Chiefs Leap Chargers as AFC West Favorites, while Broncos Pass Raiders

• Just one week into the 2018 season, the odds to win the hypercompetitive AFC West have changed drastically. 
• The Chiefs are the new favorites after an impressive 38-28 win over the early frontrunners, the Chargers. 
• The Raiders are now last after a Monday-night dud, while the Broncos look like contenders thanks to a relentless pass rush.

Back in the offseason, the LA Chargers were the early favorites to win the AFC West title, followed by the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos. The landscape is much different after Week 1, when the Chiefs laid a beating on the Chargers in Los Angeles.

The table below shows the old and new odds to win the West, along with each team’s 2017 record and 2018 strength of schedule.

Odds to Win the AFC West

Do the Chiefs deserve to be AFC West favorites?

Usually it’s a mistake to drastically shift your prognostications after just one week of football, especially the first week of the season when anomalies are the norm.

There’s a cogent argument that the change in the odds is an overreaction. The Chiefs looked dynamic on offense, racking up five touchdowns, but one of those was a punt-return TD from Tyreek Hill, which you can’t count on week to week, as explosive as he is.

The run game didn’t look great either, averaging under 4.0 yards per carry.

The defense, meanwhile, gave up over 500 yards of total offense, and it would have been more if the Charger receivers could hang onto the ball.

— Johnny Kinsley (@Brickwallblitz) September 11, 2018

This KC team is hugely flawed on D and will be required to win shootouts on a regular basis.

The argument in favor of the Chiefs begins with first-year starter Patrick Mahomes, who showed the ability to do exactly that. The Texas Tech product threw for 256 yards, 4 TDs, and no INTs against a solid LA defense. While his floor isn’t as high as Alex Smith’s, his ceiling is in the thermosphere.

The Chiefs already own a crucial road win over their closest competition, as well, and in a 16-game season, that’s a significant head-start.

Unfortunately, there are a boatload more factors working against KC that I’ve yet to mention, and when you add it all up, the result is that there’s not much value on betting the Chiefs at a short +150, which carries a 40% implied probability.

1. Head coach Andy Reid is notoriously good when he has extra time to prepare, as he does in Week 1 and after the bye. KC won’t have that advantage in 14 of their next 15 games.
2. The Chiefs won the turnover battle 2-0 in Week 1. Mahomes has a reputation as a gunslinger, and for good reason, throwing 25 INTs in his last two seasons at Texas Tech. It’s pretty likely that KC finishes the year around +/- 0 in the turnover department.
3. KC has a much tougher schedule than the Chargers based on the projected 2018 win totals of their respective opponents. LA’s is the third-easiest in the entire league, while the Chiefs’ is among the top-10 toughest.
4. Mahomes had the good fortune of facing a Charger defense sans Joey Bosa.

While it looks safe to write off the Raiders after Week 1, that’s not the case for either the Chargers or the Broncos. The Chargers, who started 0-4 last year before turning it on and finishing 9-7, have all the pieces to make another run, and should get Bosa back around Week 3.

The Broncos, meanwhile, posted an impressive 27-24 win over a game Seattle team in Week 1. Case Keenum is a huge upgrade over their 2017 QB situation and, with Bradley Chubb joining Von Miller on the line, their pass rush might be the best in the entire league. When KC and Denver play head to head, Mahomes is going to find life a lot more difficult than he did on Sunday.