This Week’s NFL Off-Season Storylines: How Coaching Changes Are Impacting Odds
- Five teams were making coaching changes during the NFL off-season
- The New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos all have new head coaches
- How has this impacted the betting odds on those teams? The story below looks at this factor
Five NFL teams will be entering the 2023 season with new head coaches following off-season changes. Of those teams, three – the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers – were replacing interim head coaches who’d finished out the 2022 campaign after the head coach was fired.
Sean Payton is the new coach in Denver, while Frank Reich is taking over in Carolina. They both hold previous NFL head coaching experience. However, the other three newcomers – DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Jonathan Gannon (Arizona) and Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) – are all making the NFL head coaching debuts.
Current Super Bowl Odds After Coach Change
| Team | New Coach | Super Bowl Odds at Hiring | Current Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | Sean Payton | +4000 | +4000 |
| Carolina Panthers | Frank Reich | +6000 | +6600 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Shane Stechen | +7000 | +10000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | Jonathan Gannon | +10000 | +17500 |
| Houston Texans | DeMeco Ryans | +10000 | +17500 |
Odds as of June 12 at Bet365. Claim the Bet365 promo code to get a great bonus on NFL betting this off-season.
How have these coaching changes impacted the odds on those teams? Is it wise to wager on a squad working under a new head coach?
Let’s look at all of these angles and discover the answers.
SPORTSBOOK
Change was fairly effective in turning around the fortunes of NFL teams in 2022. Nine clubs opted to hire new head coaches during the off-season. Of those nine teams, four – the Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – qualified for the postseason.
Payton a Proven NFL Winner
After adding Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks in an off-season trade, the Broncos were entering the 2022 campaign with high hopes. However, it soon became abundantly clear that new hire Nathaniel Hackett was way in over his head as an NFL head coach.
Hackett was fired with a 4-11 slate. Interim coach Jerry Rosburg went 1-3 in his place. Both were coaching an NFL team for the first time. That’s certainly not the case with Payton.
Sean Payton with a very blunt message to the Broncos:
"The 'next step' is that cliche term. I hope all of [of the players] take the next step because last year’s steps were not good enough."
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) June 9, 2023
He’s bringing an overall NFL head-coaching record of 152–89 (.631). Payton has made nine playoff appearances and won seven NFC South titles, as well as the Super Bowl XLIV title with the New Orleans Saints. His was NFL Coach of the Year in 2006 and owns a postseason record of 9–8 (.529).
Payton worked with future Hall of Famer Drew Brees as his QB in New Orleans, so he should work well in tandem with Wilson.
Young QBs Hinder Teams Making Off-Season Coaching Moves
It’s tough to win in the NFL. It’s even tougher to win with an inexperienced QB under center. Three of the other four teams with new coaches all figure to be going with young QBs.
Panthers HC Frank Reich says that Bryce Young taking first team snaps this week was “the next step” of the plan he and GM Scott Fitterer are incorporating. #KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/XzsfU96iKa
— Sheena Quick (@Sheena_Marie3) June 8, 2023
The Colts (Anthony Robinson), Panthers (Bryce Young) and Texans (CJ Stroud) all took QBs within the first four selections on draft day. Arizona will be starting the season without #1 QB Kyler Murray, who is recuperating from knee surgery.
Last season, all four teams with new coaches that made the playoffs did so with experienced QBs at the helm – Tua Tagovailoa in Miami, Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, Daniel Jones with the New York Giants, and second-year man Trevor Lawrence for the Jacksonville Jaguars
One of These Teams Will Make NFL Playoffs
Here’s an interesting NFL betting trend to keep in mind regarding the five NFL teams that were hiring new head coaches during the off-season. History says one of them will be qualifying for the NFL postseason.
Since 2006 at least one team making an off-season coaching change has gained an NFL playoff position in every season.
Don’t bet any of these teams in the Super Bowl odds or to even take a division title. But wagering on one of them to be making it in the NFL playoff odds makes perfect sense.
Both Carolina (+190) and Denver (+195) offer decent betting lines for making the playoffs. The Broncos, with a combination of both a QB and coach who’ve won Super Bowls, look like the best bet to be postseason participants.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
