How Should You Approach Betting an AFC Champion If You’re Interested In Doing So?
- The AFC playoff picture has shifted based on the Bills-Bengals cancelled Week 17 game
- Cincinnati is now the AFC North champ, while the conference championship game could be decided on a neutral field
- See the latest changes to the AFC playoff picture here, plus how sportsbooks are reacting
The news of Damar Hamlin’s incredible recovery sent the NFL into scramble mode over the past 24 hours as the league raced to determine how to adjust the AFC playoff picture.
The Bills-Bengals Week 17 matchup, in which Hamlin was gravely injured, was deemed a no contest, but the NFL still had to determine how it would proceed with seeding the AFC given two of the top contenders will play one fewer game.
A proposal was put in front of all 32 owners on Friday, and a unanimous decision was reached. We’ll outline the changes below, as well as how those changes affect AFC futures in the betting market.
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The New Look AFC Playoff Picture
For starters, the Bengals have been crowned AFC North champs. Cincinnati needed one win over the final two weeks to secure the division title, but have now been awarded the crown regardless of their Week 18 meeting with the Ravens.
But there’s a catch. If Cincinnati loses to Baltimore on Sunday they’ll both finish with 11 wins. Under that scenario, if the two teams were scheduled to meet in the Wild Card Round a coin flip would determine home field advantage.
The Bengals are out of the running for the AFC’s top seed, but they could still be a factor in where the AFC Championship game is played. Needless to say, they’re not pleased with the league’s decision.
From NFL Now: The changes to the playoffs involving seeding and a potential neutral site AFC Title Game has passed. Not everyone is thrilled. pic.twitter.com/oDKgLGO3oM
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 6, 2023
Speaking of the AFC’s number one seed, it will be settled based on the following criteria. Should the Chiefs beat the Raiders on Saturday they’ll get the top seed and home-field advantage. If the Chiefs lose, the Bills can claim top spot by defeating the Patriots on Sunday. Should both lose, then KC will still get the one seed.
If both Kansas City and Buffalo win or tie in Week 18, any AFC Championship Game between the two titans would be played at a neutral site that’s yet to be determined.
But wait, there’s more. If both the Chiefs and Bills lose this weekend and the Bengals win, any AFC title matchup involving two of those three teams would also be played on a neutral field.
How Online Sportsbooks are Responding
Nowadays, it seems like online sportsbooks are issuing refunds left, right and center over bad beats.
Given the fight for customer acquisition and retention, you have to think online sportsbooks will refund Ravens AFC North futures, or potentially even pay them out if Baltimore wins in Week 18. As of Friday afternoon however, it doesn’t appear like any online sportsbook has announced a decision yet.
One question the NFL and the competition committee had to ask as it navigated an unprecedented situation is, how important really is home-field advantage? Answer: Not important enough to rearrange the entire playoff schedule for one game. @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/jGcmI4UV2i
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 6, 2023
As for the AFC Championship futures market, it’s business as usual. All futures bets made prior to today remain active, and the updated odds have been released. KC is now leading the way at +175. That’s only slightly better than Buffalo’s +200 price tag, which oddsmakers are still incredibly bullish on.
The Chiefs are also now the leading contender in the Super Bowl 57 odds at +370, after beginning the day tied atop the board with Buffalo.
AFC Championship Best Bets
If there’s one team that should be upset by Friday’s ruling it’s Cincinnati. Prior to Week 17, they had an excellent chance to capture the AFC’s two seed, with an outside shot of finishing first. Now, that appears to have been taken from them as both Kansas City and Buffalo should easily take care of business this weekend as heavy favorites.
That is going to put a massive chip on the Bengals shoulder. They were already a fantastic bet to win the AFC, and this is just one more reason to like them.
Cincinnati already beat the Chiefs this season, after beating them twice last season including in the playoffs. Nobody knows how last Monday’s game versus Buffalo would have turned out, but no team is hotter than the Bengals in the conference at the moment.
NFL Offensive EPA Per Play Leaders – Since Week 9
| Rank | Team | EPA/Play |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.142 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 0.135 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.132 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 0.131 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.114 |
They’ve won seven straight and since Week 9, lead the NFL in expected points added per play on offense, and offensive success rate. Cincy is peaking at the right time and is a clear value to make it back to the Super Bowl at +420.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
