Josh Allen’s NFL MVP Odds Improve to +1300, Mahomes Still the Heavy Favorite – Is Bills’ QB Worth a Bet?
- Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is now the third betting choice to win the 2020 NFL MVP at +1300
- Allen threw for 375 yards and 4 TDs in Monday’s 34-24 win over San Francisco
- Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes remains the -500 odds-on favorite to be named NFL MVP
The Buffalo Bills are closing in on their first AFC East title since 1995. Could Josh Allen be the first Bills player to be named NFL MVP since Thurman Thomas in 1991?
The odds of that happening are improving but it still remains a longshot.
Allen is now the third choice in this betting market at odds of +1300. He passed for 375 yards and four touchdowns as the Bills took down the San Francisco 49ers, 34-24, on Monday.
Buffalo improved to a division-leading 9-3. The Bills are one game ahead of the Miami Dolphins.
2020 NFL MVP Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | -500 |
| Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | +500 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | +1300 |
| Russell Wilson (Seahawks) | +2000 |
| Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) | +5000 |
Odds as of Dec. 8th at DraftKings
A week ago, Allen was sitting ninth in the NFL MVP odds with an average betting line of +3400.
Allen Keys the Bills
Monday’s performance marked the sixth time this season that Allen has thrown for over 300 yards. It was the fourth game in which he has thrown for four TDs.
Buffalo is 6-0 when Allen passes for at least 300 yards. In completing 32 of 40 passes for a career-high in yardage, Allen became the first Bills quarterback to complete at least 80% of his throws and throw four TDs in a single game.
Tonight was Josh Allen's 3rd game this season with 375+ pass yards, 3+ pass TD, and a 130+ passer rating
He joins Drew Brees in 2013 as the only players since at least 1950 with 3 such games in a season @BuffaloBills
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 8, 2020
Allen also became the first Bills QB to lead the team to victory on Monday Night Football since Doug Flutie in 1999.
In Monday’s game, he ended up posting a passer rating of 139.1. Yet that was only Allen’s second-best performance of the season. His passer rating was 146.7 in a Week 2 win over the Dolphins.
Putting Up MVP-Like Numbers
Allen is currently on pace to pass for 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns. Factor in Allen’s work running the football – he’s scampered for 322 yards, 3.7 yards per carry and six TDs – and saying the words Allen and MVP together is not out of the realm of possibility.
Last month, FOX Sports cited Allen as their midseason NFL MVP, so there are pundits making a case for his candidacy. The Buffalo single-season record for 300-yard passing games is seven, set by Drew Bledsoe in 2003. He’s one shy of tying that mark.
Josh Allen lurking in the MVP race pic.twitter.com/A5eC0mJXKd
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 8, 2020
To earn an MVP for the first time, a player generally must turn in a performance that is in some way unique or spectacular. Last year’s winner, Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, set an NFL rushing record for QBs with 1,206 yards. Jackson also led the NFL with 36 TD passes.
Allen also is in possession of a qualifier in this category. His trio of 375-yard, three TD and 130 passer rating performances mark just the second time since 1950 that an NFL QB has done this in a single season. The other was Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints in 2013.
However, it should also be noted that Brees didn’t win the NFL MVP that season. Peyton Manning of the Denver Broncos was the 2013 winner.
Where Allen Comes Up Short
Consistency is also a trademark of an NFL MVP. It’s an even more vital quality when the player doesn’t hold a track record of playing at an MVP level.
Allen has endured three games where he’s thrown for 157 yards or less. He’s suffered five games in which his interceptions equaled or outnumbered his TD pass output.
Past MVP winners like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady might get a mulligan for an off week. Voters don’t tend to be as forgiving with a guy like Allen, who’s still seeking to establish his credentials as an elite QB.
Assistant favorite Qb, or assistant to your favorite Qb? https://t.co/LCl34Emxum
— Josh Allen (@JoshAllenQB) December 8, 2020
Allen’s numbers, while solid, don’t put him at the top of any NFL statistical category among QBs this season. He’s sixth in passing yardage and tied for sixth in TD passes.
The Buffalo QB rates eighth in average yards per completion (8.0), seventh in passer rating (105.9) and sixth in QBR (75.1). He’s fourth in completion percentage (69.9).
Allen vs Mahomes
When placing Allen’s performance alongside the work of Mahomes, the latter is the winner in virtually every category.
Mahomes shows a 31:2 TD to interception ratio. Allen is 26:8. Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yardage (3,815).
Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes
| 9-3 | W-L | 12-1 |
| 26-8 | TD/INT | 31-2 |
| 283.6 | Passing Yardage Per Game | 317.9 |
| 105.9 | Passer Rating | 113.8 |
| 75.1 | QBR | 85.7 |
| 6.5 | Average Yards Per Attempt | 8.2 |
| 69.9 | Completion Percentage | 68.3 |
Now that Pittsburgh has lost a game, Mahomes is also in position to be leading the Chiefs to the NFL’s best record for the second time in three seasons. He also leads the NFL in yards per game (317.9), QBR (85.7) and interception percentage (0.4).
Allen certainly shows the growth and potential to be an MVP in the future. However, that future is not now.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) -500.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
