Chiefs Favored by 2.5 Points vs Bills in AFC Championship Opening Odds
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 2.5-point home favorites over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game
- Saturday/Sunday betting record: 11-8; +1.95 units
- Kansas City beat the Bills 26-17 in a Week 6 regular-season matchup in Buffalo
The betting line on this year’s AFC Championship Game is going to be entirely predicated by how long Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes spends in the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Mahomes left Sunday’s 22-17 victory by the Chiefs over the Cleveland Browns in the NFL Division Round playoffs midway through the third quarter. He was slammed to the ground while running a third-down speed option keeper.
An announcement was made later that Mahomes was being downgraded to out after being evaluated for a concussion.
Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City opened the 1-point home favorite over the Bills. However, that line jumped to Kansas City by 2.5-points within a matter of minutes.
Even with Mahomes, the Chiefs are just 3-6 against the spread as a home favorite this season.
Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Game Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +124 | +2.5 (-110) | O 50.5 (-115) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -146 | -2.5 (-110) | U 50.5 (-105) |
Odds taken Jan. 17th at DraftKings.
Kickoff for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game is set for 6:40pm ET at Arrowhead Stadium. The weather forecast is calling for rain, 4 mph wind and a temperature of 43 degrees.
A Different Team Minus Mahomes
At the time of his game-ending injury, Mahomes had completed 21-of-30 passes for 255 yards and a touchdown. He also added three runs for 14 yards and a TD.
After Henne took over, the Chiefs could only muster up a field goal the rest of the game. He was 6-of-8 through the air for 66 yards. Henne threw an interception in the Cleveland end zone.
Patrick Mahomes is headed to the locker room after taking this hit.
(via @NFLBrasil)pic.twitter.com/erfqc4iuvD
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 17, 2021
With Henne in charge, KC managed six first downs and total offense of 117 yards.
Starting Henne in the final game of the regular season, the Chiefs ended up losing 38-21 to the Los Angeles Chargers. Last season saw Kansas City posting a 1-1 slate with Matt Moore starting in place of an injured Mahomes.
Chiefs Won In Buffalo
The Bills and Chiefs clashed in Buffalo during Week 6 of the regular season. Kansas City won 26-17 to improve to 5-1, while dropping the Bills to 4-2.
Mahomes was 21-of-26 for 225 yards and two TDs. After squandering an early 3-0 advantage, the Bills never again held the lead.
Cole Beasley reaching for that TD 💯 @Bease11 @BuffaloBills
📺 #KCvsBUF on FOX pic.twitter.com/YbMrwui1uc
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) October 19, 2020
Yardage-wise, Buffalo QB Josh Allen endured his worst game of the season, passing for just 122 yards. He did throw TD passes to Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley.
Injury Report
Along with Mahomes, Chiefs cornerback Baushaud Breeland also left Sunday’s game against the Browns after entering concussion protocol.
Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) is listed as questionable.
Andy Reid says Patrick Mahomes got hit in the back of the head and got the wind knocked out of him. Says he feels great. Never actually uses the word "concussion."
Same with Bashaud Breeland, still being evaluated.
— Matt Derrick (@mattderrick) January 17, 2021
The current status of wide receiver Sammy Watkins (calf) and weakside linebacker Willie Gay (ankle) is out.
Bills running back Zack Moss is out for the rest of the playoffs due to an akle injury.
Trendspotting
The betting odds favor a Super Bowl 1 rematch between the Chiefs and Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 55. Interestingly, the Chiefs got to the first Super Bowl game by whipping the two-time AFL champion Bills 31-7 in the AFL title game.
It’s becoming a yearly tradition.
Get well quick, @PatrickMahomes! #RunItBack | #WreckEm pic.twitter.com/RuRgGA8FHy
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) January 17, 2021
It’s not complicated, really. If Mahomes plays, the line should lengthen further in Kansas City’s favor. Expect it to grow at minimum to Chiefs -3.5.
However, should it end up turning out that Henne is under center for Kansas City, expect mountains of money to be wagered on the Bills. If Henne is the man for KC, then Buffalo figures to take the field Sunday as the betting choice.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
