NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 12 – SBD Formula is 29-19-2 This Season

• Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, November 28th
• The SBD Formula is a red-hot 29-19-2 against the spread through 11 weeks
• Read below for analysis on the Week 12 NFL slate, plus against the spread picks for every game based on the SBD Formula

The SBD Formula put together another winning slate in Week 11, running its record on its top picks to 29-19-2 against the spread this season.

Week 12 on the NFL calendar continues on Sunday (Nov. 28th) with 11 more contests. With the help of the SBD Formula, we’ve identified three games to target in the betting market, which you can read more about below.

Week 12 Against the Spread Picks

Odds as of Nov. 25th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Our betting card starts in Indianapolis, where the red-hot Colts face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams are fresh off blowout victories last week, but it’s hard to imagine Indy being able to slow down Tom Brady and this juggernaut Tampa Bay offense.

Buccaneers vs Colts Pick Against the Spread

The Buccaneers opened as 3-point favorites, in the game with the highest total on the slate. The SBD Formula is predicting Tampa Bay covers the spread, although barely, but there’s reason to believe they can win in convincing fashion.

Not bad, formula https://t.co/abxcJsX6Cp pic.twitter.com/kR3xXd38EB

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) November 23, 2021

Everyone knows if you’re going to slow down Tom Brady, you’ll need to generate consistent pressure, ideally by rushing just four. That’s simply not something the Colts defense is capable of. Indy ranks 30th in pressure percentage, and bottom-six in QB hits.

Brady and the Bucs’ offense meanwhile, is fresh off scoring 30 points on Monday Night Football, and leads the league in points per game. They’re the number one offense per DVOA, and are a much different team with Rob Gronkowski in the lineup.

For the 100th time – @TomBrady to @RobGronkowski for the TOUCHDOWN! 💯#Kickoff2021 | #GoBucs

(Via: @NFL) pic.twitter.com/WgsmsWgM8g

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 10, 2021

Gronk returned last week to haul in six catches for 71 yards on eight targets. He’s one of Brady’s favorite red zone targets, and a key force in Tampa Bay’s run game. The Bucs are 3-0 in games Gronk has started and finished this season, with an average point differential of +15 per contest.

On the other side of the ball, all eyes will be on Jonathan Taylor after his 5 TD performance. Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns, but faces an imposing matchup on Sunday. Tampa Bay ranks fourth in rush defense DVOA, and will get a boost from the return of Vita Vea, one of the league’s premier run stuffers.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-110), 1 unit

Jets vs Texans Pick Against the Spread

Our next target, believe it or not, is the Houston Texans. The Texans are a 2.5-point home favorite over the New York Jets, a line which shows major value in the SBD Formula.

My @SBD formula goes 3-2 on its top ATS picks

Now 29-19-2 on the season https://t.co/mh3yTN8Gdt

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) November 22, 2021

No one is going to confuse Houston with a contender, although they have been competitive when Tyrod Taylor plays. The Texans are fresh off an upset victory over Tennessee, and are 3-1 against the spread in games Taylor has started. The matchup versus New York couldn’t be any more favorable, as the Jets rank dead last on defense per DVOA.

On the other side of the ball, Zach Wilson is back, which isn’t necessarily a good thing for New York’s offense. Wilson has the 47th best passing grade per Pro Football Focus, and has the highest percentage of turnover worthy throws among starting quarterbacks.

💲 Money Making Mitch 💲

📺 » @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/FoDAK6xrtT

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 21, 2021

The Texans defense showed major life last week, racking up a pair of sacks and forcing five turnovers.

Pick: Houston Texans -2.5 (-110), 1 unit

Steelers vs Bengals Pick Against the Spread

Last but not least, let’s target the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road versus Cincinnati. The Steelers are 4.5-point underdogs, and if there’s ever a time to back Pittsburgh, it’s when they’re getting points.

Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 29-7-1 against the spread as an underdog versus teams with an equal or better record.

The Bengals defeated Pittsburgh 24-10 in Week 3, but that hasn’t been common in the Tomlin era. Tomlin led teams are 20-9 against the spread versus Cincy, while Ben Roethlisberger is 24-9 straight up against the Bengals in his career.

Speaking of Roethlisberger, he showed signs of life in Week 11. Big Ben threw for a season-high 3 TD, as the Steelers racked up 37 points.

#AFCNorth #Ravens 7-3#Bengals 6-4#Steelers 5-4-1#Browns 6-5

Next Sunday: Steelers at Bengals, Browns at Ravens. And maybe (maybe?) some clarity on how this crazy crazy division is shaking out.

— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) November 22, 2021

Cincy meanwhile, handled Las Vegas on the road last week, but don’t forget they’re just two weeks removed from a home blowout loss versus Cleveland, and also lost to the hopeless Jets on Halloween.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 (-110), 1 unit