-110) |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | -450 | -10.5 (-110) | U 53.5 (-110) |
Odds as of December 1st at FanDuel.
Kickoff for the game at Nippert Stadium is set for 4pm ET. The forecast is calling for clouds, 5 mph wind and a temperature of 50 degrees. ABC is broadcasting the game.
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Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Trends
The Bearcats are defending AAC champions. They are in the conference championship game for the third successive year. They’ve won 26 games in a row at Nippert Stadium. Cincinnati is the nation’s #8 scoring offense (39.6 points per game).
The Bearcats and current #1 Georgia are the only two teams in the nation that rank in the top 10 in both scoring offense (UC: 39.6, 8th) and scoring defense (UC: 15.8, 3rd), and the nation’s only two teams without a loss. Cincinnati is 21-1 record (.955) since the start of 2020. The Bearcats’ only loss over the last 23 months was a 24-21 setback to Georgia in the 2020 Peach Bowl. UC is the only team with a double-digit road victory over a CFP Top 10 team. The Bearcats won 24-13 at current CFP #6 Notre Dame.
Desmond Ridder tosses a floater for six!
No. 4 Cincinnati is on the board 💪 pic.twitter.com/RpAKa7ykSx
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 26, 2021
Defensively, the Bearcats defense is rated #3 in the nation at red zone percentage (.639). The Bearcats rank #2 in pass efficiency defense (95.88), #2 in opponent completion percentage (52.6%), #3 in pass yards allowed (161.5), #3 in interceptions (17), #3 in yards per play allowed (4.3), #3 in TD passes allowed (8) and #8 in total defense (303.3). Cincinnati ranks #2 in the country in turnovers gained (28) and tied for 10th in turnover margin (10).
Individually, quarterback Desmond Ridder has thrown for 3,000 yards, with 27 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Running back Jerome Ford has a team-high 1,055 yards and 17 TDs. Six different Bearcats receivers are over 200 yards on the year.
Houston Cougars Betting Trends
The Cougars rank 10th in the country in scoring offense (38.8 PPG) and sixth in total defense (289.9 YPG). Houston also features one of the country’s most dynamic returners in Marcus Jones. He has two punt return touchdowns in 2021. A cornerback, Jones also has picked off five passes in 2021.
Dana Holgorsen on having to play at Nippert Stadium for the AAC Championship Game:
“I sure wish it was a neutral site game. That’s what most conferences do. I don’t know why we don’t”— James Mueller (@jdm2186) November 27, 2021
The Cougars are in the AAC title game for the first time since 2015. QB Clayton Tune has thrown for 3,013 yards, with 26 touchdowns against eight interceptions. Alton McCaskill has rushed for 844 yards with 16 TDs. Receiver Nathaniel Dell has 71 receptions for 1,027 yards and 11 TDs.
On defense, the Cougars are stingy, allowing just 19.8 PPG. Houston is 7-5 against the spread this season.
Cougars vs Bearcats Prediction
Both of these teams are displaying an ability to pile up the points this season. Cincinnati (64) and Houston (61) are among 11 NCAA teams with more than 60 touchdowns scored. One area where Cincinnati shows an edge is in takeaways, where the Bearcats hold a 31-22 advantage.
In their most recent meeting, Cincinnati beat Houston 38-10 in 2020. The Bearcats have won the last two games from Houston but they are 2-2 through the past four clashes. Houston’s last victory in Cincinnati was a 40-16 verdict in 2016.
Highest passing grades over the last 3 weeks:
▪️ Clayton Tune, Houston – 93.1
▪️ Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati – 92.7AAC Championship game 🍿 pic.twitter.com/7AxcJy79gd
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 23, 2021
Houston is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season. Cincinnati is 4-5 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. Houston’s only prior game against a ranked team resulted in the only loss suffered by the Cougars this season. They fell 49-31 to the #7 Oklahoma Sooners in their season opener on September 1.
Cincinnati is going to win but the Bearcats aren’t going to cover. Take the Cougars and the points.
- Pick: Houston Cougars +10.5 (-110).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
