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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs – Odds, Lines, Spread, and Picks NFL Week 6

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Oct 15, 2022 · 10:00 AM PDT

Josh Allen leaps over fallen players
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen hurdles over players in the AFC Divisional Round against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Jan. 24, 2022.
  • Buffalo is favored by 2.5-points on the road in Week 6 in the Bills vs Chiefs odds on Sunday (Oct. 16) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • The Chiefs and Bills rank first and second respectively in points per game
  • Below you’ll find the complete Bills vs Chiefs odds, plus analysis and our best bet for this mega-showdown

Week 6 on the NFL calendar brings us the game of the year. The AFC East-leading Bills (4-1, 2-1 away) visit the AFC West-leading Chiefs (4-1, 2-0 home) in a matchup last year’s thrilling AFC Divisional Round tilt.

That contest was a wild, back-and-forth affair, that produced 78 points, multiple lead changes over the final two minutes, and an epic game-tying drive with 13 seconds remaining.

Kansas City ultimately prevailed, but oddsmakers are expecting Buffalo to exact some revenge in the Week 6 NFL odds.

Bills vs Chiefs Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-110) -140 O 54 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (-110) +120 U 54 (-110)

Odds as of October 15 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.

The Bills are currently 2.5-point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 54. The game opened up as a pick’em, but early Buffalo money quickly moved the line to Bills -3. It’s since come down half a point towards the Chiefs, but Buffalo continues to pace the betting action.

52% of the spread wagers are on the Bills, with those tickets making up 62% of the ATS handle. Kickoff for this mega-tilt is scheduled for 4:25pm ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, with clear skies and 68-degree game-time temperatures in the forecast.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Sunday will mark the first time Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog in the NFL. KC is 6-0-1 against the spread in the Mahomes era as a ‘dog, winning five of those games outright.

If Mahomes misses Tyreek Hill he certainly isn’t playing like it. He enters the week leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 15, while ranking second in QBR. He’s fresh off a 4 TD, 292-yard performance against the Raiders, while the Chiefs lead the league in scoring and rank third on offense per DVOA.

It’s no surprise, he’s a top-two contender in the NFL MVP odds, and he’s posted good numbers against the Bills in the past. He’s 3-1 versus Buffalo including the playoffs, throwing for 1,100 yards and 10 TD.

Expect Mahomes to take to the air early and often on Sunday, which will mean another big workload for Travis Kelce. The Chiefs star hauled in all four of Mahomes’ touchdown throws last week, and now has 7 TD on the season, the most by any tight end through five weeks.

Defensively, KC started off hot but have come crashing back down to earth. They’ve yielded 60 points over the last two weeks to the Raiders and Buccaneers, two offenses that are nowhere near as explosive as Buffalo’s.

They rank 18th against the pass and eighth versus the run per DVOA, but both areas of the unit played poorly versus the Raiders. Josh Jacobs ran all over them to the tune of 154 yards, while the team yielded 124 receiving yards and 2 TD to Davante Adams.

Buffalo embarrassed the Chiefs defense on multiple occasions in 2021, and we should expect another efficient performance from Josh Allen and Co.

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Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Allen threw for 645 yards versus KC, with 7 TD and no INT last season. He also rushed for 127 yards and a score leading the Bills to 38 and 36 points in their two meetings.

So far this season, Allen has been sensational. He’s thrown for 297 yards or more in four of five games, reaching 400 yards twice. His 14 touchdowns through the air are second only to Mahomes, while he leads the league with 1,651 passing yards.

Allen will lean heavily on Stefon Diggs, as he has all season, with Diggs entering play averaging over 100 receiving yards per game. Gabe Davis finally had a breakout performance in Week 5 catching a pair of touchdowns, and who can forget the 4 TD game he dropped on the Chiefs during last year’s postseason.

We should expect the Bills to move up and down the field at will on Sunday, and their defense just might be good enough to slow down Mahomes. The Bills rank second on defense per DVOA, and have held all five opponents to 20 points or less.

Buffalo is missing a pair of key pieces in their secondary in Tre-Davious White and Micah Hyde, but they still grade out as the league’s fifth best coverage unit per Pro Football Focus.

Bills vs Chiefs Prediction

Everyone and their mother is going to bet over 54 in this matchup. It’s hard to argue with that sentiment, but we should feel more confident about Buffalo eclipsing their team total than Kansas City.

The Bills hung 31 points on the Rams, 41 points on the Titans and 38 points on the Steelers. They lead the NFL in net points and total yards per drive, while ranking fifth in pace. They’re efficient, they’re fast and they can score on anyone.

The Chiefs defense on the other hand has sprung major leaks over the past two contests, and failed to prove they could stop Allen and Co. last season. Also working against KC is the fact that they’re starting two rookie corners.

Buffalo is the leading contender in the Super Bowl odds because of their offense, a fact that will be amplified in Week 6.

Pick: Buffalo Bills Over 28.5 Points (-105)

2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 4-2, +1.52 units

 

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