- Bettors have a new market available to them thanks to ESPN Bet’s no-touchdown prop
- We have constructed the first no-touchdown parlay for the Bengals vs Ravens TNF matchup
- See which players we have put in the parlay to not score a touchdown tonight
Move over, NRFI! Get bent, first team to enter the redzone! You used to be cool, first touchdown scorer. There’s a new bet available, thanks to ESPN Bet, that we can all anxiously sweat out together: the no-touchdown parlay!
After ESPN launched their sportsbook on Tuesday, one of the most unique features we saw at ESPN Bet was the ability to bet a player not to score a touchdown. Every sports betting app allows you to bet players to score a touchdown, but none of the most popular ones have allowed you to bet the other side – until now with ESPN Bet!
We didn’t stop there, though, and if you are a +EV bettor, you should probably just stop here and enjoy the fact that a sportsbook is allowing you to hold them accountable on one of the most popular NFL props. You’re not going to like what’s to come. At SBD, we have gone one step further in realizing you can also parlay these no-TD scorers together for what we are labeling the no-TD parlay.
With the Bengals vs Ravens Thursday Night Football matchup being the first NFL game we will be treated to since ESPN Bet launched, here is the first ever no-touchdown parlay:
No-Touchdown Parlay Picks for Bengals vs Ravens
|Player||TDs in 2023||Last NFL TD Scored|
|Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN)||1||Oct 8, 2023|
|Chris Evans (CIN)||0||Dec 4, 2022|
|Devin Duvernay (BAL)||0||Oct 27, 2022|
|Irv Smith Jr (CIN)||1||Nov 5, 2023|
|Isaiah Likely (BAL)||0||Jan 1, 2023|
|Joe Burrow (CIN)||0||Jan 15, 2023|
|Justice Hill (BAL)||3||Oct 8, 2023|
|Nelson Agholor (BAL)||2||Oct 22, 2023|
|Patrick Ricard (BAL)||0||Nov 7, 2021|
|Trayveon Williams (CIN)||0||None|
If you want to join us in the thrill, the ten players above (ESPN Bet will only let you parlay a max of ten players) combine for +113 odds on this no-TD parlay. Before you place this bet, though, if you have not signed up to ESPN Bet yet, be sure to use our ESPN Bet promo code DIME to get $250 in bonus bets.
Where to Find No-Touchdown Props in ESPN Bet
Once you are signed up, you can find this betting market by clicking on the Bengals vs Ravens matchup in their sportsbook, and then swiping over to the right a little to find “TD scorers.” To be clear, you will not find these odds in “player props.”
You will likely have to click “See All Lines” at the bottom of the prop to make all players from our parlay visible. Just be sure you are looking at the “To Score a Touchdown” prop and not the “First Touchdown Scorer.”
Then start clicking the “No” option for the players highlighted in the table above or the graphic below and your betslip will start to fill up.
One of our favorite bets at SBD is here just in time for Thursday Night Football ‼️
Our first No Touchdown Parlay with ESPN Bet has +113 odds 💰
Are you tailing or fading? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/NM8h7McScI
— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) November 16, 2023
Once you have selected all ten – or however many from our list you want to go with, but we are doing all ten – click on your betslip and place a bet with your usual-sized unit, or however much you feel comfortable wagering.
Analyzing Bengals vs Ravens No-TD Parlay
If you care to break down the value in this bet a little, allow me. Using some of the data above on the number of touchdowns these players have scored this season, here is their basic chances to score a TD tonight simply based on TDs/games played:
- Cam Taylor-Britt: 1 TD in 9 games (11.1%)
- Chris Evans: 0 TDs in 7 games (0%)
- Devin Duvernay: 0 TDs in 10 games (0%)
- Irv Smith Jr: 1 TD in 7 games (14.3%)
- Isaiah Likely: 0 TDs in 10 games (0%)
- Joe Burrow: 0 TDs in 9 games (0%)
- Justice Hill: 3 TDs in 9 games (33.3%)
- Nelson Agholor: 2 TDs in 10 games (20%)
- Patrick Ricard: 0 TDs in 10 games (0%)
- Trayveon Williams: 0 TDs in 9 games (0%)
If you take the inverse of their percentages above, because we are betting them not to score, and multiply them all together, you get a 40.6% chance none of these players will score a touchdown tonight. Looking to our +113 odds, it appears we may not have taken a great bet.
(Once again, please shield your eyes +EV bettors. The process we are taking here is far from perfect.) However, two of Justice Hill’s touchdowns came in the same game. So, he has actually only scored a TD in two of nine games, which would bring his TD% down to 22.2% and the inverse rises to 77.8%. If we run the math again, our probability of no one scoring rises to 47.4%. Even if we stop here, our calculated probability, is greater than the implied probability from our +113 odds (46.9%). So, you could justify this bet.
I would also argue that Hill’s chances of scoring might be even lower, thanks to the rise of Keaton Mitchell. We could also look to Cam Taylor-Britt and point out that he doesn’t even play offense. He’s a corner who has one career touchdown in 19 games and it’s very rare for him to get his hands on the ball.
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On the other side, there is randomness in the NFL. Teams draw up some whacky plays in the redzone. Players make big plays! This is far from a sure bet. It’s a fun one that we can all make together.
You can also find more/other bets our experts are making for tonight’s game in these articles:
Why the No-TD Parlay Is So Thrilling
I wasn’t sure if I should explain this, but here I am. The NRFI caught on like wildfire because it served our desire for instant gratification and allowed bettors to get their fix in the dead of summer when the only sports to bet were baseball – and many younger bettors just don’t have the patience to watch a full baseball game. It was great! You could take your 15-minute break at work to go catch the first inning of a game and sprinkle a little money on no runs to be scored. Even if your bet lost, it was justified by the entertainment from the sweat.
But the NRFI is probably a little too quick.
Similarly, the first touchdown scorer prop has been a very popular one among bettors. The first touchdown scorer has enough randomness to it that bettors could get that lottery feel with the longer odds attached to most players, and it generally satisfied everyone’s need for instant gratification as well.
But the issue here is you are stuck watching for just one player among about 12-14 who could be the first TD scorer. It also always sucks when you watch the team your player is on kick the ball off first and then allow the other team to march down the field and score. You could lose your bet before your player even takes the field. Not much of a sweat, if you ask me.
The no-TD parlay is different. It is the bet that can bring you a good sweat for the entire game. No matter who has the ball, you’re not just watching for one player, but however you have loaded into your parlay. And don’t you dare forget about special teams! This is the new bet you and all your friends are going to want to ride.
*One important thing to note: if one of the players in your parlay does not suit up, ESPN Bet will void the entire parlay, not just that leg. So, make sure if you go to load up your own no-TD parlay, that you feel confident every player is going to play.
Is it a +EV bet? No. We are here for some fun. So, please ensure you exercise responsible gaming habits when placing your no-TD parlays at ESPN Bet. Stay within your limits and have some fun with it.