NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 18 – SBD Formula is 46-32-2 This Season

• Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season continues Saturday, January 8th
• The SBD Formula is a red-hot 46-32-2 with its best bets against the spread through 17 weeks
• Read below for analysis on the Week 18 NFL slate, plus against the spread picks for every game based on the SBD Formula

After a rare losing slate in Week 16, the SBD Formula bounced back with a winning effort in Week 17, going 3-2 against the spread with its best bets.

That runs the SBD Formula’s year long total to 46-32-2 with its best ATS bets, a hit rate of 59%.

As for this column, we nailed just one of our three best bets against the spread in Week 17 by trusting the projections, dropping our record to 10-5 over the past five weeks. Let’s see if we can rebound in Week 18.

Week 18 Against the Spread Picks

Odds as of Jan. 7th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Our betting card starts in Los Angeles, where the Rams and 49ers both have a lot to play for.

49ers vs Rams Pick Against the Spread

Los Angeles is currently a 4.5-point favorite versus San Francisco, a number the SBD Formula does not agree with. It predicts a Rams victory, but a 49ers cover. However, anyone who has watched these two NFC West rivals square off recently knows a Niners upset win is well within the range of outcomes.

My @SBD formula goes 2-2 (with PIT left) on its top ATS picks from Week 17

Now 45-32-2 on its top ATS picks this season https://t.co/QSxUXzA3fy

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) January 3, 2022

San Francisco needs a win to ensure its spot in the playoffs, while LA can clinch the NFC’s second seed with a victory. In a game of this magnitude, it should all systems go for both sides, unlike other NFL teams that are resting starters in Week 18.

San Francisco has beaten LA five straight times, covering in four of those meetings. Kyle Shanahan’s team has a strong ATS track record as an underdog, posting an 11-4 mark against the spread as a ‘dog since 2019.

Word out of the Bay Area suggests QB Jimmy Garoppolo will start after missing last week, which could work in the Niners’ favor. Jimmy G is 5-0 all-time versus the Rams, and has routinely exposed their weakness over the past few years.

“Jimmy just looks like Jimmy to me. Same confidence, same throw, same ball, same energy, same everything. I don’t think he took a step backwards. It don’t look like to me that his thumb hurts and he’s out there doing a good job this week."#49ers Deebo Samuel on Jimmy Garoppolo

— Jennifer Lee Chan – threads @jenniferleechan (@jenniferleechan) January 6, 2022

LA struggles protecting the middle of the field, which just happens to be Garoppolo’s bread and butter. The Rams rank 27th in defending passes over the middle per DVOA, and 31st versus passes over the short middle. If Garoppolo can go, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle will feast.

We mentioned last week Matthew Stafford’s struggles versus winning teams, and sure enough it happened again against Baltimore. After failing to cover versus the Ravens, Stafford is 31-52-2 against the spread all-time versus teams with an above .500 record.

.@mspears96 to @danorlovsky7 about Matthew Stafford's recent turnovers.

"For you to say you're not concerned about seven picks in like the last three weeks, that sounds kinda crazy to me." pic.twitter.com/1uqQC2xHxK

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 3, 2022

After a scorching start to the season, Stafford has struggled over his past 8 games. He’s thrown 11 interceptions during that stretch, including five in his past two outings.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +4.5, 1 unit

Chargers vs Raiders Pick Against the Spread

Next up, is a true must win game, assuming Indianapolis beats lowly Jacksonville earlier in the day. The Chargers are 3-point favorites versus the Raiders, in a contest that will in all likelihood decide the AFC’s last playoff team.

The SBD Formula is projecting a 4-point Chargers victory, which might even be shortchanging Justin Herbert and Co. The Chargers rank 10 spots higher than Las Vegas per overall DVOA, and 16 spots higher on offense. Earlier in the season when they met, Herbert shredded the Raiders for 3 TD in a convincing 28-14 victory.

Most games with 300+ passing yards

⚡️ Justin Herbert – 8
🏴‍☠️ Tom Brady – 8 pic.twitter.com/ItGqgENkCD

— PFF (@PFF) January 6, 2022

Led by Herbert, the Chargers own the NFL’s number three passing offense per DVOA, while the Las Vegas defense ranks 30th in expected points added per drop back, and 31st in pass defense success rate.

Justin Herbert is ridiculous. Runs away from the free runner and pins a sideline throw without breaking stride. pic.twitter.com/2mh99JHih5

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 6, 2022

Home field advantage hasn’t meant anything over the past five years in these must-win scenarios. The home team is 0-5 straight up in the final primetime game of the season, failing to cover in four of those outings.

The Chargers are as comfortable playing on the road as they are at home, posting three road wins versus playoff teams already this season (at KC, at PHI, at CIN).

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -3, 1 unit

Saints vs Falcons Pick Against the Spread

Last but not least, let’s target the Saints as 3.5-point favorites over the Falcons. The SBD Formula predicts a double-digit win for New Orleans, and that doesn’t factor in the Saints’ playoff motivation.

New Orleans needs a win and a 49ers loss to make the postseason, while Atlanta has already been eliminated from playoff contention.

The Saints rank fourth on defense per DVOA, and should easily handle the Falcons 29th ranked offense. On the other side of the ball, look for New Orleans to lean heavily on the legs of both Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill.

Best win pct since start of last season, among active QB

1. Aaron Rodgers .839
2. Patrick Mahomes .806
3. Taysom Hill .750
4. Josh Allen .719
4. Tom Brady .719

*min. 8 starts pic.twitter.com/6oQfEMYLq0

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 5, 2022

The Falcons rank 30th in rush defense per DVOA, while only four teams throw less often than the Saints. Speaking of Hill, New Orelans’ starting QB is 6-2 against the spread as a starter, including 2-0 ATS versus Atlanta.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -3.5, 1 unit