Miami Now a 7.5-Point Underdog vs Florida After Jarren Williams Named Starter

• The Miami Hurricanes have decided to go with Jarren Williams as their starting quarterback
• Miami finished with the No. 3 overall defense last season in total yards allowed
• The Florida Gators enter the season as the No. 8 team in the country

The Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators will get the 150th college football season started this Saturday night at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

Miami opened as an eight-point dog but the line has now moved to 7.5 after head coach Manny Diaz ended the quarterback competition by naming redshirt freshman Jarren Williams the starter.

Florida vs Miami Odds

*Odds taken August 21, 2019. 

Hurricanes Go With Williams Over Martell

There was a lot of excitement around the Miami program when they managed to lure former Ohio State quarterback Tate Martell as a transfer. The quarterback was one of the highest rated passers coming out of college and backed up Dwayne Haskins last season, then left the Buckeyes soon after Justin Fields transferred into the program in the spring.

Miami’s QB1, Jarren Williams, at Media Day. pic.twitter.com/n5K9rjDUDc

— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) August 13, 2019

While Martell was expected to win the job, it was Williams – a player who fell out of favour with last year’s coaching staff – who earned the starting role. He shed weight and worked on his body in the offseason, while also showed he’s the best pure passer in the ‘Canes QB room right now.

Betting Line Has Jumped Around

We’ve seen a little bit of line movement in this game, although most of it has been non-consequential in terms of crossing key numbers. It opened at Florida -8, dropped to -7 and now sits at -7.5 -115.

It’s the first game of the season and we don’t exactly know how good these teams are, so that’s why we’re likely seeing the small moves. The Hurricanes quarterback situation was baked into the price, so it’s not as if this is breaking news. That’s why we’re not seeing a big jump one way or another.

How Good Is Florida?

The Gators enter the season as the No. 8 team in the country. Are they actually that good, though?

There’s no question that they had an impressive 10-win campaign last season but remember that this team still lost to Kentucky (at home), Georgia and Missouri. Other than beating LSU and Michigan – if you think highly of them – they didn’t beat too many elite teams.

I do think the Gators are a good team. They’ll be able to run the ball well, their defense is very good and if Feleipe Franks can take another step in his development, this team could win the SEC East.

However, I still view this as a very good but flawed team. The passing game is likely to be a weekly question mark – starting with this week – and if that’s the case, this team will have to grind out wins with their ground game and defense. That won’t work consistently against Top 10 teams.

What’s The Best Bet?

These two teams kind of mirror each other: they both play defense well, they both should be able to run and they both have question marks at quarterback. Florida is slightly further ahead – in almost all of those areas – so I’d give them the slight edge in this game.

If I was betting the spread, I’d take Miami as I think the Gators probably win but inside of the number. However, the bet I like here is the under. With two challenged offenses and two good defenses, we should see this game stay around 45 total points.