Public Betting Bills as 6.5-Point Underdogs in Week 16, But Sharps Picking Patriots

• Buffalo Bills pegged as 6.5-point underdogs in crucial AFC East matchup with the New England Patriots
• Public sports bettors have flocked to the Bills, who have won outright in four contests as underdogs
• Despite injuries to key personnel, including Tom Brady and Julian Edelman, sharp money continues to back New England

The Buffalo Bills will have their sights set on first place in the AFC East standings when they visit the New England Patriots on Saturday afternoon as 6.5-point road underdogs in the NFL Week 16 odds. Buffalo clinched a playoff spot last weekend with yet another steady defensive performance, defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers 17-10 as 1-point road underdogs, and has now attracted 55% of the wagers made on Saturday’s Bills vs Patriots matchup at Gillette Stadium.

NFL Week 16 Bills vs Patriots Odds

Odds taken Dec. 20

Bills Widely Exceeding Betting Expectations

The Bills have consistently exceeded betting expectations this season, posting outright wins as underdogs in four of their seven road contests so far this season, including each of their past two. Now sporting a 10-4 SU record, Buffalo can pull even with New England atop the AFC East standings with a win in Week 16, leaving them poised to end the Patriots’ decade-long reign as divisional champions.

AFC playoff standings: Steelers and Titans still battling for 6 seed.

Steelers finish at Jets, at Ravens.

Titans have vs. Saints, at Texans.

Ravens clinch 1 seed with just one win. Pats clinch AFC East by beating Buffalo this Saturday.

If Pats lose, it gets interesting… pic.twitter.com/U1CBT6VtRU

— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) December 16, 2019

The Bills have surrendered just 15.9 points per game, second only to the Patriots, and have regularly rewarded sports bettors this season, going 9-4-1 ATS including a sparkling 6-0-1 record away from New Era Field

The Bills have surrendered just 15.9 points per game, second only to the Patriots, and have regularly rewarded sports bettors this season, going 9-4-1 ATS including a sparkling 6-0-1 record away from New Era Field. Buffalo has also covered in four of their past five as an underdog by six or more points, including a 16-10 loss to the Patriots in Week 4 as a 7-point home dog.

Buffalo Defense Standing Tall

The Bills defense has been particularly effective against the rush, allowing just two total scoring runs over their past seven outings, and limiting opponents to 85 or fewer ground yards in three of their past five outings. The defense also stood tall in Buffalo’s loss to the Patriots earlier this season, surrendering just 74 yards.

"The Buffalo Bills defense had me jumping out of my seat. This team is built for January football."#BillsMafia | #GoBills pic.twitter.com/ahtd9IMatL

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 17, 2019

A smothering pass defense also provided New England quarterback Tom Brady with few opportunities in that contest, limiting him to a meager 150 passing yards and one pick, while keeping him out of the end zone. Last weekend, the Bills defense also limited Steelers pivot Devlin Hodges to just 202 yards and one scoring pass while racking up four interceptions. They also managed to contain emerging star Lamar Jackson to just 40 rushing yards, but still allowed the MVP favorite to connect on three scored.

Patriots Hobbled by Injuries

That bodes well going into this weekend’s clash against a Patriots squad that has struggled to produce consistent results since opening the season on a spectacular 8-0 SU run. Hobbled by an array of ailments this season, Brady has particularly struggled since suffering an elbow injury. In each of his past four appearances, he has failed to complete more than 52.8% of his pass attempts, and his 50.3% pass completion percentage since Week 12 ranks as the worst among NFL pivots who have played in at least four games.

When we talk about the inefficiency of the Patriots passing game, this is what we're talking about – some bad throws, some miscommunications. Very unlike them and him – meaning Tom Brady. The video certainly supports the theory of an elbow injury. pic.twitter.com/qYcWASHNqA

— Tony Massarotti (@TonyMassarotti) December 18, 2019

In addition, Brady’s favorite target, receiver Julian Edelman has also been hobbled by a nagging knee injury. And while he is currently listed as probable for Saturday, Edelman will also have to deal with freezing temperatures along with a tough Bills secondary.

Bills Searching for Offensive Breakthrough

But while the Bills look well-positioned to provide the Patriots offense with limited opportunities, it remains to be seen whether they can enjoy an offensive breakthrough at Gillette Stadium, where they have scored an average of just 15.7 points while going 2-4 SU in their past four visits.

🔥 🔥 🔥

After 15 weeks, 2nd year QB Josh Allen has NFL's 2nd highest passer rating in the 4th quarter (114) with 10 TDs (8 pass/2 rush) and ZERO INTs.

Allen is tied for 6th in total touchdowns and now has EIGHT career game winning drives.#NFL #NFL100pic.twitter.com/0NAM9FrflR

— Bills QB Watch (@BillsQBwatch) December 16, 2019

The Bills offense struggled to get going last weekend in Pittsburgh, marching into Steelers territory just once in the first half, and on just three drives on the night. Overall, the Bills have scored just 27 points over their past two outings, after averaging 27 points per game in their previous three outings.

However, Patriots’ injuries have not been limited to the offense. Cornerback Jonathan Jones has been ruled out for this weekend’s contest, while the status of Jason McCourty remains questionable. Despite the Patriots’ health concerns and the Bills’ steady success on the road, 58% of sharp money continues to favor the Patriots as 6.5-point favorites. But with New England’s success at the sportsbooks largely coming against teams out of playoff contentions, now is as good a time as any to follow the public money.

Picks: Bills +6.5 (-105); Under 37 (-103)