Patrick Mahomes Given Best Odds to Win Most Games Among Former Texas-Based QBs
- Among quarterbacks with Texas ties, Patrick Mahomes is favored to lead in wins
- The list includes names like Drew Brees, Baker Mayfield and Matt Stafford
- Is Mahomes the best bet, or is another Texas-based QB going to lead the group in wins?
Whether they were born there, went to high school or played their college ball in Texas, The Lone Star state has produced plenty of NFL quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Drew Brees highlight this year’s starting class of Texans. All three of them play on teams expected to win in 2019.
But the one expected to win the most? Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs
Which Texas-bred QB Will Win the Most Games?
| Quarterback | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | +150 |
| Drew Brees, NO | +200 |
| Baker Mayfield, CLE | +300 |
| Nick Foles, JAX | +400 |
| Matthew Stafford, DET | +500 |
| Andy Dalton, CIN | +1000 |
| Derek Carr, OAK | +1000 |
| Kyler Murray, ARZ | +1500 |
| Case Keenum, WAS | +2000 |
*Odds taken 09/06/2019
It makes sense to see Mahomes at the top of this list. While Brees led the class in wins (13) in 2018, he’s also 40 years old. When looking at NFL win totals, it’s a split decision with both at 10.5.
"I believe the team that's going to win the Super Bowl has the QB who's going to have the best season: Mahomeboy is going to bring it home. I’m going Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs over the Philadelphia Eagles."
— @ShannonSharpe makes his Super Bowl prediction pic.twitter.com/whwIm4C9SC
— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) September 6, 2019
Mahomes has a young, dynamic nucleus in Kansas City, and should finish atop the division. But there are some interesting names to consider.
Thinning the Field of Texas-bred QBs
The bottom four on these odds aren’t worth considering.
Derek Carr’s Raiders are a mess. Who knows what’s happening with Antonio Brown? Kyler Murray’s Cardinals are rebuilding, and it would be a shock to see him win this.
Case Keenum: Nobody expects much from us… #redskins pic.twitter.com/Pwh44NqGsC
— Kareem Copeland (@kareemcopeland) September 4, 2019
Nobody is expecting much out of Andy Dalton and the Bengals this year, and Case Keenum is at the bottom for a reason. He may be starting Week 1, but he won’t be starting the whole year.
And with the five remaining QBs we can divide them into two tiers.
Foles, Stafford Well Behind Top End Texas Products
One is in a system he’s grown up in. The other was helicoptered in to salvage a team with an elite defense. Both are dark horses in this race.
Comparing Jaguars, Lions, PFF Rankings
| 62.0 | Offense | 74.9 |
| 60.9 | Passing | 75.5 |
| 62.0 | Rushing | 70.2 |
| 60.4 | Receiving | 72.6 |
| 65.0 | Pass Blocking | 80.5 |
| 59.4 | Run Blocking | 59.9 |
Looking at these numbers, Stafford would seem to have the advantage. But Blake Bortles was the third-worst quarterback who played 50% of his team’s snaps last year.
While Foles didn’t play that many, he slid in at 20th among those who played 20% of their team’s snaps.
Old Faces in New Places: Greatest Impact@LFletcher59 ➡️ Nick Foles@BrandonTierney ➡️ Le'Veon Bell@amytrask ➡️ Frank Clark@adamschein ➡️ Odell Beckham Jr. pic.twitter.com/Inz9x8T6m0
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) September 4, 2019
A better QB means those other grades will rise for the Jags. And an Andrew Luck-less division makes Foles an interesting play at +400.
Ranking the Texas-bred Favorites
So now we get to the top three quarterbacks: Mahomes, Mayfield and Brees. One is the reigning MVP, one is leading the NFL’s favorite upstart, and the third is the grizzled veteran.
Comparing Mahomes, Mayfield, Brees
| Quarterback | PFF Rating (2018) | TD/INT (2018) | PFF Team Offense Rating (2018) | 2019 Strength of Schedule |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 93.2 | 50/12 | 88.4 | .520 |
| Baker Mayfield | 84.5 | 27/14 | 76.7 | .484 |
| Drew Brees | 94.7 | 32/5 | 85.5 | .488 |
Looking at the offensive numbers, it’s tough to see Mahomes and the Chiefs maintaining that dominance. With 2018 serving as his de facto rookie year, teams now have some film on him.
He’s an electric talent, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens in his ‘sophomore’ season.
Best QBR in last 2 seasons
Plays not ending in sacks
Patrick Mahomes (85.3)
Deshaun Watson (83.7)
Carson Wentz (82.1)
Drew Brees (79.9)If Watson stays on his feet, there's no reason he can't win the MVP award.
— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) September 3, 2019
Brees likely won’t replicate last year’s success either, but any slippage will likely be gradual. Sean Payton will be able to tailor the offensive approach to anything that pops up during the season.
Mayfield is in the same boat as Mahomes. The league has a book on him, but the one difference is the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. The league knows how Mahomes will use Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. But what’s in store for OBJ?
Expect Brees to Lead Texas-bred QBs in Wins
Given what we know, Drew Brees is our choice. Adjusting for expectations, the strength of schedule and division he has gives him the safest floor.
In fact, we would rank the favorites Brees, Mayfield and then Mahomes considering this is strictly wins.
The Pick: Drew Brees (+200)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
