Miami (OH) vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Picks for 2023 MAC Championship Game

• Miami (OH) and Toledo battle for the Mid-American Conference Championship on Saturday
• Toledo is looking to be the first team to win back-to-back MAC Championships since Northern Illinois in 2011 and 2012
• Read below for Miami (OH) vs Toledo odds, picks, and predictions for the MAC Championship

This weekend, Miami (OH) (10-2, 9-3 ATS) and Toledo (11-1, 6-6 ATS) play in the Conference Championship for the Mid-American Conference. This matchup kicks off at noon EST this Saturday at Ford Field in Detroit, MI.

Toledo is favored by a little over a touchdown on Saturday, and the total is the second-lowest of the weekend when it comes to the college football odds at 44. These two teams played earlier in the season, and the Rockets defeated Miami (OH) on the road 21-17. Toledo was -2 in that game on October 21.

Miami (OH) vs Toledo Odds

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Miami (OH) Betting Outlook

Miami (OH) enters this game with a 10-2 record. The RedHawks went 7-1 in conference play, with their only loss coming against Toledo. It is Miami (OH)’s first time in the MAC Championship since 2019 where they defeated Central Michigan 26-21.

A 10 Win Season calls for a Top 10 Plays⬇️

The job's not finished.#RiseUpRedHawks | 🎓🏆 pic.twitter.com/fGNwX9BXPF

— Miami Football (@MiamiOHFootball) December 1, 2023

After a 38-3 loss to Miami (FL), the RedHawks bounced back with four straight wins. Brett Gabbert had the Miami (OH) offense rolling before getting injured against Toledo. Aveon Smith has filled in for the rest of the season and has played well enough to lead the RedHawks to the MAC Championship game. Smith is not the passer that Gabbert is, but he adds an element with his legs that could cause fits for Toledo.

The offense has done their part as they are second in the MAC in points per game (27.3), and only trail Toledo. The main reason why Miami (OH) is playing this weekend is because of their defense. Miami (OH) is great at causing havoc, and they rank second in the MAC in points allowed per game with 16.3.

Toledo Betting Outlook

Toledo comes into this one ranked as the No. 23 team in the country after finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record. Their only loss was a 30-28 defeat in Week 1 against Illinois in a game that went down to the wire. The Rockets swept conference play this season and are now looking to win back-to-back MAC Championships. Toledo defeated Ohio 17-7 in last year’s championship game. They would be the first team to win back-to-back MAC Championships since Northern Illinois did it in 2011 and 2012.

Toledo’s conference-leading offense is led by quarterback DeQuan Finn. Finn is a true dual-threat quarterback who has thrown for 2384 yards this season and has accounted for 27 total touchdowns. The Rockets average 431 yards per game and 35.3 points per game.

While the offense has stolen the show this season for Toledo, they do not have a bad defense. The Rockets are third in their conference in points allowed. They have only allowed 20.3 points per game. It has been a dominant season for Toledo, and they will look to continue that dominance with the hopes of a New Year’s Six Bowl not completely out of the question.

Miami vs Toledo Prediction

These teams both have head coaches who have played in this game before, and they know each other well. The first meeting between these two teams ended 21-17, which would have gone under the total of 44. A similar score could be seen on Saturday with two strong defenses.

Toledo’s offense has been prolific, but they were shut out in the second half when they played earlier in the year. Since Gabbert went down, Miami (OH) has ran the ball much more, resulting in longer possessions. The RedHawks are looking for revenge in this game as well. This championship game should be a close, low-scoring game, and the O/U appears to be heading in the correct direction.

Picks:

• Under 44 (-110)
• Miami (OH) +7.5 (-105)