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Ravens and 49ers Favored to Meet in Super Bowl 54; See 3 Long Shot Matchups That Could Pay Out

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 5:35 PM PST

Lamar Jackson running with the ball
KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 22: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) cuts back during a scramble in the first quarter of an AFC matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs on September 22, 2019 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
  • Ravens riding 12-game win streak heading into playoffs
  • Can Saints shake previous playoff letdowns to make it to the title game?
  • Read below to find our longshot Super Bowl matchups

What’s in a top seed in the NFL postseason?

Looking back at the last 10 years, seven top-seeded AFC teams have made it to the Super Bowl, going 3-4 in those games. The NFC has had its top seed rep them in the big game five times, coming away with a 3-2 mark. Five times in the last 10 years have both no. 1’s faced off, the most recent being the Eagles beating the Patriots in Super Bowl 52.

This year, it’s the top-seeded 49ers in the NFC and Ravens in the AFC at the top of the NFL conference odds.

No surprise they’re also the favorite pairing combination of potential Super Bowl matchups.

Super Bowl Final Pairing Odds

Matchup Odds
Ravens vs 49ers +375
Ravens vs Saints +600
Chiefs vs 49ers +650
Ravens vs Packers +750
Chiefs vs Saints +900
Chiefs vs Packers +1200
Patriots vs 49ers +1600
Patriots vs Saints +2500
Ravens vs Eagles +2500
Ravens vs Seahawks +2500
Patriots vs Packers +2800
Ravens vs Vikings +2800
Chiefs vs Eagles +2800
Chiefs vs Seahawks +4000
Chiefs vs Vikings +4000
Texans vs 49ers +5000
Titans vs 49ers +5000
Bills vs 49ers +6600
Texans vs Saints +8000
Titans vs Saints +8000
Patriots vs Eagles +8000
Patriots vs Seahawks +10000
Texans vs Packers +10000
Bills vs Saints +10000
Patriots vs Vikings +12500
Titans vs Packers +12500
Bills vs Packers +12500
Texans vs Eagles +15000
Texans vs Seahawks +20000
Texans vs Vikings +20000
Titans vs Eagles +25000
Titans vs Seahawks +25000
Titans vs Vikings +25000
Bills vs Eagles +30000
Bills vs Seahawks +35000
Bills vs Vikings +40000

*Odds from December 30

Is it as easy as taking the top seeds and calling it a day? Is that really why you’re here? Let’s explore three long shot dance partner options to tangle in Miami for Super Bowl 54.

Likelihood of 49ers-Ravens

Before we get to our list of candidates, just know that San Francisco-Baltimore would be dynamite.

Baltimore just put the finishing touches on a regular season we’ve never witnessed before. Consensus MVP candidate Lamar Jackson led an offense that was the first to ever average 200+ yards passing and 200+ yards rushing per game. They led the league in scoring at 33.2 points a contest, and Jackson led the league in TD passes while also setting the all-time rushing mark for a QB in NFL history. His 1,206 yards on nearly seven yards per tote was accomplished in just 15 games.

But if there is a team that could knock them off, it could be San Francisco. They finished second in the league in scoring at 29.9 points a game, while also relying on a potent run attack, second behind Baltimore at 144 yards a contest. Defensively, they have the horses to at least give the Ravens some resistance. They rank first in passing yards allowed at 169.2 per game, though only a middle-of-the-pack  against the run, allowing 112.6 yards.

https://twitter.com/fourth_nine/status/1211496409616138240

The Ravens are no slouches on defense, either. They’re fifth in rush yards allowed at 93.4 and sixth in passing defense, surrendering just 207 yards through the air.

Longshot #1 – Patriots vs Saints (+2500)

After getting absolutely railroaded last year, the Saints shook off the stink of a missed PI call against the Rams in the NFC title game and came back strong, putting together a sparkling 13-3 season, even with Drew Brees gone for five games early in the year nursing a thumb injury.

While their run game has stalled at times this year – they were just 16th in the NFL with 108.6 yards a contest – Michael Thomas has proven to be the best receiver in the NFL, and the Vikings will have their hands full in the Wild Card round. Thomas was targeted 185 times, hauling in an NFL-record 149 balls for a league-best 1,725 yards and 107.8 yards per game. He is as close to automatic as a pass catcher in the NFL.

https://twitter.com/AllSaintsBlog/status/1209209183498915840

Assuming they can get through Minnesota at home, and the Seahawks rip the injury-riddled Eagles, New Orleans gets the Packers. Brees is clearly better indoors than outdoors, but will that matter against a Pack squad that wins so ugly, and can’t put together a full 60-minutes? Get to the Conference Finals and it’s either host Seattle or go to Frisco. At that point, it’s a 50-50 chance.

As for the Patriots, until I actually see them out of the playoffs before the final four, they have the potential to get to the dance, full stop.

Longshot #2 – Chiefs vs Seahawks (+4000)

Quietly, playing in the shadow of the Lamar Jackson mega monster that was tearing the league apart, Patrick Mahomes was getting healthy, stacking W’s and not exactly having to do things all by himself for the Chiefs to win. His down year is a season 75% of quarterbacks wish they could have. He completed 65.9% of his passes for over 4,000 yards, while throwing 26 touchdowns to just five interceptions.

He looks finally like the guy that laid waste to the league a year ago, and that’s a scary proposition heading into the playoffs. He also has the luxury of a defense that’s not the worst in the NFL anymore. In fact, since Mahomes’ first game back, when they lost to the Titans in a 35-32 shootout, the defense has been rock solid. In the last six games of the season, KC kept teams under 17 points five times, and held three teams to single-digit scoring.

The Seahawks are a wildcard literally (as they visit the Eagles this weekend) and figuratively. Russell Wilson cannot be counted out. Seattle was a whopping 10-2 in one-score games this season, and no matter the personnel around him, Wilson is able to mix in escapability with crisp passing to make the most of his opportunities.

Seattle should handle Philly, and they’ve already walked into Levi’s and beaten the 49ers. Whether they’re in Green Bay or New Orleans, Wilson is not going to be fazed.

Longshot #3 – Titans vs Packers (+12500)

While we’re here, let’s get after it. The mental hurdle the Titans will have to clear is right away, as they try to send the Patriots – the greatest dynasty that the NFL has ever known – packing on Wild Card weekend. Assuming Derrick Henry’s hamstring doesn’t desert him, the Titans have the best running back in the playoffs. He’s a battering ram of a man that can stomp out the resolve of any front seven.

If Tennessee can establish that run game, that plays right into Ryan Tannehill’s superb play-action passing game, which has lit the league on fire since he took over for Marcus Mariota in Week 7. The emergence of AJ Brown as a big-play, go-to target should also be a tough task for the Patriots to handle.

It’s crazy to think Tennessee can make the Super Bowl, but really, they’re among the best teams going right now. The Titans have soared to 7-3 under Tannehill, and have played well even in losses to the Saints and Texans. They’ll have to knock off the Ravens in the next round, but that same running formula could keep Jackson off the field in a slugfest of running and defense.

While I did mention the Packers haven’t looked great, they still employ one of the most talented QB’s in the NFL and sit as the 2-seed in an ultra-tough conference. The question is whether Aaron Rodgers can catch lightning in a bottle a la Joe Flacco in 2012. He’s been substandard by his usual lofty numbers, ranking just 21st in QBR, but still passed for over 4,000 yards with 26 TDs to just four picks.

Like the Titans, the Packers have a potent running game with Aaron Jones leading the way and Jamaal Williams providing reinforcements.  If the Smiths (Za’Darius and Preston) can keep getting pressure up front, and Rodgers could find a little more of his magic, it’s not out of the question for the Pack to hold court at home, then avenge a thumping in primetime in San Francisco.

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