McVay Favored to Repeat as NFL Coach of the Year; Can he do it?
- Sean McVay won the 2017 NFL Coach of the Year award
- He took the Rams from 4-12 to 11-5, atop the NFC West, in his first season as head coach
- The Rams’ head coach is now favored to win the award again in 2018
In January of 2017, Sean McVay was hired to be the next head coach of the Los Angeles Rams. At just 30 years old, McVay became the youngest head coach in modern NFL history.
But the Rams’ head coach quickly earned his stripes, turning a 4-12 team into NFC West-winners with an 11-5 record in his first season. Aside from grabbing the attention of the NFL, McVay’s efforts were also recognized with 2017 NFL Coach of the Year honors.
Heading into the 2018 NFL season, McVay is listed as the favorite to win the award again.
2018 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
| Coach | Team | Years w/ Team | Odds to win 2018 NFL Coach of the Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean McVay | LAR | 1 | +900 |
| Matt Nagy | CHI | 0 | +950 |
| Doug Pederson | PHI | 2 | +1200 |
| Anthony Lynn | LAC | 1 | +1600 |
| Bill Belichick | NE | 18 | +1600 |
| Pat Shurmur | NYG | 0 | +1600 |
| Kyle Shanahan | SF | 1 | +1600 |
| Mike Zimmer | MIN | 4 | +1600 |
| Jon Gruden | OAK | 0* | +1800 |
*Gruden was the head coach of the Raiders from 1998-2001. But this is his first year in this stint.
To see odds for all 32 coaches to win the award, just follow the table in the link and navigate to “NFL Season Props”.
Can McVay win Coach of the Year in back-to-back seasons?
It is extremely rare for the NFL to honor a coach who took his team from good to great. This award has generally been reserved for those who take bad teams and quickly mold them into good teams. This is why it’s so hard to bet McVay to win Coach of the Year in 2018.
Have a look at what the last five winners started with and what the result was:
Last 5 NFL Coach of the Year Winners
| Season | NFL Coach of the Year Winner | Team | Record the previous season | Record when they won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Sean McVay | LAR | 4-12 | 11-5 |
| 2016 | Jason Garrett | DAL | 4-12 | 13-3 |
| 2015 | Ron Rivera | CAR | 7-8-1 | 15-1 |
| 2014 | Bruce Arians | ARI | 10-6 | 11-5 |
| 2013 | Ron Rivera | CAR | 7-9 | 12-4 |
The only coach on that list who didn’t improve his team by at least five wins from the previous season is Bruce Arians in 2014. It was such a toss up between him and Rivera in 2013 – Arians turned a 5-11 Cardinals team into a 10-6 squad that missed out on the playoffs in his first season – that the NFL threw out their previous trend.
[E]ven Bill Belichick has never won [NFL Coach of the Year] in back-to-back seasons.
The league does not like recognizing the same coach over and over again for having great teams. Bill Belichick is evidence of this. The Patriots have won at least 12 games in 12 of his 18 seasons as the helm, yet he has only been named Coach of the Year three times.
But even Belichick has never won the award in back-to-back seasons. The last coach to do so was Joe Gibbs in 1982 and 1983.
Back-to-Back NFL Coach of the Year Winners
| Seasons | Back-to-Back NFL Coach of the Year Winner | Team | Record in 1st Year | Record in 2nd Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 & 1983 | Joe Gibbs | WAS | 8-1* | 14-2 |
| 1967 & 1968 | Don Shula | BAL | 11-1-2 | 13-1 |
| 1961 & 1962 | Allie Sherman | NYG | 10-3-1 | 12-2 |
*1982 was a strike-shortened season.
As you can see, the most recent instance was aided by a shortened season. Shula won it in back-to-back seasons when there were only 16 teams in the NFL. And Sherman did it when there were only 14.
In order for Sean McVay to win NFL Coach of the Year for a second straight season, his Rams will have to post a near-perfect record. It’s not a bet I’m willing to make, especially with those odds.
Where is the Value in Betting NFL Coach of the Year?
The oddsmakers clearly understand the criteria for winning this award, as they have a lot of coaches taking over bad teams atop their list.
But I’m not confident Matt Nagy or Pat Shurmur can do the same job McVay did. The Bears and Giants have too steep of hills to climb in their own respective divisions.
Whitlock: Doug Pederson and the entire Eagles organization are full of themselves. pic.twitter.com/RgumqAYSvA
— Speak For Yourself (@SFY) August 21, 2018
And though Doug Pederson may have a lot in common with Bruce Arians of 2014, the Eagles won the Super Bowl last year. So any sort of regular season struggles will be seen as a step backwards.
The name who keeps grabbing my attention is Kyle Shanahan at +1600. The second spot in the NFC West is open for the taking, and the 49ers have the luxury of playing the seventh-easiest schedule in the league, based on projected win totals. Plus, there’s a lot of room for improvement after a 6-10 record last year.
If you’re looking for a real darkhorse, sign me up for Vance Joseph at +2800. Joseph won’t be crafting any genius schemes that magically turns the fate of a 5-11 Broncos team from 2017. But Denver is a team that is still loaded with talent on defense, and now have a quarterback that is at least capable of protecting the football.
I’m not as confident in the strength of the rest of the AFC West as others are. And a team going from 5-11 to division-winners fits the recipe for a Coach of the Year.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
