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Michigan vs TCU CFP Semifinal Opening Odds – Wolverines 9.5-Point Favorites over the Horned Frogs at Fiesta Bowl

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Updated Dec 4, 2022 · 9:32 AM PST

Michigan running back Donovan Edwards flexes after a win
Michigan running back Donovan Edwards (7) waves at fans after the Wolverines won the Big Ten Championship after defeating Purdue 43-22 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind., on Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022.
  • Unbeaten Michigan will meet one-loss TCU in a CFP semifinal in the Fiesta Bowl December 31
  • No. 2 Michigan opened as a 9.5-point favorite over the Horned Frogs in Glendale, Arizona
  • Read below for the opening Michigan vs TCU odds and projected line movement for Week 11

No. 2 Michigan (13-0) opened as a 9.5-point favorite over No. 3 TCU (12-1) in the College Football Playoff semifinal game in the Fiesta Bowl on December 31 in Glendale, Arizona. The Wolverines beat Purdue 43-22 in the Big Ten championship game Saturday to make their second straight appearance in the CFP Final Four.

No. 3 TCU (12-1) will made its first appearance in the CFP FInal Four. The Horned Frogs won their first 12 games before falling to Kansas State 31-28 in overtime in the Big 12 championship game Saturday.

Michigan vs TCU Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Michigan Wolverines -9.5 (-115) -385 Over 58.5 (-110)
TCU Horned Frogs +9.5 (-105) +300 Under 58.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel on Dec. 4. Claim the Fanduel Sportsbook promo code.

Michigan was installed as a 9.5 favorite over TCU in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl early Sunday, even before the pairing was officially announced. The Wolverines are 8-4-1 ATS this season and 5-1-1 in their last seven, failing to cover only in a 19-17 victory over Illinois as a 17-point favorite on Nov. 19. Their 29-7 victory over Michigan State on Oct. 29 was a push. The total has gone over the number in four of Michigan’s last seven.

 

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TCU is 9-3-1 ATS, among the best records in the FBS, and had won and covered five of the last six until falling as a one-point to Kansas State. Six of the Horned Frogs’ first eight games went over the total; four of their last five have gone under.

Michigan Marches On

Michigan closed the season with dominating victories over Ohio State and Purdue behind an offensive line that controlled the line of scrimmage. The Wolverines had 252 of their 530 yards offense on the ground in a 45-23 victory over the Buckeyes and followed that with 225 yards rushing in the 43-22 victory over Purdue.

The Wolverines’ offense ranks seventh in the NCAA in scoring offense at 40.1 points per game and sixth in rushing offense at 243 yards per game, and the loss of Heisman Trophy candidate Blake Corum to a season-ending knee injury has not hampered the attack. Donovan Edwards had his second consecutive strong game with 185 yards and a touchdown in the Big Ten title game after going for 216 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State, scoring on 75- and 85-yard runs in the second half.

Michigan’s defense bent but did not break against the Boilermakers, who actually outgained Michigan by 70 yards but was ineffective in the red zone. Each team scored six times, but Purdue was forced to settle for five field goals.

Heisman Odds After Week 14: Max Duggan Makes Final Push
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TCU So Close to Perfect

The Horned Frogs came within a questionable second-down spot and a two stuffed running plays from taking a lead on the first possession of overtime before losing to Kansas State on Saturday, but that immediate disappointment will be tempered by their first appearance in the CFP Final Four after being jumped in the final rankings in 2014.

Max Duggan passed for 251 yards and a touchdown and ran for 110 yards and another score against Kansas State, leading the Horned Frogs back from a 28-17 deficit in the final eight minutes to force overtime. Duggan has enters the bowl season ranked ninth in passing efficiency after throwing for 3,321 yards, 30 touchdowns and four interceptions.

First-year coach Sonny Dykes could find himself as a leading contender for national coach of the year honors after trading sides of the Metroplex in a move from SMU.

Expected Line Movement

Spread-buster Michigan has been a hard sell in recent seasons — check out the last two Michigan-Ohio State lines — but is likely to be bet up by the public into a double-digit favorite after blowing out the Buckeyes and Boilermakers the last two weeks. TCU has a remarkable comeback history this season, and smart shoppers who follow that trend will want to see if they can increase their value as the game nears.

 

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