Sportsbook Releases Props for Top NCAA Running Backs; What’s the Best Bet for Each?

• Jonathan Taylor led the nation with 2194 rushing yards in 2018.
• D’Andre Swift had 1049 rushing yards but shared carries with Elijah Holyfield.
• Travis Etienne led the country with 24 rushing touchdowns while adding two more receiving touchdowns.

As the college football season is set to get underway this Saturday, it’s last call for a number of season-long props. That includes running back over-unders for yards and touchdowns, which a sportsbook just released. With a number of options to sift through, let’s see where there’s value on the board.

D’Andre Swift Props

*Odds taken at 8/22/19

Will Swift Top 1050 Rushing Yards?

Swift is facing a couple of props with high numbers, as he’ll have to finish with 1051 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns to hit the overs in both categories. The Georgia tailback had 1049 rushing yards last season along with 10 touchdowns, so it’s not exactly asking a huge jump up for him.

It’s also important to note that 1050 rushing yards is not a huge mark for any elite running back. There were 49 players in college football last season that had 1050 rushing yards or more. It’s also important to note that Swift shared the backfield last season as Elijah Holyfield had 1018 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

As long as Swift stays healthy, he should top these marks. Health is a concern for him, though, as he’s already been banged up in training camp, although the injuries have been minor. With Holyfield out of the picture, I’ll bet on Swift to go over in both categories.

J.K. Dobbins Props

*Odds taken at 8/22/19

What Type Of Numbers Will Dobbins Put Up?

Dobbins has a higher bar to cross than Swift for rushing yards as he’s facing a total of 1100. It’s a sizeable hurdle for him as he only had 1053 rushing yards last season. It’s worth noting that he had a big drop-off from 2017 to 2018, as he had 1403 rushing yards on just 194 carries during the 2017 season.

In 2018, he had 1053 yards on 230 carries.

What’s interesting to note here is Dobbins lost 172 carries to Mike Weber last season. This year, his backups will be the diminutive Demario McCall, who has bulked up to 195 pounds, and redshirt freshman Master Teague, who’s received significant buzz during fall camp.

My concern is that the situation is changing a bit here for the Buckeyes, as they have a new quarterback in Justin Fields and a new head coach in Ryan Day. We should mostly see the status quo but with these minor changes and Dobbins coming off a muted season, I’ll bet under on both yards and touchdowns.

Travis Etienne Props

*Odds taken at 8/22/19

Will Etienne Compile At Least 1400 Rushing Yards?

Etienne is facing a huge number here as only eight running backs surpassed the 1400-yard mark last season. The good news is he was one of them, as he blew by this mark with 1658 rushing yards.

I actually do like Etienne to get over this number again, as Clemson plays a very weak schedule this season.

Sure, he might get slowed by Texas A&M or Syracuse, but the rest of the schedule should give Etienne opportunities to run wild.

Lawrence didn’t really take over until the Syracuse game and Etienne averaged just 78.3 rushing yards per game in those four contests while Kelly Bryant was behind center. Once Lawrence took over, Etienne averaged 114.5 rushing yards per game the rest of the way, and I expect that to continue this year, with Etienne going over 1400 rushing yards.

In terms of touchdowns, Etienne also had a whopping 26 touchdowns last season. There’s no reason to think he doesn’t get to 20 as this offense will be one of the most explosive in the country. Bet the over on both of his props.

A.J. Dillon Props

*Odds taken at 8/22/19

What Kind Of Season Will Dillon Post?

A.J. Dillon was one of the surprise studs of the 2018 college football season, as he compiled 1108 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns for Boston College. The large, powerful runner doesn’t have great quickness but works well for the Eagles, who have a big offensive line to work with.

Dillon actually labored through a bum ankle last season, which is why he finished with just 1108 rushing yards compared to the 1589 he had in his first season in 2017. The oddsmakers don’t seem to be taking that into account, as he only had 227 totes last year compared to 300 in 2017.

This number should be higher as Dillon should finish up in the 1500-yard range. And in terms of touchdowns, he’s had at least 11 in each of his first two seasons, so he’ll go over as long as he’s healthy. By all accounts, he’s in the best shape that the coaching staff has seen him, so that’s a great, early sign.

Jonathan Taylor Props

*Odds taken at 8/22/19

Will Taylor Push For 2000 Yards Again?

Wisconsin is a running back factory and the latest stud in their backfield is Taylor, who is coming off an incredible season. Taylor finished with 2194 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last year. The All-American has set an NCAA record for underclassmen rushing yards, with 4171 over his first two seasons.

Taylor faces a massive over-under of 2000 yards, which is not a mark that’s often crossed. He was the only player in the country that did it last season. Between 2014 and 2017, exactly two players topped the 2000-yard mark per year.

Wisconsin has a big, solid offensive line – as per usual – but they’re also not saddled with the terrible quarterbacking of Alex Hornibrook. That will help Taylor in some ways and hurt him in others if the team is able to pass with more efficiency.

At the end of the day, I’m going to bet the under here as it’s such a high mark to get over. With Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa and Nebraska on the schedule – five Top 25 teams – I think they’ll do enough to slow down Taylor.