Patriots AFC East Odds Lengthened to -200 After Loss to Colts

• The New England Patriots saw their AFC East odds lengthen from -300 to -200 after their loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15
• Indianapolis saw its AFC South odds shortened from +1400 to +1200 following the victory
• Read below for analysis on the AFC East and South races

New England’s seven-game winning streak came crashing to a halt on Saturday night in Indianapolis. The Pats got a dose of their own medicine, as the Colts ran all over them en route to a 27-17 victory.

Indy hung 226 rushing yards on New England, while forcing two Mac Jones interceptions. They also forced two turnovers on downs, and returned a blocked punt for a touchdown.

New England entered play as a sizeable -300 favorite to win the AFC East, and a top-four contender in the Super Bowl futures market. Their position in both of those categories has been lengthened, and they are now in serious danger of losing the division title race to Buffalo.

AFC East Odds

All odds as of Dec. 18th at FanDuel.

The Patriots are now listed at -200 in the AFC East odds, and the division title will likely come down to who wins the Week 16 matchup in Foxborough when they host the Bills.

Bills vs Pats for AFC East Supremacy

Despite New England’s victory over Buffalo in Week 13, they’ll likely need to beat them again to wrap up the AFC East. The Pats will take a one-game lead into that contest, assuming the Bills take care of business versus Carolina in Week 15. After their date with Buffalo, New England finishes the season with games versus Jacksonville and at Miami.

Welp….Bills beat Panthers tomorrow and next week at Patriots is for the AFC East lead with two games left.

— Sal Capaccio 🏈 (@SalSports) December 19, 2021

Buffalo on the other hand, has the Panthers on Sunday, at the Pats in Week 16, then finishes with two cupcake home dates versus the Falcons and Jets. If the Bills run the table they’ll win the division, even if New England wins its final two games. That’s because Buffalo will own the tiebreaker having one fewer loss versus divisional opponents. To summarize, next week’s game at Foxborough is massive.

Patriots Propped Up By Soft Schedule

New England’s rise to a top-four contender in the Super Bowl odds always felt like a bit of a stretch. Sure, they were at or near the top of most key advanced metrics, but those numbers were definitely inflated by a soft schedule.

Patriots beat Bills throwing 3 passes and running for 222 yards.

Colts beat the Patriots by completing 5 passes and running for 226 yards.

— Sal Capaccio 🏈 (@SalSports) December 19, 2021

Anytime a team wins seven games in a row it’s an impressive feat, but you can poke holes in most of those victories. They beat the Jets twice, who rank 28th per DVOA. They also beat the Browns without its top two running backs, and a hobbled Baker Mayfield. New England also defeated the Falcons and Panthers who rank 30th and 29th respectively on offense per DVOA.

Who sits alone atop the AFC after that Patriots loss?

⬇️⬇️ pic.twitter.com/pTi05a1qmg

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 19, 2021

The Pats victory over the Chargers was impressive, but weather played a major factor in their win over the Bills. New England threw just three passes, while Buffalo came away with only 10 points from five red zone trips. Had the game not been played in a wind storm, the result likely would have been much different.

Super Bowl 56 Odds

The Patriots loss to the Colts should reinforce the fact that this team is probably not as good as their record suggests. Oddsmakers have backed off New England a bit, lengthening their title price from +750 to +1100.

The Pats are not built to play from behind, and lack a true number one receiver. Jones has been the best rookie QB of this latest class, but he’s not going to win a Super Bowl throwing to Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne.

On the other side of the coin, Saturday’s result suggests Indy is a dangerous team and is at least somewhat live to win the AFC South.

Colts Still a Longshot to Win Division

The Colts are still a game and a half behind behind Tennessee in the division race, and will finish with games at Arizona and Jacksonville, and home versus Las Vegas. Considering they’ve lost twice to the Titans this season they’ll need a lot of help to pass them, but it’s not out of the question.

JONATHAN TAYLOR LOSES EVERYONE AND TAKES IT 67 YARDS TO THE HOUSE 💨

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/bxytCo7JJF

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 19, 2021

Tennessee is an underdog this weekend in Pittsburgh, and still has difficult home games versus Miami and San Francisco on its schedule before the season finale in Houston. Given the fact that their top-two offensive players Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are still on injured reserve, it’s not inconceivable that the Titans finish 0-4 or 1-3 down the stretch.

AFC South Odds

Indy’s price in the AFC South odds was shortened just slightly from +1400 to +1200, and at that number the Colts are intriguing. They have a soft schedule remaining, and the dominant effort versus New England should put the rest of the NFL on notice.