Ole Miss vs Alabama Odds, Lines and Prediction
- #1 Alabama is a 14.5-point home favorite over #12 Ole Miss on Saturday (October 2nd, 3:30 pm ET) at Bryant-Denny Stadium, in Tuscaloosa, AL
- The Rebels and Crimson Tide rank first and fourth respectively in the FBS in points per game
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
#1 Alabama already owns two victories over top-14 opposition this season, and will look to make it three in a row when #12 Ole Miss comes to town on Saturday (October 2nd, 3:30 pm ET).
The Crimson Tide have won 18 straight overall dating back to the start of 2020, but will face a very stiff challenge from the explosive Rebels offensive attack.
#12 Ole Miss vs #1 Alabama Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss Rebels | +450 | +14.5 (-115) | O 80.5 (-115) |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -630 | -14.5 (-105) | U 80.5 (-105) |
Odds as of Sept. 29th at DraftKings.
Alabama is currently a 14.5-point favorite, in a game that features an astonishing 80.5-point total. As of Wednesday night, 88% of the spread bets at this number were on the Crimson Tide, but that wasn’t the case earlier in the week.
The Circa sportsbook in Las Vegas opened this game Sunday afternoon with Alabama favored by 20, but were hit hard enough to move the line to -15, before settling on -14.5.
Kick-off is set for 3:30 pm ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, with ABC providing the coverage, and dry, 86 degree temperatures in the forecast.
The Case For the Crimson Tide
Alabama was put to the test a few weeks ago versus #11 Florida, barely squeaking out a victory, but returned to its dominant self last week against Southern Mississippi. Heisman Trophy Candidate Bryce Young threw five touchdown passes, completing 20-of-22 throws for 313 yards, en route to a 63-14 victory.
🐘 20/22
🐘 312 Pass Yds
🐘 5 Pass TDBryce Young doing @_bryce_young things 🎯 @AlabamaFTBL pic.twitter.com/UuxFF39yEx
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 26, 2021
Young has now posted a 15-to-1 TD-to-INT rate so far this season, racking up at least three scores in all four of his starts, and completing at least 70% of his passes in three of four outings.
Jameson Williams stole the show however, with a pair of electrifying kickoff return touchdowns, and an 81-yard catch and run score.
Jameson Williams has TWO kickoff return TDs tonight…
and an 81-yard TD catch🔥
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 26, 2021
Defensively, the Crimson Tide held the Golden Eagles to 213 total yards and 2.5 yards per carry. Stopping the run game has been Bama’s weakness so far this season, and it reared its ugly head in their matchup with the Gators. That day, Florida ran for 244 yards and four touchdowns against Nick Saban’s crew.
The Tide ranks top-five in the SEC in scoring defense and passing yards allowed, but seventh in rush defense. They’ll need to shore that up on Saturday, because this Rebels’ attack is just as likely to hit you on the ground as through the air, despite having the Heisman frontrunner under center.
Don’t Sleep On Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are averaging an FBS high 52.7 points and 635.3 yards per game. Matt Corral, who is now the favorite to take home the Heisman Trophy, has thrown for 997 yards and 9 touchdowns, while rushing for another 158 yards and five scores.
🍿GET YOUR POPCORN READY🍿
Heisman Trophy favorites Matt Corral and Bryce Young face off on Saturday! pic.twitter.com/uasg6qyy9B
— PFF NFL Podcast (@PFFNFLPod) September 28, 2021
Last time out in a 61-21 thrashing of Tulane, Corral threw for 335 yards and three TD, while rushing for another four scores. He’s yet to commit a turnover this season, and excelled last season when these two teams met.
In that meeting, Corral threw for 365 yards and two scores, while racking up 40 yards with his legs. Ole Miss ranks fourth in rushing yards per game so far, and busted Bama on the ground for 268 yards and four TD last season.
"I remind our coaches all the time, enjoy this while you have it."
–@Lane_Kiffin on what Matt Corral means to the @OleMissFB program pic.twitter.com/NFodHI6rsJ
— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) September 29, 2021
Defensively is where the Rebels could stand to see an improvement. They’ve allowed an average of 21 points per outing, but have yet to face even a top-30 ranked offense.
The Verdict
Young versus Corral isn’t the only narrative worth paying attention to in this game. Saban will go against Kiffin, his former offensive co-ordinator, for the third time since Kiffin departed. Alabama won each of the first two meetings, while Saban is 23-0 all-time against his former assistants.
Since 2008, the Tide are 84-5 at home, but three of those five losses came against quarterbacks who won the Heisman Trophy that season. Corral will try to join that exclusive list on Saturday, but the game isn’t likely to be as high scoring as the total suggests.
The Week 5 AP Poll is here 🚨🏈
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
8. Arkansas
10. Florida
12. Ole Miss
15. Texas A&M
22. Auburn— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 26, 2021
Eight of the 12 Ole Miss games during Lane Kiffin’s tenure have come in under the number, including their only meeting with a top-70 program this season. Alabama on the other hand, has produced just six games with a total of at least 80 over the past five seasons.
Pick: First Half Under 41.5 (-125)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
