NFL Division Winners: 2017 Odds to Repeat in the NFC

Still speechless from that epic thriller they called Super Bowl 51? Are you left wondering what to do next? I’m not a doctor, but I’d say you’re suffering from a pretty severe Super Bowl hangover. And as they say, the best cure for a hangover is to crack yourself another one and have a nice long swig of more football. (I’d like to once again remind you I’m not a doctor.) At this party, we’re serving up fresh division winners, of the NFC brand.

(If you’d find a gulp of the AFC variety to be a little more refreshing right now, I’ve already got you covered.)

Not one single NFC division-winner from 2015 was able to defend its title in 2016. Not only did Washington, Minnesota, Carolina, and Arizona all watch another team take their crown, but none of them could even return to the postseason in a Wild Card spot.

It’s hard to imagine Dallas, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Seattle all missing the playoffs next season, but don’t expect them all to successfully defend their respective divisions, either. With free agency pending and the draft only a couple months away, there may be some major roster shake-ups to come. But that doesn’t mean we can’t take a look at the future based on what we know now. Here are the odds that each NFC division-winner from 2016 will defend its crown, and which rivals are lurking in the shadows, knives in hand.

NFC East

Odds the Dallas Cowboys repeat: 3/2

Odds to be dethroned by …

New York Giants: 2/1
Washington: 5/1
Philadelphia Eagles: 8/1

Forget about the young Cowboys falling in their first playoff game, this is a very good football team. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott give Dallas a lot to look forward to, and their offensive line is without a doubt the best in the league. Jerry Jones will look to add an edge rusher and an upgrade or two in the secondary this offseason. Even without any additions, the Cowboys should continue to run all over their foes.

The Giants were able to hand Dallas two of their three losses last season thanks to a phenomenal run defense (3.6 yards per carry). Unfortunately, their offense held them back all year. Eli Manning did not have his best season, but he also didn’t have the assistance of a running game (29th) or much protection. If the Giants can find some offensive linemen and a running game, they’ll be able to push Dallas in 2017.

Washington and Philadelphia are two teams that I won’t count out. The former needs to fill a lot of holes on defense, while the latter desperately needs some play-makers around its young quarterback. I don’t see either being able to close the gap between themselves and Dallas this season, though.

NFC North

Odds the Green Bay Packers repeat: 5/3

Odds to be dethroned by …

Minnesota Vikings: 2/1
Detroit Lions: 3/1
Chicago Bears: 19/1

In order for Green Bay to take the North crown back last year, Aaron Rodgers had to perform at a level we had never seen before in the second half of the season. It’s not reasonable to expect those same numbers from Rodgers next season, and Ted Thompson is tasked with ensuring it isn’t needed. Green Bay’s secondary was horrible (31st against the pass) and it wasn’t strictly due to injury. Of course, the return of Sam Shields, who only played one game in 2016, will help, but the Packers need a lot more than just one corner. Regardless of their despicable defense, Rodgers is the best player in the division and may be able to carry his team to another NFC North title.

After the first five weeks of the 2016 season, Minnesota was being called the early Super Bowl favorites. Their defense was reminiscent of the 2015 Broncos, but so was their offense. Sam Bradford performed well in his first season with the team, and will benefit from a healthy offensive line in front of him. The Vikings will need to pay left tackle Matt Kalil and right tackle Andre Smith, though, and don’t have too much cap space heading into 2017. If their defense can stay healthy and Adrian Peterson can resurrect the Viking ground game, they will push Green Bay.

Just as I explained with Oakland yesterday, I do not believe what the Lions did in 2016 is sustainable, specifically their eight fourth-quarter comebacks. Their defense may not be as bad as the Raider unit, but their offense isn’t nearly as good. Matthew Stafford needs the aid of a ground game (30th in 2016) and could use another receiver who can make a play with the ball in his hands. Even with those additions, it may not be enough to make it back to the playoffs.

Chicago will likely head into the season with either Brian Hoyer or a rookie under center, unless the team is willing to spend on someone like Tyrod Taylor. Whoever is at the helm may not have much around him. Alshon Jeffery is set to become a free agent and the Bear defense needs a lot of help in the secondary. Sorry Chicago, but I guarantee the Bears will not win the Super Bowl in 2017, and don’t give them much of a chance to win the division, either.

NFC South

Odds the Atlanta Falcons repeat: 2/1

Odds to be dethroned by …

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7/3
Carolina Panthers: 7/2
New Orleans Saints: 11/2

The Falcons were a play away from being Super Bowl champions. (Which play? I dunno, PICK ANY FROM THE FOURTH QUARTER!) Now the team heads into the offseason with the horrible memory of blowing a 25-point lead. Making matters worse, Atlanta is losing the man who constructed the league’s top offense, Kyle Shanahan, replacing him with former USC head coach Steve Sarkisian. The offense will retain basically all of its pieces, but can Sarkisian craft a game-plan and call plays as masterfully as Shanahan? On the bright side, Atlanta’s young defense really came on late in the season. The defense should be able to make-up for any setbacks the offense may suffer. And it will have to, because the rest of the division isn’t far behind.

If the Bucs can get consistent, turnover-free play from Jameis Winston (24 turnovers) and a little bit of help in the secondary (22nd against the pass), they will once again find themselves playing meaningful games in December. Winston has enough weapons to succeed and a pretty good offensive line in front of him. They have the cap space to make a run at a couple of the higher-priced free agents this offseason to fill their few holes, including finding a cheaper replacement for running back Doug Martin, who fell out of favor late in the year.

Carolina will patch-up its secondary, which was torched all season (29th against the pass). However, I don’t see their offense being able to return to its 2015 form. The Panthers are weak at both tackle spots; Jonathan Stewart is about to turn 30-years-old; and all the blows Cam Newton has sustained are taking their toll. Newton is not a prolific pocket-passer and likely never will be. His success was predicated on being a threat to run. If he’s not keen to take off anymore, the passing game will suffer, in turn. If Cam can help bring back the power running game, the wins will follow.

Though Drew Brees and the offense are good enough to compete for a championship, New Orleans’ defense is deplorable. The Saints gave up the second-most points in 2016, which was largely a result of their 32nd-ranked pass defense. The unit must return to respectability before the Saints are a threat, and there are too many holes to fill in one off-season.

NFC West

Odds the Seattle Seahawks repeat: 1/1

Odds to be dethroned by …

Arizona Cardinals: 5/4
Los Angeles Rams: 33/1
San Francisco 49ers: 40/1

Although Seattle’s defense may not be as dominant as it once was, it’s still a very good unit when intact. It would be a dealt a major blow if Earl Thomas does decide to retire. You witnessed how much the pass defense suffered without him in the lineup last season, and you can bet the team will be begging him to come back. Assuming Earl returns, the Seahawks should focus on improving the offense this offseason. George Fant can not continue as the team’s starting left tackle. When Seattle was contending for (and winning) Super Bowls, they sported a power running game. In 2016, they managed a measly 3.9 yards per carry. Young, dynamic backs Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise can’t create their own holes. Seattle will also need to figure out a way to travel better, after going 3-4-1 on the road.

On paper, Arizona looked like a good team last season. Their offense scored the sixth-most points and their defense allowed the second-fewest yards. Then you notice the 26 turnovers and their 7-8-1 record makes a lot more sense. Although he committed 18 of those giveaways, it’s hard to blame everything on Carson Palmer. He was under pressure just about every time he dropped back, playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The trio of Evan Mathis, Jared Veldheer, and D.J. Humphries only combined for 24 starts in 2016. Palmer is mulling retirement, but the loaded roster should be enough to sway him into coming back for another go. David Johnson might be the best, most versatile running back in the game and a 33-year-old Larry Fitzgerald led the league in receptions last year.

There’s not much to say about the last two teams in this division. Jared Goff has shown little promise to this point and Todd Gurley was one of the biggest disappointments from 2016. San Francisco may have a brilliant offensive mind running the team now, but Kyle Shanahan is taking over arguably the most talent-starved roster in the NFL. Neither California team has any chance in 2017.

Photo Credit: Thomson20192 (Matt Ryan) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons.