Florida State vs Louisville Odds and Picks
- Florida State is a 2.5-point road favorite over Louisville on Friday, September 16th at 7:30pm ET at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, KY
- The Seminoles are fresh off upsetting LSU in Week 1, while the Cardinals took down UCF last week
- Read below for the Florida State vs Louisville odds, analysis and a betting prediction
The first ACC Friday Night lights game goes down this week in Louisville, as the Cardinals (1-1, 0-1 ACC) host undefeated Florida State (2-0, 0-0 ACC).
This game opened as a pick’em in the college football lines, but it did not stay that way for long. Early bettors are buying the Seminoles hype, which has forced oddsmakers to adjust.
Florida State vs Louisville Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State Seminoles | -2.5 (-115) | -135 | O 54.5 (-115) |
| Louisville Cardinals | +2.5 (-105) | +115 | U 54.5 (-105) |
Odds as of September 12th at Barstool Sportsbook. Get the Barstool Sportsbook promo code.
Florida State is currently a 2.5 point favorite, in a contest that features a total of 54.5. We shouldn’t be surprised if this line moves even further in the Seminoles direction, as online sportsbooks are taking action almost exclusively on the favorite.
92% of the against the spread bets and 91% of the ATS money is backing Florida State. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm ET at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, KY, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Analysis
One of the reasons the betting splits are so one-sided is because Louisville has drastically underwhelmed so far. The Cardinals had high hopes after returning 17 starters, but they’ve looked nothing like a conference contender.
They were blasted by Syracuse in Week 1, and needed to rally to get past UCF in Week 2. The offense in particular has been an issue. They’re averaging 13.5 points per game, while Heisman Trophy odds longshot Malik Cunningham has been a disappointment.
No offense to Malik Cunningham, but he should not be getting compared to Lamar Jackson. pic.twitter.com/fPm9r0EzRQ
— Bradon Deacon (@BradonDeacon) September 10, 2022
After nearly 3,000 passing yards and over 1,000 rushing yards in 2021, Cunningham is completing just 59% of his passes so far. He’s committed three turnovers, and has yet to throw a touchdown pass. Cunningham has contributed 155 yards and a score on the ground, but Louisville is going to need a lot stronger numbers from him to stay competitive with the Seminoles.
Defensively, the effort has been better. That unit was the key to the come-from-behind win in Week 2, making 10 consecutive stops at one point to keep the game close.
The Cardinals are returning 10 starters on that side of the ball, but they still haven’t fixed their issues stopping the run, which plagued them last year. Louisville has allowed 208 yards on the ground in back-to-back games, and will be hard-pressed to stop a Florida State program that ranks fifth in the nation in rushing.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Analysis
The Seminoles were off in Week 2, after opening the season with a blowout win over Duquesne and a nail-biting victory over LSU. Dual-threat QB Jordan Travis has been efficient under center, throwing for 200+ yards in both games, while contributing three total TD and 42 yards rushing.
Jordan Travis had a night:
🔘 20/33 260 yards
🔘 2 passing TDs
🔘 7.9 yards per attempt
🔘 151.4 passer ratingSeminoles are 2-0 pic.twitter.com/1i8ANbBDdZ
— Ben Muad’dib Meyerson (@ByBenMeyerson) September 5, 2022
In addition to Travis’ legs, Florida State has a three-headed monster in the backfield led by Treshaun Ward. This program wants to establish the run early and often, and currently average 269 rushing yards per game, on 46 carries. The season may be young, but through two weeks the Seminoles are the 12th ranked offense per ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Defensively, Florida State did a number on LSU holding them to just three points through 45 minutes. They took their foot off the gas in the final 15 minutes, yielding three scores, but they’re allowing only 256 total yards per contest so far.
Florida State vs Louisville Pick
This game will move to Seminoles -3 in no time, and it could go even higher from there. If you like Florida State, you’d better bet them quickly.
These two programs have met 23 times over the past 70 years, with the Seminoles holding a 17-6 edge. Florida state ranks 26 spots higher than Louisville per FPI, and 20 spots better per SP+. They have the offensive philosophy to expose the Cardinals’ defensive weakness, while Cunningham and the Louisville offense has shown no signs of being a dangerous unit.
Pick: Florida State -2.5 (-115)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
