College Football Upset Picks Today (Saturday, Sept. 2)
- The first full weekend of college football brings upset opportunities
- Wyoming, Coastal Carolina and Northwestern are waiting to pounce
- Read below for analysis and predictions for college football Week 1 upsets
It’s the first full weekend of college football … aka the start of upset season. It is never too early to find cover/outright win opportunities, so let’s dig in. Wyoming’s veteran group was a minute and a misguided pass short of making the Mountain West championship game a year ago and it returns many from a defense that was top four in the league.
Coastal Carolina breaks in a new coach but returns ultra-efficient quarterback Grayson McCall, who is the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt Player of the Year award. Northwestern opens the season with an “us against the world” mantra after a traumatic offseason, and it has not been beaten down by the world yet.
Check out these three upset plays.
Texas Tech vs Wyoming Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | -14 (-105) | -650 | Over 50.5 (-110) |
| Wyoming Cowboys | +14 (-115) | +460 | Under 50.5 (-110) |
All odds from Caesars Sportsbook on Sept. 1. Check out the top College Football Betting Apps for making upset picks today.
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Upset Pick #1: Wyoming runs through Texas Tech
Wyoming returns 15 starters from a team that opened the 2022 season 7-3 and was a last-minute, end zone interception away from beating eventual Mountain West champion Boise State for the Mountain Division title in the penultimate week of the regular season, a 20-17 loss.
Wyoming’s offense is built on running the ball between the tackles, and Texas Tech showed itself to be vulnerable against the run last season. The Red Raiders gave up 169 yards rushing per game and a 4.3-yard average a year ago. Northern Illinois transfer Harrison Waylee will replace Cowboys’ leading rusher Titus Swen (1,054 yards), who was kicked off the team prior to last year’s bowl game. Waylee rushed for 179 yards against the Cowboys in 2021.
The moneyline gives Texas Tech an 86.7 implied win probability here, and this is a step up in class for the Cowpokes, who are a big underdog in the college football odds. Wyoming performed well in this spot in its last home opener against a Power 5 opponent, beating Missouri 37-31 as a 16.5-point dog. Texas Tech just could be peeking ahead to its home opener against No. 15 Oregon next week.
- Pick: Wyoming +14 (+430)
Coastal Carolina vs UCLA Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Chanticleers | +15.5 (-115) | +475 | Over 66 (-110) |
| UCLA Bruins | -15..5 (-105) | -700 | Under 66 (-110) |
Odds from BetMGM on Sept. 1.
Upset Pick #2: Coastal Carolina Brings the QB
UCLA landed on junior quarterback Ethan Garbers to start the season opener after a stiff fall competition with five-star recruit Dante Moore and Kent State transfer Collin Schlee, and Bruins coach Chip Kelly said all three will play today. Coastal, meanwhile, brings by far the most efficient and most experienced signal-caller into the game in fifth-year senior Grayson McCall.
🚨BREAKING🚨
🏈| Ethan Garbers will start for UCLA vs. CCU!
📊|Career Stats Comparison for the QB Matchup! pic.twitter.com/krC9cwj1SN— The Chant Show (@TheChantShow) August 29, 2023
McCall is the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference Player of the year, and the Sun Belt knows something about upsets. Appalachian State won at Texas A&M in the second week of 2022, the same week Marshall won at Notre Dame and Georgia Southern won at Nebraska. UCLA will out-athlete the Chanticleers and has an 87.5 percent implied win probability, but the Bruins lost a lot of big-time contributors were this close (32-31) to losing to Sun Belt South Alabama last year.
- Pick: Coastal Carolina +13.5 (+475)
Northwestern vs Rutgers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern Wildcats | +6.5 (-110) | +205 | Over 39.5 (-110) |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | -6.5 (-110) | -250 | Under 39.5 (-110) |
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook on Sept. 1.
Upset Pick #3: Northwestern on a Mission
Us against the world is a powerful, motivator, especially if the world has not beaten you down yet. Northwestern’s offseason problems are well-documented — head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired for failing to “know and prevent significant hazing in the football program” after current and former players went public, and lawsuits have been filed. In response, some players wore “Cats against the world” t-shirts during fall practice.
The Wildcats lost their final 11 games last season after injuries KOd their top two quarterbacks, but they return eight starters on defense. Transfer quarterback Ben Bryant will be asked to resuscitate an offense that averaged a Power 5-low 13.8 points per game. Rutgers is rebuilding in coach Greg Schiano’s fourth year back. While neither is a threat to win the conference according to the college win totals, the Wildcats have won both Big Ten meetings.
- Pick: Northwestern +6.5 (+205)
Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
