Patriots’ Odds to Make Super Bowl 55 Set at 16-1 After Loss to Chiefs – Are They the AFC’s Best Shot at Beating KC?
- The AFC Championship odds of the New England Patriots have lengthened to 16-1
- New England is 2-2 on the NFL season following Monday’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs
- The Pats were double-digit point underdogs in that game for the first time since Oct 21, 2001
It’s difficult to determine which stat was more telling about Monday’s New England Patriots-Kansas City Chiefs game.
Was it the fact that the Patriots were double-digit underdogs for the first time in nearly two decades? Or was it that the Pats were double-digit underdogs for the first time in 19 years and failed to cover?
New England (+11) lost 26-10 to the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium. The Pats are now 2-2 on the season.
The Pats saw their betting line in the NFL conference championship odds grow from +1183 to +1600.
2020 AFC Championship Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +170 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +260 |
| Buffalo Bills | +900 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +1000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +1400 |
| New England Patriots | +1600 |
Odds as of Oct. 6th at BetMGM
Their Super Bowl odds have also lengthened. New England is listed at +3000 to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots were at average odds of +1933 entering Monday’s game.
Patriot Gamesmanship
Considering all of the adversity the New England faced leading into Monday’s loss, it’s easy to paint a rosier picture of the outcome than might normally be attached to a 26-10 setback.
The Pats were minus starting quarterback Cam Newton (positive COVID-19 test). They had 40-year-old journeyman Brian Hoyer under center. Running back Sony Michel was placed on IR shortly before game time. Their flight didn’t arrive in KC until just hours prior to game time.
what does it feel like for Patriots fans to have a starting QB benched mid game. You have never really felt this!
— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) October 6, 2020
Despite all these distractions, the New England defense was able to hold Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to 236 yards and two TDs through the air. It took a late Tyron Mathieu pick-six to make the final scoreline look as lopsided as it was.
Defense Holds the Line
Yes, the Patriots were able to keep the Chiefs from attaining their usual heights. Head coach Bill Belichick’s ball control gameplan worked to an extent but they weren’t capable of coming close to completing the task at hand.
Scoring 10 points won’t win NFL games. This wasn’t classic powerhouse New England. It was more like late-career Muhammad Ali doing the rope a dope and trying to somehow escape with a win.
This is the 3rd time the Chiefs have been held without a TD in the first half since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018, including postseason.
Each of the previous 2 instances also came against the Patriots in Week 6 of 2018 and the AFC Championship in the 2018 season. pic.twitter.com/fvLIB93kbd
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 6, 2020
Hoyer, who’s lost his last 11 starts, was a disaster. He was sacked on the final play of the first half, costing the Pats a field goal. He also fumbled in the second half with New England in field-goal range. Replacement Jarrett Stidham was picked off twice.
In total, the Patriots turned the ball over four times. The defense was able to keep the dam from bursting for a time but eventually, the cream rose to the top.
In past seasons, Belichick and the Pats would’ve found ways to win a game like this. They went 3-1 to start the 2016 season when QB Tom Brady was serving a four-game NFL suspension.
A Dying Dynasty
Dynasties don’t go gently into that goodnight. Generally, they go off a cliff.
The Green Bay Packers went from five times in seven years from 1961-67 to 6-7-1 in 1968. The Pittsburgh Steelers won four Super Bowls between 1974-79 and then missed the playoffs in 1980-81.
The mightiest dynasty the NFL has ever seen, with six Super Bowls and 13 AFC Championship Game appearance since 2001, the Patriots took the field Monday as double-dight point underdogs for the first time since October 21, 2001. That was Brady’s fourth NFL start.
.@maxkellerman with high praise for the Cam Newton-led Patriots early in the season 👀
(via @FirstTake) pic.twitter.com/E1aFTXAgSe
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 1, 2020
This is the third time in four seasons that New England has opened 2-2. In 2017, the Pats won their next eight games. After opening 2018 at 1-2, they beat Miami in Week 4 to launch a six-game roll.
Even with Newton healthy, this New England team doesn’t seem capable of such runs. The Patriots had the NFL’s most COVID-19 opt-outs. They lost several pieces of 2019’s #1-ranked NFL defense. New England has allowed 27 points per game the past three weeks.
Are the Pats the best chance to beat the Chiefs? Let’s see what 4-0 Buffalo does against KC in two weeks time.
New England is still good enough to be a playoff team. The Pats are a notch below the AFC elite, however.
Don’t bet on them winning the AFC.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
