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Conference Championship Betting Line Movement, Updated AFC and NFC Championship Odds

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Jan 27, 2022 · 9:58 AM PST

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, left, passes against Los Angeles Rams outside linebacker Von Miller during an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Monday, Nov. 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
  • It’s down to NFL Confererence Championship time and line movement at this stage of the season is minimal
  • The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point home favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, January 30
  • In Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs are a 7-point pick as they seek to reach a third successive Super Bowl

There’s a familiar feel to both of Sunday’s AFC and NFC conference championship games. The Kansas City Chiefs are in the AFC title game for the fourth year in a row.

KC is seeking to reach a third straight Super Bowl game. It could even end up being a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl between the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. On the other hand, if the Cincinnati Bengals upset Kansas City, there’s the potential for a third 49ers-Bengals Super Bowl, which would tie Dallas-Pittsburgh for the most Super Bowl matchups.

There’s lots of familiarity in the NFC Championship Game. It’s pitting the Niners against their NFC West rivals the Los Angeles Rams for the third time this season. In 1989-90, San Fran beat the Rams 30-3 in the NFC title game. The Rams played in the Super Bowl as recently as 2019.

NFL Conference Championship Odds

Matchup Opening Spread Current Spread Opening Total Current Total
Bengals vs Chiefs KC -6.5 KC -7 53.5 54.5
49ers vs Rams LAR -3.5 LAR -3.5 46.5 45.5

Odds as of January 27th at FanDuel

Which games are looking to be the biggest movers and shakers in NFL Conference Championship line movement? Let’s check that out. First, though, here’s how the NFL odds are moving for each NFL Conference Championship game.

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Chiefs Heavy Favorites to Three-peat

Not surprisngly, the biggest spread of conference championship weekend is being handed to the team that’s played in the last two Super Bowls. The Kansas City Chiefs are a 7-point home favorite over the Cincinnati Bengals.

The upstart Bengals have won two playoff games in a row after going without a postseason win since 1990. Cincinnati hasn’t played in a Super Bowl since 1989. However, the Bengals have gone to the Super Bowl in every season in which they’ve won two playoff games.

Kansas City has won 10 of the past 11 games. But that one loss was to the Bengals. Two years ago in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs covered at home as a 7-point pick over the Tennessee Titans. They were 35-24 winners.

Favorites are just 10-9 against the spread when favored by seven or more points in an AFC title game. However, the underdog has won outright just once in those games. That was in 2012-13, when the New England Patriots lost 28-13 to the Baltimore Ravens as the 8-point home chalk.

There’s 3.5 Reasons to Bet 49ers

The Rams-49ers are assigned the smaller spread on Conference Championship Sunday. LA is a 3.5-point pick, which is great news for the Niners.

Maybe you are a believer in omens. Perhaps you’re convinced that three times is a charm.

Whatever the case, there’s ample evidence suggesting that you should be all over the 49ers at +3.5 against the Rams. San Francisco is 2-0 both straight up and ATS this season against the Rams this season and there’s a definite pattern to these 49ers victories.

On November 15, the 49ers played host to the Rams and won outright 31-10 as 3.5-point underdogs. Then in the final week of the regular season, San Fran traveled to LA requiring a win to secure a playoff spot. The Niners beat the Rams 27-24 as 3.5-point road underdogs.

There’s also the fact that 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garappolo is 6-0 lifetime against the Rams. Then again, you could buy into the third-time lucky theory and go with the Rams.

Limited Spread Movement

The Rams-49ers opened at LA -3.5 and remains at Rams -3.5. Kansas City was a 6.5-point choice over Cincinnati when betting lines were first listed.

That’s increased to Chiefs -7. This half-point movement was enough claim the title of biggest spread move of the week.

It’s a sign of just how good the teams are when it gets to this stage of the NFL season. There’s little to choose between the squads in terms of quality.

Even though Cincinnati beat Kansas City 34-31 in the second-last week of the NFL regular season, oddsmakers aren’t putting much stock in that outcome. KC had clinched the AFC West title before playing that game.

Little Math to Do

Those who aren’t good at math will be enjoying the total movement taking place during the two Conference Championship games. Each line has shifted by exactly one point.

The over/under on the Chiefs-Bengals game grew from 53.5 to 54.5 points. KC and Cinci hit the over on a 51-point total in their Week 17 meeting.

In the case of the Rams vs 49ers, the total shortened from 46.5 to 45.5 points. Interestingly, in their Week 18 matchup, the total was 46.5. San Fran and LA hit the over in the Niners’ 27-24 victory.

Life Begins After 50 for KC

At a total of 54.5 points for the Bengals-Chiefs game, it’s the 14th time this season a KC game is featuring a total over 50 points.

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1486685425578262530?s=20

The Chiefs are 8-5 on the over/under in those games. The total was 54 in last week’s KC-Buffalo game as they hit the over in the Chiefs’ 42-36 overtime triumph. In each of KC’s AFC Championship Games the past three years, the total has gone over.

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NFC Title Games Go Low

When the Rams or 49ers are in the NFC Championship Game, the under seems to be the play. Three of the last five conference championship games involving the Niners have gone under. Three of the last four NFC title games featuring the Rams also hit on the under.

Perhaps it shouldn’t be shocking then that the total on this game is just 45.5 points.

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