UCF vs Tulane Odds and Picks – Prediction for AAC Championship Game
- Tulane and UCF meet for the AAC championship and a New Year’s Six bowl berth
- No. 18 Tulane is a 3.5-point favorite over UCF in a game played in New Orleans
- Read below for UCF vs Tulane odds, preview and prediction
No. 18 Tulane (10-2, 8-1) is a 3.5-point home favorite over UCF in the American Athletic Conference championship game Saturday at 4 pm ET at the Green Wave’s Yulman Stadium. The winner is in line to receive the Group of Five’s automatic berth to a New Year’s Six bowl, almost certainly the Cotton Bowl.
No. 22 UCF (9-3, 6-2) won the first meeting between the two 38-31 at the same venue on Nov. 12 but lost to Navy the following week. It needed a comeback 46-39 victory over South Florida in the regular-season finale the last time out to make the title game, winning a tiebreaker over Cincinnati to quality.
UCF vs Tulane Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCF Knights | +3.5 (-105) | +155 | Over 56.5 (-115) |
| Tulane Green Wave | -3.5 (-115) | -188 | Under 56.5 (-115) |
Odds from FanDuel on Nov. 30. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.
Tulane is a 3.5-point home favorite over visiting UCF in the AAC championship game played on its campus site in New Orleans. The Green Wave closed as a 1-point home favorite in the first meeting between the two, a 38-31 UCF victory on Nov. 12 that was not that close.
Tulane is 10-2 ATS this season, tied with Oregon State for the best spread record in Division I. The Green Wave is 5-2 ATS at home, also failing to cover in a loss to Southern Miss in its last nonconference game. The total has gone over in five of Tulane’s last six games. UCF is 7-5 ATS, 3-2 ATS on the road. The total has gone over in three of the Knights’ last four games.
UCF: QB or Not QB?
The Knights won the first meeting against Tulane with a strong ground attack that featured the return of quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, who rushed for 176 yards and two touchdowns in 18 carries. Plumlee’s status for that game was uncertain because he suffered an apparent head injury early in a 25-21 victory over Cincinnati on Oct. 29 and missed the 35-28 victory over Memphis the following week. Quarterback questions remain for UCF as it returns to New Orleans.
OH MY GOD UCF!!!! TO GO TO THE AAC CHAMPIONSHIP!!! https://t.co/p6YO5vb6Yp
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 27, 2022
Plumlee, more a runner than a passer in a Gus Malzahn offense that prizes both, was replaced by Mikey Keene at halftime of the 17-14 loss to Navy because of what Malzahn called shoulder soreness. Both quarterbacks played in the 46-39 victory over South Florida the last time out. Plumlee accounted for three touchdowns, two rushing, when the Knights rolled to a 28-7 halftime lead, but he departed with a hamstring injury. Keene entered and played the hero, throwing two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.
Keene engineered a game-winning 82-yard drive in the final three minutes, throwing a go-ahead 12-yard touchdown pass with 20 seconds remaining to overcome a 39-38 deficit. Plumlee is a valuable weapon — he has rushed for 848 yards and 11 touchdowns, and has five 100-yard games this season. He passed for 132 yards and a touchdown in the earlier victory over the Green Wave and has thrown for 2,195 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Tulane Looks to Settle the Score
Tulane won the regular-season title with a comeback 27-24 victory over Cincinnati last week, which paved the way for UCF also to advance. Michael Pratt’s touchdown pass with five minutes remaining was the difference, and running back Tyjae Spears added 181 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Spears, who rushed for 1,177 yards and 14 touchdowns and also had 20 receptions and two scores, was named the AAC offensive player of the year in a vote of the league coaches.
Tyjae Spears making them miss!😤#AmericanFB x @GreenWaveFB pic.twitter.com/NL06G39xik
— American Football (@American_FB) November 25, 2022
Spears has rushed for 100 yards in each of the last six games as Tulane has relied more and more on its ground game. The Green Wave are averaging 244 yards rushing over the last six games. Spears had 130 yards on eight carries in the first game with UCF, when the Green Wave played catch-up the entire game and Pratt threw a season-high 39 passes, for 236 yards and three touchdowns.
UCF vs Tulane Prediction
Plumlee and UCF ran through Tulane the first time, and Plumlee’s availability must be monitored here. The teams have put up virtually identical offensive and defensive numbers in AAC games. South Florida rushed for 298 yards against UCF last week, a number that bodes well for the more run-reliant Green Wave.
It is hard to pass up the points in a game between two relative equals, but Tulane is the play here as it celebrates coach Willie Fritz’s decision to spurn Georgia Tech and stay on the bayou.
- Pick: Tulane -3.5 (-105)
- Season CFB: 42-43 ATS
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Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
