Buccaneers vs Falcons: Monday Night Football Full Betting Preview

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Week 15’s Monday Night Football matchup (December 18th) sees the Atlanta Falcons head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. This will be the second time these teams have met in the last four weeks. From kickoff (8:30 PM EST) until the final whistle, the weather is expected to be partly cloudy with the temperature sticking around 68° Fahrenheit. Here is your full betting preview, including expert advice on betting the moneyline, the spread, the game total, and a few favorable props.

Team Injury Reports

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

ATLANTA FALCONS

Buccaneers vs Falcons Team Stats

BUCCANEERS vs FALCONS

BUCCANEERS OFFENSE vs FALCONS DEFENSE

FALCONS OFFENSE vs BUCCANEERS DEFENSE

Buccaneers vs Falcons Game Preview

When these two teams met in Atlanta in Week 12, Julio Jones lifted the Falcons to a 34-20 victory with a monumental 253 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Atlanta dominated from start to finish, out-gaining the Bucs 516 to 373 in the yardage department. This time, the Falcons will be outside of their comfort zone, make that “comfort dome,” and will have to deal with Jameis Winston under center for the Buccaneers, instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Week 12 loss served as the beginning of the Buccaneers’ current three-game losing streak. After starting the season 2-1, Tampa has now lost eight of its last ten. At 4-9, the Bucs are looking at a top-ten pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. But draft position is not going to be one of the team’s priorities on Monday night. Putting Atlanta’s playoff hopes in jeopardy will be.

The Buccaneers’ defense is largely to blame for their disappointing season. Only one team has allowed more yards this season and the Bucs rank 23rd in points allowed. The pass rush has been virtually non-existent, entering the game with a league-low 17 sacks. Pivots have had all day to throw the ball, and the result has been routing dismantlings of the Tampa secondary, which ranks 32nd against the pass.

You can’t pin all the blame on the defense. Jameis Winston continues to frustrate everyone within a 200 mile radius of Raymond James Stadium, interspersing bone-headed decisions with flashes of brilliance. If you’re being nice, you’d describe his season as “inconsistent.” If you’re not, you’d describe it using words not fit for this website.

Winston’s struggles (and injuries) have impacted the production of what looked like an unparalleled receiving corps heading into the season. Mike Evans and Desean Jackson are both averaging career-lows in receiving yards per game (63.3 and 50.5, respectively), and the ground game hasn’t been any better, largely because the Bucs continue to give the ball to Doug Martin, in spite of his pitiful 3.1 yards per carry average. It has been a disappointing season on all fronts for a unit that was projected to be one of the most explosive in the league.

Underachieving is something Atlanta’s offense has grown familiar with this season. After leading the league in points last year (540, tied for seventh-most all-time in a single season), the Falcon offense is certainly feeling the departure of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Under Steve Sarkisian, the unit ranks 15th in points scored and ninth in total offense. Matt Ryan has struggled to get the ball to Julio Jones, outside of the Week 12 game against Tampa, and the 6’3 receiver has seen his stats drop commensurately, averaging just 89.3 receiving yards per game this season compared to 109.1 over the last four years.

Fortunately for the Falcons, their defense has picked up the slack, ranking in the top ten in both yards and points allowed. They have a handful of players effective pass rushers, including four players with at least four sacks on the year. If there’s one thing head coach Dan Quinn would like his defense to improve upon, it’s generating takeaways. Atlanta has only forced 11 turnovers this season, which ranks 29th in the NFL. A date with the Buccaneers, who have committed 20 turnovers this season (23rd), could be the perfect remedy.

With the Lions, Seahawks, and Cowboys all sitting on eight wins, taking advantage of a soft matchup with the Buccaneers is crucial for the Falcons’ playoff hopes.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Betting Opportunities

Betting the Buccaneers vs Falcons Moneyline

BEST BUCCANEERS MONEYLINE: +250

BEST FALCONS MONEYLINE: -200 

BUCCANEERS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• TB has lost three straight games
• TB is 3-3 SU at home this season
• TB is 0-5 SU as an underdog this season
• TB is 0-1 SU as a home underdog this season
• TB is 0-3 SU vs the NFC South this season

FALCONS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• ATL has won four of its last five games
• ATL is 4-2 SU on the road this season
• ATL is 8-4 SU as a favorite this season
• ATL is 4-1 SU as a road favorite this season
• ATL is 2-1 SU vs the NFC South this season

HEAD-TO-HEAD STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• ATL has won the last two meetings
• ATL is 5-3 SU in the last eight games in Tampa Bay
• In two of the last three years, one team has swept the season series.

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: FALCONS (-200)

With the game outdoors, it’s reasonable to assume Atlanta’s offense will not be operating at full speed. Full speed would be overkill against this Buccaneers defense, though. As long as the Falcons make a habit of targeting Julio Jones, he will have another big game. If Tampa Bay makes the necessary adjustments to slow Jones, it will result in a lot of room for Devonta Freeman carrying the ball.

Betting the Buccaneers vs Falcons Against the Spread

BEST BUCCANEERS SPREAD: +6.5 (-105)

BEST FALCONS SPREAD: -6.5 (-110)

BUCCANEERS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS

• TB is 3-9-1 ATS this season
• TB has lost three straight ATS
• TB is 2-4 ATS at home this season
• TB is 0-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season
• TB is 0-3 ATS vs the NFC South this season

FALCONS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS

• ATL is 6-7 ATS this season
• ATL is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
• ATL is 2-4 ATS on the road this season
• ATL is 6-6 ATS as a favorite this season
• ATL is 2-1 ATS vs the NFC South this season

HEAD-TO-HEAD AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS

• TB is 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings
• ATL is 4-3 ATS in the last seven meetings in Tampa Bay
• Since 2010, ATL is 4-1 ATS as a six-point favorite
• Since 2010, ATL is 3-1 ATS as a favorite in Tampa Bay
• The winning team has also covered the spread in each of the last ten meetings

EXPERT AGAINST-THE-SPREAD ADVICE: FALCONS -7 (EVEN)

The Falcon offense has actually averaged more points per game on the road this season (22.7) than at home (22.6). They scored 34 in their Week 12 tilt with Tampa Bay, and this time, the Bucs won’t have the services of Gerald McCoy or Lavonte David (and will still be without Vernon Hargreaves). Atlanta should have no issue scoring points on Monday night, and I’m not prepared to put my faith in Jameis Winston keeping up.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Totals Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 48.5 (-110)

BEST UNDER ODDS: 48.5 (-110)

BUCCANEERS TOTALS TRENDS

• OVER is 3-1 in TB’s last four games
• OVER is 7-6 in TB games this season
• UNDER is 5-1 when TB plays at home this season
• OVER is 3-2 when TB is an underdog this season
• UNDER is 2-1 when TB plays against the NFC South

FALCONS TOTALS TRENDS

• UNDER is 4-2 in ATL’s last six games
• UNDER is 8-5 in ATL games this season
• OVER is 3-3 in ATL road games this season
• UNDER is 7-5 when ATL is favorite this season
• UNDER is 2-1 when ATL plays against the NFC South

HEAD-TO-HEAD TOTALS TRENDS

• OVER is 3-0 in their last three meetings, and 6-3 in their last nine
• UNDER is 4-3 in the last seven meetings in TB
• OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in which ATL is favorite

EXPERT TOTALS ADVICE: OVER 48.5 (-110)

Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter knows his job is on the line these last three weeks of the season. The Tampa brass needs to be convinced that Koetter can develop Jameis Winston into the franchise QB he was expected to be. So you can expect to see the second-year head coach cut his quarterback loose a little, especially with Tampa likely needing to score early and often in this one. The result will be fewer wasted handoffs to Doug Martin, and more downfield targets for big-bodied Mike Evans. I expect the Pro Bowl receiver to take advantage of those added targets, helping this game hit the OVER.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Prop Betting

This is not the only prop bet available, rather the one that grabbed our attention.

FIRST SCORING PLAY: FALCONS TD RUN (+500)

Although it is the most probable, there’s such little value in betting a Falcons touchdown pass at +200, and an Atlanta field goal only pays out at +240. Without Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David in the lineup, the Buccaneers are going to have an awfully difficult time stopping Atlanta on the ground, especially when they get to the red zone and they have to pay extra attention to Julio Jones. A Falcon touchdown run provides great value here.