NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 13 – SBD Formula is 32-21-2 This Season

• Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, December 5th
• The SBD Formula is a red-hot 32-21-2 against the spread through 12 weeks
• Read below for analysis on the Week 13 NFL slate, plus against the spread picks for every game based on the SBD Formula

The SBD Formula keeps on rolling. Fresh off another 3-2 week on its best bets, the SBD Formula’s 2021 NFL record stands at an impressive 32-21-2 against the spread.

Week 13 on the NFL calendar continues on Sunday (Dec. 5th) with 12 more contests. With the help of the SBD Formula, we’ve identified three games to target in the betting market, which you can read more about below.

Week 13 Against the Spread Picks

Odds as of Dec. 2nd at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Our betting card starts in Pittsburgh, where the Baltimore Ravens square off against the Steelers for the first of two meetings between the arch rivals over the next six weeks.

Ravens vs Steelers Pick Against the Spread

Baltimore is currently a 4.5-point favorite in Steel Town, a number that the SBD Formula does not agree with. Yes, the Ravens are the AFC’s top seed, but they haven’t exactly set the world on fire over the past few weeks. They’re two games removed from a pathetic showing on Thursday Night Football in Miami, and over the past two contests they’ve scored just 16 points apiece.

Another 3-2 week against the spread for my @SBD formula’s most confident picks

Now 32-21-2 on the season https://t.co/u4NVcdJxhI

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) November 29, 2021

Lamar Jackson has been a turnover machine, throwing seven interceptions over his past three outings alone. Last week, Baltimore averaged just 3.9 yards per play versus Cleveland, and Jackson produced only 233 total yards, his second lowest output of the season.

Defensively, the Ravens rank below average in DVOA (18th), and are 30th in yards per play allowed over the past three weeks.

Brandon Williams on the advice Terrell Suggs used to give young players ahead of Ravens-Steelers: “This game will define you as a Raven. This game will prove if you’re a Raven or not.” pic.twitter.com/KCNqOytm3z

— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) December 2, 2021

Make no mistake, the Steelers are not a good football team at this point, but they’ve owned Jackson since he came into the league. They’ve held Lamar to an average of 184.5 passing yards over two starts, while forcing five interceptions. Jackson hasn’t been much better on the ground, averaging just over 4 yards per carry, while fumbling five times.

Dating back to 2008, the rivals have met 26 times, with each team winning 13 games. 20 of the 26 contests have been decided by one score, with 17 of the results coming by 4 points or less. Speaking of one score games, Baltimore is 6-0 since Week 1 in such contests. Negative regression is about to smack them in the face.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5, 1 unit

Washington vs Raiders Pick Against the Spread

Don’t look now, but the Washington Football Team is playing the best ball of their season. Washington has won three straight, yet is still a 2.5-point underdog in Las Vegas. The SBD Formula has the Football Team winning outright, and it’s not hard to see why.

"EVERYTHING WE NEED IS IN THIS ROOM"#WashingtonFootball | @MDLottery pic.twitter.com/egO42io5S7

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) November 30, 2021

Since its Week 9 bye, Washington has held Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Seattle to average of just 18.3 points per game. Antonio Gibson is finally healthy and running wild, while Taylor Heinicke has completed at least 72% of his passes in three straight, with a 5-to-1 TD-to-INT rate.

QB1️⃣ #WashingtonFootball pic.twitter.com/IDS6A3Q3Qa

— Chris Bryant (@HogfarmerChris) December 1, 2021

The Raiders meanwhile, were gifted a victory in Dallas last week thanks 166 yards worth of penalties in their favor. Prior to that result, Las Vegas had lost three straight by a combined 53 points.

The Raiders rank last in opponent points per play over their past three games, and have failed to cover in four of their past five home games. To make matters worse, they’ll be without Darren Waller, who led the team in receiving yards and targets prior to his Week 12 injury.

Pick: Washington Football Team +2.5, 1 unit

Giants vs Dolphins Pick Against the Spread

Last, but not least, let’s target the Miami Dolphins at home versus the New York Giants. The Dolphins are 4.5-point favorites, but the SBD Formula has them winning by 9.

Miami has reeled off four straight wins, and is now in the playoff conversation. New York meanwhile, has been decimated by injuries on offense. Daniel Jones is battling a neck issue, meaning Mike Glennon will likely get the nod under center. Glennon hasn’t won an NFL game since 2017, and has nearly as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (14) over the past five seasons.

From @GMFB: The #Saints are likely starting QB Taysom Hill on Thursday assuming his foot holds up today, while the #Giants are expected to start QB Mike Glennon this week due to Daniel Jones' neck strain. pic.twitter.com/lR7khibGZ4

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 1, 2021

The Giants will also be down their top-two receivers in Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard, which doesn’t bode well against the resurgent Dolphins defense. Miami ranks third in opponent points per play, and seventh in opponent yards per play over the past three games, and has yielded 17 points or less in four straight.

𝟐𝟓th interception.
𝟐𝟓-yard line.
𝟐𝟓, @Iamxavienhoward. ❌

Next up » #NYGvsMIA on FOX 📺 pic.twitter.com/r4Dvlm6ML3

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 29, 2021

Offensively, Miami ranks 11th in points per play over the past three games, putting up a season-high 33 points last week against a Carolina defense that ranks top-seven per DVOA.

Pick: Miami Dolphins -4.5, 1 unit