NFC Championship Odds Favor Eagles (+175) Ahead of 49ers (+200)

• The Eagles are favored to win the NFC entering Wild Card Weekend
• San Francisco is the highest-graded NFC team per DVOA and owns the NFL’s longest active winning streak (10)
• Keep reading for the complete list of NFC Championship odds, plus analysis and predictions.

The NFL playoff picture is set and while you can make a compelling argument for three teams to come out of the AFC, the same cannot be said about the NFC.

The Eagles limped their way into the postseason, dropping two of their last three and barely beating the Giants practice squad on Sunday. Nevertheless, their 13-1 start to the season helped propel them to the NFC’s top seed, which brings home field advantage and a coveted first-round bye.

NFC Championship Odds

*Odds as of January 9 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo to bet on NFL Futures.

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Philadelphia is the favorite in the NFC Championship odds, but don’t boast the shortest Super Bowl odds among NFC contenders. That honor belongs to the 49ers, who enter play hotter than any team in the league.

The talent level and price tags of the rest of the NFC playoff teams dip dramatically after the top-two dogs, and quite frankly no one should be racing to the window to bet anyone but Philly or San Fran.

The NFC Pretenders

Let’s start with the pretenders. No team’s record is more fraudulent than the Vikings. This is a team that boasts a negative point differential despite owning a 13-4 record. They have the number one receiver and likely offensive player of the year in Justin Jefferson at their disposal, yet rank 20th in offensive DVOA.

Minnesota ranks 27th on defense per DVOA, which is worse than all but one other playoff team. Needless to say, they’re a pass.

NFC Playoff Teams Ranked Per DVOA

As are the Bucs, despite having Tom Brady at the helm. This Tampa Bay squad is a shell of its 2020 Super Bowl champion self, ranking 25th in weighted DVOA. Brady ranks 15th among quarterbacks in expected points added per play this season, which is worse than all but two other playoff starters.

Tampa’s defense meanwhile, has underperformed all season and is dealing with injuries to some of their most important players. They might sneak by the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round, but don’t expect this 8-9 team to go much further.

Speaking of Dallas, how can they possibly be trusted after the way they finished the season. They got blown out by a Washington team with nothing to play for in Week 18 and should have lost to the lowly Texans four weeks earlier. Dak Prescott has thrown a pick in nine straight games and finished the season with 15 interceptions in only 12 starts.

Dak Prescott and the Dallas cowboys look playoff ready 😈 pic.twitter.com/Z2rtdLpDJ0

— Mikerophone (@MikerophoneNFL) January 8, 2023

The Cowboys’ defense was one of the most dominant units to begin the season, but it’s not how you start it’s how you finish. Dallas ranked 19th in EPA per play on defense over the final four weeks of the season, behind bottom feeders like Houston and Arizona.

The Giants and Seahawks meanwhile, are nice stories but nothing close to serious contenders. Only two teams since 2005 have won three straight road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl and they were quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning. No offense to Daniel Jones and Geno Smith, but their games aren’t in the same stratosphere as Rodgers and Manning’s during their prime.

The NFC Contenders

Back to the Eagles and 49ers now. They’re clearly the class of the conference, but their NFC Championship odds should be reversed. San Francisco has won 10 straight games. They’ve scored at least 31 points in seven of those contests, and rank number one in the conference in EPA per play on offense since Week 7.

Their skill position corps of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle is arguably better than any team in football, and their defense just happens to be the number one unit per DVOA. They grade out first among NFC teams in coverage, and second in pass rush productivity per Pro Football Focus.

"The 49ers right now are the team most guaranteed to be in the Super Bowl. … This is the most dangerous 49ers team Kyle Shanahan has ever had."

— @getnickwright on why he thinks Brock Purdy can lead SF to a Super Bowl win: pic.twitter.com/aVSDhKaRVR

— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) January 4, 2023

If there’s a knock on them it would be inexperience at the QB position, but Brock Purdy has been playing at an extremely high level since he took over the job. He ranks fifth in EPA per play among QBs and boasts a 13-to-4 TD-to-INT rate. Purdy gets the ball out on time and lets his explosive receivers do the majority of the work in space. Exactly the recipe you need to be successful in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

The Eagles on the other hand, grade out nearly as high as the 49ers in most key areas, but here’s the problem: Jalen Hurts clearly isn’t healthy. That was evident in Sunday’s too-close-for-comfort win over New York, as Hurts was reportedly “hurting bad” according to his head coach. The bye week should give him time to heal, but Philadelphia simply cannot win if Hurts is operating at anything less than 100%.

That makes San Francisco the more deserving favorite. This is a team that’s just as capable of winning on the road as they are at home, and have the speed and athleticism to neutralize Hurts in a potential championship game even if he is healthy.

NFC Champion Pick: San Francisco 49ers (+180)