Penn State vs Wisconsin Odds, Spread and Picks
- No. 12 Wisconsin and No. 19 Penn State open the season with a Big Ten game in Madison at noon ET Saturday on FOX
- Penn State has won the last four meetings, including a 38-31 win in the 2016 Big Ten title game in Indianapolis
- See the game odds, analysis and best way to wager below
No. 12 Wisconsin will play host to No. 19 Penn State in the Big Ten season opener for both Saturday at noon ET on FOX. The teams, which play in different Big Ten divisions, have not met in Madison since the Nittany Lions’ 31-24 victory in 2013.
Penn State has won the last four meetings and six of the last seven. The Badgers’ only victory in that stretch was 45-7 in 2011, when Montee Ball rushed for 156 yards and four touchdowns and graduate transfer quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 186 yards and two touchdowns.
Penn State vs Wisconsin Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State Nittany Lions | +184 | +5.5 (-110) | 49.5 (Over -114) |
| Wisconsin Badgers | -230 | -5.5 (-110) | 49.5 (Under -106) |
*Odds from FanDuel on Sept. 1
Both teams are seeking redemption after the disjointed 2020 season. Wisconsin won its opener before COVID-19 issues forced cancellation of its next two games. After another victory, the Badgers lost three in a row and were held under 10 points in all three, the first time that had happened in 30 years.
Penn State (4-5) played in streaks, losing its first five games before winning its last four. Nebraska and Maryland were among the early losses, and all four victories came against teams with a losing record.
Quarterbacks In Play
Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford regressed last season, his second as a starter, when he threw for 1,883 yards in nine games with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Eight of those interceptions came in the first five games.
Clifford will be working under a new offensive coordinator for third straight year after head coach James Franklin hired Mike Yurcich in an attempt to find more explosive plays. Yurcich was Tom Herman’s offensive coordinator at Texas last season and was the passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Ohio State 2019 season.
Wisconsin sophomore Graham Mertz took over when starter Jack Coan was injured last season was 20-of-21 with 248 yards and five touchdowns in his 2020 debut in a season-opening rout of Illinois. Mertz tested positive for COVID-19 the next day, however, and never equaled that output.
Mertz finished with 1,238 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Wisconsin had its lowest average offensive output since 2004 a year ago, averaging 345.6 yards and 25.1 points per game.
Newcomers to Watch
Clemson transfer running back Chez Mellusi, a third-year sophomore, was listed as the starter on Wisconsin’s opening depth chart, ahead of returnee Jalen Berger. Mellusi rushed for 427 yards and six touchdowns on 76 carries the two seasons as a reserve with the Tigers. Berger had 301 yards rushing as a true freshman.
Penn State added fifth-year halfback John Lovett, who led Baylor in rushing in 2017-19 and had 1,803 yards and 17 touchdowns in four seasons with the Bears while averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
True freshman Keyvone Lee came on strong with games of 135, 95 and 94 yards rushing during the Nittany Lions’ winning streak and finished with a team-high 438 yards and a 4.9-yard average.
"I think there will be some brats and beers and I think there will be some boos," James Franklin said Penn State's upcoming visit to Wisconsin. "But I also think there's going to be a bunch of cheers, because people have missed college football."https://t.co/KwxHrH86JP
— Mark Wogenrich (@MarkWogenrich) August 31, 2021
By the Numbers
Wisconsin was 3-4 ATS last season, 1-2 at home, where they were never less than a 10-point favorite. The Badgers have been favored by a seven points or less at home only twice in the last four seasons, and they covered both, victories over Michigan in 2017 and 2019.
Penn State covered the spread in the four games it won last season and failed to cover in the five games it lost. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 as a road dog the last four seasons, twice covering at Ohio State. They covered the 7.5-point line in a 22-10 home victory over Wisconsin in their last meeting in 2018.
The Badgers led the Big Ten in total defense (299.9 yards per game) and rushing defense (96.1) in 2020, fifth in the FB in both categories. They were ninth in the FBS n scoring defense at 17.4 points per game.
- The Pick: Wisconsin -5.5 (-110)
Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
