Eagles vs Broncos Odds, Lines, Picks, and Predictions

• The Denver Broncos are 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 10 (Sunday, November 14th, 4:25 pm ET)
• Denver is fresh off back-to-back wins, while Philly has lost three of four
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Fresh off a massive road upset over the Dallas Cowboys, the Denver Broncos return home in Week 10 to host the Philadelphia Eagles.

A week after destroying the Detroit Lions, Philly came back down to earth last Sunday, falling to the visiting LA Chargers by a field goal.

Kickoff is slated for 4:25 pm ET on Sunday (Nov. 14th) at Empower Field at Mile High, with cloudy, 66 degree temperatures projected.

Eagles vs Broncos Odds

Odds as of Nov. 12th at FanDuel.

Denver opened up as a 3-point favorite, but that line has since moved ever so slightly in the Eagles’ favor. The Broncos are currently 2.5-point favorites, in a game that now features a total of 45.5.

As per our NFL public betting trends, 60% of the spread bets and 80% of the handle is currently on Philadelphia. As for the total, 96% of the handle came in on over 44, which is what prompted oddsmakers to bump up the number by 1.5-points to where it currently sits.

A Mismatch in the Trenches

Denver will enter this game shorthanded on the offensive line, which spells trouble versus one the NFL’s premier pass rushes.

The Broncos are likely going to be trotting out backups at both tackle positions, in addition to right guard, which is going to be a problem. The Eagles rank second in pass rush win rate, and 9th in adjusted sack rate.

Not practicing today:

-Garett Bolles
-Bobby Massie
-Dalton Risner – got his foot stepped on yesterday.
-Pat Surtain II

Significantly smaller list than yesterday. (Malik Reed, Albert O, Tim Patrick, Caden Sterns, Shelby Harris, McTelvin Agim all out yesterday but back today)

— Romi Bean (@Romi_Bean) November 11, 2021

Denver was already struggling to protect Teddy Bridgewater, who’s taken the third most sacks in the league (26). The Broncos o-line ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate allowed, and last in pressure percentage given up. Now, with a trio of backups in there against Fletcher Cox and Co. we can expect Bridgewater to be under duress all game long.

Only teammates with 400+ defensive snaps and 0 missed tackles this season

Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave 🦅 pic.twitter.com/t4yDJEt2iy

— PFF (@PFF) November 10, 2021

Like most QB’s, Bridgewater performs significantly worse under pressure. His completion percentage drops by 10 percent, while his average yards per attempt dips 1.4 yards.

A Pace Down Spot

Both of these teams love to play slow, in large part due to their run heavy approach. The Broncos have a bottom-10 pass rate over the pass month, while the Eagles have run on 68% and 70% of their offensive snaps over the past two weeks.

Jordan Howard 3 touchdowns in first 6 quarters he’s played this year pic.twitter.com/tp75vlPvTc

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) November 7, 2021

Denver’s offense operates at the second slowest situational neutral pace in the league, while both Broncos and Philly games tend to produce less combined plays than the NFL average. Since Week 6, Eagles’ contests are averaging the 29th most plays, while Denver outings have averaged the fourth fewest snaps during the course of the season.

Fewer snaps, equals less opportunity to produce points, which is why we should lean under in this contest.

Eagles vs Broncos Pick

Another reason to lean under is the Broncos stout pass defense when Jalen Hurts does take to the air. Denver has held seven of the last eight quarterbacks they’ve faced to a bottom-16 or lower ranking for the week, which makes Hurts a reasonable fade in fantasy and in the player props market.

Last week, they gave Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ top-three offense per DVOA fits, holding Dallas scoreless until the last four minutes. They forced two turnovers, and pulled off three 4th down stops, while controlling the ball for over two-thirds of the contest.

Dak Prescott was just 5/14 in the first half (35.7%), the worst first-half completion percentage of his career.

Cowboys trail Broncos, 16-0, at the half. pic.twitter.com/bGRB25UZDu

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 7, 2021

Seven of nine Broncos games this season have come in under the total, including three straight, and three of four in Denver. Since 2018, 64.3% of the contests at Mile High have fallen short of the total, and this game is set-up to as well.

Pick: Under 45.5 (-106)