Florida 11.5-Point Favorites vs LSU in Week 7 as Both Come off Upset Losses

• The LSU Tigers (1-2) face the Florida Gators (2-1) Saturday, October 17 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
• Both LSU & Florida are coming off upset losses in the third week of SEC play
• Here is the opening line as well as a list of storylines that could cause an odds adjustment prior to kickoff

SEC defenses just aren’t what they used to be.

Both Florida and LSU were upset on Saturday after poor showings on the defensive side of the ball. One of the two will get back into the win column when they meet October 17 in Gainesville, Florida.

LSU vs Florida Odds

Odds taken October 11th from FanDuel

The opening LSU vs Florida odds have the Gators listed as home favorites. Here’s an in-depth look at both programs as well as a key scheduling note which could move the line by kickoff.

Gators Reeling After Upset Loss to Texas A&M

Florida entered the game against Texas A&M with a perfect 2-0 record but ended up on the wrong side of a 41-38 affair. The Aggies gashed the Gator defense for 543 yards. They went an incredible 12-for-15 on 3rd down, which helped keep drives alive at key moments. One bright spot for Florida was the play of quarterback Kyle Trask. He finished the loss with 312 passing yards and four touchdowns and continues to look like one of the best players in college football.

My heart hurts for my @FloridaGators but credit to @TheKellenMond for a great game. Worked so hard for this moment in the offseason.

— Tim Tebow (@TimTebow) October 10, 2020

One note to monitor heading into next weeks game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium will be the crowd. Florida head coach Dan Mullen said Texas A&M’s crowd was a major factor in the loss. He called on his own administration to allow for full attendance next week against LSU. While the Aggies only had a crowd of 24,709, Mullen hopes to fill the Swamp with the full 90,000 it can fit. If the athletic department caves to the request, this line could make Florida an even bigger favorite come kickoff.

LSU Have Major Question Marks On Defense

LSU is now 1-2 on the season after an upset loss to Missouri. They allowed 586 total yards of offense and looked nothing like the national championship winning outfit of last season. This doesn’t appear to be an outlier either. LSU gave up an SEC record 623 passing yards to K.J. Costello in their season opening loss to Mississippi State. The defensive issues have been persistent since the first quarter of game one and it appears to have head coach Ed Orgeron concerned.

Ed Orgeron : "It was all on the defense. We have to get it fixed." #LSU

— Brody Miller (@BrodyAMiller) October 10, 2020

To put these defensive performances into context, the Tigers have now allowed 96 points in the first three games of the year. That’s the highest point total allowed through three games in program history. Much like Florida, the offense was still able to score in a losing cause, but it’s tough to see how they will be able to iron out all the problems before traveling to Gainesville.

Expect Line Movement Prior To Saturday

The defending national champions are 1-2 and have one of the most quotable head coaches in the country. They will surely see their fair share of face time on ESPN during the week. With all the press focusing on their poor early season performance, expect the betting public to fade the Tigers. Couple that with the possibility Florida may be given the green light to pack the stadium and this line couple move in a significant way. If you’re looking to bet the Gators do it early, if you’re siding with the Tigers waiting until closer to kickoff could be the best bet.